EARLY EDITION -STILL IN PROGRESS

Below is a rough version of the Thursday close (before family vacation) in the new format process . Noticable extremes include the oversold McClellan Oscillator (Tom is bullish on the market due to extreme breadth and liquidity); on the flip side the Bullish per cent gave a 3-box SELL signal and the Investors Intelligence Bull/Bear ratio is complacent at 50+.

(Dow, Nasdaq and S&P updated to market close - gort3ster@gmail.com - in Brent's absence - comments/email on format change welcome)

MktSentiment	10/02/2009	Prev. Week	5 Year HI	5 Year LOW
DJIA:	9488	9665	14093	6626
Nasdaq:	2048	2090	2126	1114
S&P 500:	1025	1044	1561	683
CBOE Eq. put/call:	74	61	96-10/08	46-1/03
VIX:	28.3	25.6	90	8.8
McClellan Osc:	-68	-43	108	-100
McClellan Sum:	1290	1426	1568	-1514
Newsletter Surveys
Investors Intel.
Bull:	50.6	46.7	63	22.21
Bear:	23.6	24.4	54.4	16
AAII
Bull:
Bear:
Nova/Ursa Mutual Funds:	0.94	0.86	2.2	0.56
Baltic Dry Index:	2284	2163	11700	663
Bullish %:	82	86	88	2
Insider Corporate Sellers:	n/a	54:1	108:1	2.4:1
Mutual Fund Inflows:	-1.1B	-0.3B
ETF Inflows:	1.5B	1.5B

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance

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EARLY EDITION -STILL IN PROGRESS

SEPTEMBER SONG:

Back from vacation (briefly), but off again later this week. The blogsite is being tweaked to offer better customer-friendly viewing, so please bear with us. Past and future suggestions welcome.

After a 3-day and away correction the Bull seems to be on track as contrary opinion outvoted the media punsters about a mensis horribilis.

The McClellan Oscillator oscillated between a plus 45 (heralding the correction last week) to a negative 43 this week - an unusual swing. Mutual fund flows were still flat, with most money coming out of MMFs into Bonds in huge amounts. Longer term, there was a huge number of Insider Selling by key employes last week: 54:1. Bullish per cent is still toppy at record highs, Bulls/Bears ratios are mixed, with the AAII reversing to the Bear majority last week. And new highs were tremendous at 635 vs. 5 new lows - either a sign of strong breadth, or a toppy indication. Time will tell.

Here are the numbers:

MktSentiment	9/25/2009	Prev. Week	5Yr. HI	5Yr. LOW
DJIA:	9665	9783	14093	6626
Nasdaq:	2090	2126	2810	1114
S&P500:	1044	1065	1561	683
CBOE Eq.
put/call:	61	53	96-10/08	46-1/03
VIX:	25.6	23.6	90	8.8
McClellan Osc:	-43	45	108	-100
McClelSum:	1426	1436	1568	-1514
Newsletter Surveys
Inv.Intel				22.21
Bull:	46.7	47.8	63	22.21
Bear:	24.4	24.4	54.4	16
AAII-Bull/Bear:	39.1/44.6	42.0/40.0	n/a
Nova/Ursa:
MutualFunds:	0.86	0.89	2.2	0.56
Baltic Dry Index:	2163	2390	11700	663
Bullish%:	86	87	88	2
Insider corporate
sellers:	54:1	n/a	108:1	2.4:1
Mutual Fund Inflows:	-.3B	.8B
ETF Inflows:	1.5B	4B
VIX Volatility:	-4	-10	12	-22
VIX 1-month future:	-16	-18	2	-18
VIX 5-month future:	-4	-5	8	-7

www.mktsentiment.blogspot.com is a free weekly display of important contrary opinion statistics, with the disclosure that eventual fees may be paid to the author from readers clicking on the website and/or the small ad at the top of the column.

Readers can request being added to an e-mail distribution list alert by sending address to leonbrnt@aol.com without fear of selling their names to spammers or contracting viruses.

 

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance

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SEPTEMBER SONG:

EARLY BLOG:

Just like Jesse Livermore, when things get boring I take off to a seaside resort for a week off, so this issue will be short and early. Indicators remain overbought, especially the Bullish % at a near record 87, but breadth and sentiment do not indicate any cessation of the upside action. Possibly post-quad-witching next week will show some pause, but as Jason Trennert, the palindromic forecaster, says, more inflows are into bond funds than equity - no time for a top.

Here are Thursday's results:

MktSentiment	9/17/2009	Prev. Week	5Yr.HI	LOW
DJIA	9783	9605	14093	6626
Nasdaq	2126	2080	2810	1114
S&P500	1065	1042	1561	683
CBOE Eq.
put/call	53	60	96-10/08	46-1/03
VIX	23.6	24.1	90	8.8
McClellan Osc	45	35	108	-100
McClelSum	1436	1228	1568	-1514
Newsletter Surveys:
Inv.Intel				22.21
Bull	47.8	48.3	63	22.21
Bear	24.4	23.6	54.4	16
AAII-Bull/Bear	42.0/40.0	37.3/44.0	n/a
Nova/Ursa
MutualFunds	0.89	0.87	2.2	0.56
Baltic Dry Index	2390	2468	11700	663
Bullish%	87	84	88	2
Insider corporate
sellers	n/a	23:1	108:1	2.4:1
Mutual Fund Inflows	.8B	-.5B
ETF Inflows	.4B	-3.7B
VIX Volatility	-10		12	-22
VIX 1-month future	-18		2	-18
VIX 5-month future	-3		8	-7

www.mktsentiment.blogspot.com is a free weekly display of important contrary opinion statistics, with the disclosure that eventual fees may be paid to the author from readers clicking on the website and/or the small ad at the top of the column.

Readers can request being added to an e-mail distribution list alert by sending address to leonbrnt@aol.com without fear of selling their names to spammers or contracting viruses.

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance

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EARLY BLOG:

"DOT COM" RECOVERY? www:

Two Vs make a W, but ex-Merrill economist Dave Rosenberg thinks the Recovery will be a series of w's, and a V Recovery has about a zero chance due to Deflation at the end of a 25-year Credit cycle. He says there are 3 components of Inflation: Wages, Credit and Rents, all of which are headed downward.
 
Recently I've been following the VIX and its 1- and 5-month futures to see if there is a predictive correlation; still too early,but last week the 1-month hit a new % low (lower VIX usually means a calmer (UP market).Starting this week I shall add it to the Indicators and let readers be the judge.

Breadth is very strong (Advance/ Decline and New Highs), but in a rather overbought zone - Bullish % at 84, McClellan Summation in the +1200s.

Next week's blog will be abbreviated and early, due to a Contrarian vacation after the crowds have left the California seashores.

Here are the numbers from last week:
 

MktSentiment	9/11/2009	Prev. Week	5Yr.HI	LOW
DJIA	9605	9441	14093	6626
Nasdaq	2080	2018	2810	1114
S&P500	1042	1016	1561	683
CBOE Eq.
put/call	60	64	96-10/08	46-1/03
VIX	24.1	25.3	90	8.8
McClellan Osc	35	-11	108	-100
McClelSum	1228	1114	1568	-1514
Newsletter Surveys:
Inv.Intel				22.21
Bull	48.3	50.6	63	22.21
Bear	23.6	24.1	54.4	16
AAII-Bull/Bear	37.3/44.0	38.0/38.0	n/a
Nova/Ursa
MutualFunds	0.87	1.04	2.2	0.56
Baltic Dry Index	2468	2415	11700	663
Bullish%-	84	81	88	2
*Insider corporate
sellers	n/a	108:1	2.4:1
Mutual Fund Inflows	-.5B	-1.1B
ETF Inflows	.4B	-3.7B
VIX Volatility	-12		12	-22
VIX 1-month future	-18		2	-18
VIX 5-month future	-3		8	-7

www.mktsentiment.blogspot.com is a free weekly display of important contrary opinion statistics, with the disclosure that eventual fees may be paid to the author from readers clicking on the website and/or the small ad at the top of the column.

Readers can request being added to an e-mail distribution list alert by sending address to leonbrnt@aol.com without fear of selling their names to spammers or contracting viruses.

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance

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"DOT COM" RECOVERY? www:

LABOR PAINS:

As investors breathlessly await the opening of the post-Labor Day trading, with the unholy combination of Congress and large investors returning to work, despite all the media hoopla about the month of September, last year's Lehman disaster and 9/11, most Sentiment Indicators do seem too bullish on the market to be bullish for the market! Usually media hype is the KOD (Kiss Of Death) to a contrarian (that's why they called it a medium!).

Stretched high are the Bullish % (stocks on a BUY signal) still over 80; Inv.Intell. Bulls, still over 50 -although the AAII ratio is 38:38. Breadth-wise, although the New Highs to Lows is huge, the McClellan charts are neutral. Mutual Fund flows turned to Outflows last week, but a new season, just as in football, begins next week. 

One surprising indicator that caught this writer's attention was the high CEO/Insider selling last week, at 29:1, the highest since August 7, a week before a selloff. Looking back I noticed high readings before just about all minor selloffs (within a downtrend) at dates: 7/31/09; 5/8/09; 4/17/09 - huge in the midst of a large rally; in '08 9/18 , 6/6, and 4/18 presaged at least cessations of the upmove, as did 10/10/07 and 12/14/07. But it sure did miss the big selloff in the first past of this year!!! 

Here are the stats: 

MktSentiment	9/04/2009	Prev. Week	5 Year HI	5 Year LOW
DJIA:	9441	9544	14093	6626
Nasdaq:	2018	2028	2810	1114
S&P 500:	1016	1028	1561	683
CBOE Eq. put/call:	64	58	96-10/08	46-1/03
VIX:	25.3	24.3	90	8.8
McClellan Osc:	-11	-3	108	-100
McClellan Sum:	1114	1345	1568	-1514
Newsletter Surveys
Investors Intel.
Bull:	50.6	51.5	63	22.2
Bear:	24.1	19.8	54.4	16
AAII
Bull:	38.0	34.0	n/a
Bear:	38.0	48.5	n/a
Nova/Ursa Mutual Funds:	1.04	0.95	2.2	0.56
Baltic Dry Index:	2415	2421	11700	663
Bullish %:	81	83	88	2
Insider Corporate Sellers:	29:1	21:1	108:1	2.4:1
Mutual Fund Inflows:	-1.1B	0.4B
ETF Inflows:	-5B	3.8B

www.mktsentiment.blogspot.com is a free weekly display of important contrary opinion statistics, with the disclosure that eventual fees may be paid to the author from readers clicking on the website and/or the small ad at the top of the column. 

Readers can request being added to an e-mail distribution list alert by sending address to leonbrnt@aol.com without fear of selling their names to spammers or contracting viruses.

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance

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LABOR PAINS:

BOW-WOW!:

The above title is the best way I can describe last week's Best Of Wyckoff seminar (please see www.tsaasf.org for details); my figuring estimates that the mostly filled large auditorium at GGU received approximately $500 worth of trading information based on faculty instruction class fees for a ridiculously low $5, $25 for non-members, more for CE credits for CFPs. 

Much of the material presented was about trader behavior and risk, especially by GGU Professor and one-time partner of Martin Pring's management group, Bruce Fraser echoing the thought that everything we learn in life is diametrically opposed to what you need to do in successful trading - making the tough decisions (similar to what Congress and the government is currently facing). 

Although the overall feeling ( Wyckoff, pt.& figure, etc.) was Bullish, few of the Indicators are now reflecting that: the newsletter surveys - the Inv.Intelligence Bull/Bear ratio is an incredulous over 50 to under 20, although we see the AAII switching within 2 weeks from + 18 to - 14 inversion (see below) in direct contrast. 

Other indications of a very strong market needing a pause include the Bullish % creeping up to the record high at 83% of stocks on a BUY signal and the NY new highs at 247 to...2. All else is rather tepid, for now. 

Volume remains a mystery with the dark pools off the radar, 5 low price stocks commanding incredible volume (30% of the NYSE alone). 

Encyclopedist Thomas Bulkowski even sees the failure rate of the most common chart formations rising recently, albeit from a very low level over 20 years. 

Here are the statistics: 

MktSentiment	8/28/2009	Prev. Week	5 Year HI	5 Year LOW
DJIA:	9544	9505	14093	6626
Nasdaq:	2028	2020	2810	1114
S&P 500:	1028	1026	1561	683
CBOE Eq. put/call:	58	55	96-10/08	46-1/03
VIX:	24.3	25.0	90	8.8
McClellan Osc:	-3	25	108	-100
McClellan Sum:	1345	1302	1568	-1514
Newsletter Surveys
Investors Intel.
Bull:	51.5	48.3	63	22.2
Bear:	19.8	23.1	54.4	16
AAII
Bull:	34.0	51.0	n/a
Bear:	48.5	33.0	n/a
Nova/Ursa Mutual Funds:	0.95	0.84	2.2	0.56
Baltic Dry Index:	2421	2468	11700	663
Bullish %:	83	81	88	2
Insider Corporate Sellers:	21:1	16:1	108:1	2.4:1
Mutual Fund Inflows:	0.4B	0
ETF Inflows:	3.8B	-1B

www.mktsentiment.blogspot.com is a free weekly display of important contrary opinion statistics, with the disclosure that eventual fees may be paid to the author from readers clicking on the website and/or the small ad at the top of the column.

Readers can request being added to an e-mail distribution list alert by sending address to leonbrnt@aol.com without fear of selling their names to spammers or contracting viruses.

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance

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BOW-WOW!:

A DAY EARLY AND A DOLLAR SHORT:

This week's blog comes a day earlier than usual due to a family visitation; the dollar short is an alert that on CNBC, Bob Prechter (as usual) went against huge conventional wisdom in calling for a rise in the dollar, due to massive sentiment against it - Only 3% Bulls vs. 97% back in March. 

This year's Money Show was well attended, but lacked star power and interesting speakers. For the price (free) it is always worth checking out, if only as a refresher of trading systems, options, etc. IBD and TOS (Thinkorswim) had large representation. 

Last week's caution signal didn't last very long (through Monday, which was indeed ugly); I attribute this failure to the plethora of media pundits all calling for the correction -therefore it won't happen, at least right away. One reader of this column thoughtfully opined that in January of '08 the CBOE put/call ratio gave a false signal, giving way to my premise from my matrix that although all bottoms coincided with an exceptionally high reading, not all high readings coincide with a bottom! 

Volume on the NYSE is weak, usual for this time of year (wait until after Labor Day!), but it is 20% higher than last year. Last week's strong action pushed most indicators to the mean, except for the Bullish %, one of the more reliable ones. 

My new, recent indicator the VIX and its futures, is showing higher volatility in the present than farther out - still too early in testing to be sure. 

Breadth is very strong, and the AAII survey shows a complete reversal off the 51% Bulls of the previous one. 

Here are the numbers: 

MktSentiment	8/21/2009	Prev. Week	5 Year HI	5 Year LOW
DJIA:	9505	9321	14093	6626
Nasdaq:	2020	1985	2810	1114
S&P 500:	1026	1004	1561	683
CBOE Eq. put/call:	55	59	96-10/08	46-1/03
VIX:	25.0	24.3	90	8.8
McClellan Osc:	25	-15	108	-100
McClellan Sum:	1302	1378	1568	-1514
Newsletter Surveys
Investors Intel.
Bull:	48.3	49.4	63	22.2
Bear:	23.1	21.3	54.4	16
AAII
Bull:	51.0	50.0	n/a
Bear:	33.0	35.2	n/a
Nova/Ursa Mutual Funds:	0.84	0.96	2.2	0.56
Baltic Dry Index:	2468	2752	11700	663
Bullish %:	81	81	88	2
Insider Corporate Sellers:	16:1	21:1	108:1	2.4:1
Mutual Fund Inflows:	0	0.7B
ETF Inflows:	-1B	-0.3B

www.mktsentiment.blogspot.com is a free weekly display of important contrary opinion statistics, with the disclosure that eventual fees may be paid to the author from readers clicking on the website and/or the small ad at the top of the column.

Readers can request being added to an e-mail distribution list alert by sending address to leonbrnt@aol.com without fear of selling their names to spammers or contracting viruses.

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance

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A DAY EARLY AND A DOLLAR SHORT: