Monday, July 23, 2007

SHOW ME THE MONEY!

The Money Show is back in S.F. this week, with a less than impressive array of names. Speakers of interest are Price Headley ( the only vestige of the Schaeffer circle this year), Harry Domash, local stock screening guru, Larry MacMillan and Dr. J Najarian for optioneers - corporate talkers are S&P, Vector Vest and Everbank amongst thousands of vendors. Pay speakers include Newt Gingrich and Elaine Garzarelli.
Sentiment indicators moved slightly to the cautious side after the large-Volume selloff days of last weeks option expiry. Bears increased their presence in the Birinyi blogger poll and AAII survey; Public shorting and short interest ( a 5-year high) rose appreciably, and the inflows to ETFs (hedgers, etc.) shot up, as you will see below. The CBOE put/call ratio also rose, and the ISEE underwent a revision - a new range has to be built for this call/put number.

Finally, the McClellan Oscillator got as low as -36, resulting in a Monday rally.

Mktsentiment. 7/20/2007......5Yr.HI........ LOW

DJIA ………. 13851...........13668...........7286
Nasdaq………. 2687............2627.............1114
S&P500…….. 1534............1536............776
CBOE Eq. put/call ….62............87-5/04........46-1/03

VIX ………. 16.9..........44 9/02........10.0-7/05

ISEE-call/put ……. 57...........299-12/04.......57 - 7/13/07
(>200/Bearish)

McClel Osc……………-36...............91-5/04.........(81)-5/04
McClelSum…………… 157..........1568-6/03.......(726)-5/04

Newsletter Surveys:
Inv.Intel -Bull:…..…. ..52.3...........62.9-12/04......35-6/06
Bear:………… 19.3 .........38.2-3/03.......16-6/03

AAII-Bull/Bear ………41.8/36.7....n/a n/a
MarketVane Bulls…. 69......... 74..............24
IBD: Short Interest- ….8.25…….8.25………. 4.0
Public/NYSE Spec.-…..8.87………13.15……….1.0
Birinyi Blogger
Bull/Bear Poll …………25.7/34.3
Bullish%- ……….…73...............88 -2/04...... 46-8/04
*Insider corporate sellers..15:1
Sectors: Most Buyers: Basic Mat'ls
Most Sellers: Basic Mat'ls

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance


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