WATCH OUT FOR JASON:

Of course I mean the months July through November, where markets seem to get a little bumpy, historically. As my friend and long time veteran of the markets states: Stocks don't GO up and down, they're PUT up and down, by those he calls the "they". Meanwhile talking heads and media writers scramble for likely reasons to satisfy the retail crowd's quest for answers.
Despite the terrible breadth of the market - 10 to 1 Decliners, record Volume on down days, the DJIA's worst weekly decline in 5 years, and a 15 year New Low level of 783, there is some positive data to report.
Over the past 60 years some 19 occasions occurred where a decline after a new high resulted - only 1 (1987) produced a Bear market. The Fed model looks like a 10-year Treas. at 4.8% vs. an Earnings Yield of 6.7%, corporate insider selling has slowed dramatically (7:1) and commercial hedgers are net long.
Last week produced some nice extremes: The McClellan Oscillator (ratio-adjusted) broke below -100, record short interest suggests an iminent rebound; the VIX spiked above 24 and looking back several years shows parabolic spikes which settle back on rising markets. The I.I. survey still shows a lowly 18% Bears, which preceded this selloff, but that figure is reported on Wednesday, the first day of the major decline.
Finally, the Bullish Percent dropped to a 54 reading, with 48 nearterm support, and the CBOE Equity put/call ratio is a mighty 72.
You might notice that I have widened the matrix below to include last week's figures (like the big boys do) for comparison sake.

Mktsentiment. 7/2/2007 Last Week..... .5Yr.HI...... LOW

DJIA ………. 13265...........13851 13668...........7286
Nasdaq………. 2562............ 2687 2707...............1114
S&P500…….. 1458............1534............ 1557..............776
CBOE Eq. put/call ….72................62 .87-5/04........46-1/03

VIX ………. 24.17……. 16.9...........................44 9/02........10.0-7/05

ISEE-call/put ……. 35……………….57......................28.......57 - 7/13/07
(>200/Bearish)

McClel Osc……………-103………..-36.......................91-5/04.........(81)-5/04
McClelSum……………-215……….. 157....................1568-6/03.......(726)-5/04

Newsletter Surveys:
Inv.Intel -Bull:…..…. ..53.9…………52.3..................62.9-12/04......35-6/06
Bear:………… 18.0………. 19.3 .....................38.2-3/03.......16-6/03

AAII-Bull/Bear ………44.2/36.8……41.8/36.7....n/a n/a
MarketVane Bulls…. 64………..69......... ……...........…74..............24
IBD: Short Interest- ….7.82………8.25……................8.25………. 4.0
Public/NYSE Spec.-…..6.85………..8.87……............…13.15……….1.0
Birinyi Blogger
Bull/Bear Poll …………44.2.36.8…25.7/34.3
Bullish%- ……….…54…………73...............................88 -2/04...... 46-8/04
*Insider corporate sellers..7:1………15:1
Sectors: Most Buyers: Finance
Most Sellers: Tech

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WATCH OUT FOR JASON: