More POOR Than STANDARD

The S&P 500 took a slight hiccup last week (25 points), a little over 1% - hardly the June correction we've been expecting - we still have option expiry, summer solstice, and quarterly rebalancing to go yet.

Standout Sentiment numbers last week included the Inv. Intell. Bulls near a record of 62%, the same number as the ratio of Insider Sellers to Buyers, as stated by Sectors. Individual tallies, officers/board members as well as 10% stockholders showed a fairly high number again, but not climactic.

Funnily enough, the record since I've been keeping these (around a decade), the highest number of Sector Selling was in May of 2009 - just when this huge Bull market was getting started - Go Figure.
Also at a recent record, for whatever it is worth, is the 2-year Treas. interest rate, at 0.45%

Here are the numbers:

Date>		6/13/2014	6/6/2014
Indices:	DJIA	16775	16924
	NAZ	4310	4321
	SPX	1936	1949
WklyVolume (Bshs).	naz/ny	8.9/2.9	8.4/3.1
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish		3.07	2.71
Sentiment:	put/call-CBOE	51	51
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8		12.2	10.7
Advance/Dec-NYSE..		1302/1910	2093/1135
Weekly Net:		-608	958
Cumulative:		162390	162998
Weekly	NYSE hi/low	492/41	574/66
New Hi's/Low's	Nasdaq h/l	288/68	237/137
McClellan	Oscillator	-8	35
McClellanSum	.+750/-1000	950	915
Newsletter	Inv.Intel -Bull:tues	62.6	62.2
Surveys	Bear:-5yrs	17.2	17.4
	AAII  -Bull :wed.	44.7	39.5
	Bear	21.3	22.2
COT:SPX w/w	large/small (net)k	11/(9)	4k/3k
COT:gold  comm.hedg	long-short.000	(85k)	(64K)
CEOinsider	selling	62:1	26:1
off.&bd b/s.vs.	10% holder b/s	180:40	170:50
3-box rev	Bullish%-	82	78
US equity -ICI	Fund Flows	WeekDelay	(2.0B)
MMF flows	Change in $B	2.6B	2.6B
MargDebt- top (300M)	monthly		APR.
ETF:mthlyEqty/	Int'l/Bond-$B		APR.
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation		0.45%nh	0.41%

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance

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More POOR Than STANDARD

DEJA VIEW

Under glassy eyes, the markets keep inching forward to new highs - strong breadth, but continued weak Volume. Even the complacent CBOE put/call ratio is at mid-range -50-, while the VIX slips into the 10 handle. Not since 2007 has it held at that range, just before the SPX got cut in half.

The I.I. (Investors Intelligence) Bulls are at 62.2% - the second highest EVER. NY new highs are almost ten to one.
Here are the numbers- for more commentary, click on:   http://www.examiner.com/stock-market-in-san-francisco/brent-leonard

(You can get the FREE Examiner.com column weekly by clicking on SUBSCRIBE)

Date>		6/6/2014	5/30/2014
Indices:	DJIA	16924	16717
	NAZ	4321	4242
	SPX	1949	1923
WklyVolume (Bshs).	naz/ny	8.4/3.1	7.0/2.7*
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish		2.71	2.59
Sentiment:	put/call-CBOE	51	54
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8		10.7	11.4
Advance/Dec-NYSE..		2093/1135	2118/1091
Weekly Net:		958	1027
Cumulative:		162998	162040
Weekly	NYSE hi/low	574/66	425/62
New Hi's/Low's	Nasdaq h/l	237/137	182/83
McClellan	Oscillator	35	24
McClellanSum	.+750/-1000	915	855
Newsletter	Inv.Intel -Bull:tues	62.2	58.3
Surveys	Bear:-5yrs	17.4	17.3
	AAII  -Bull :wed.	39.5	36.5
	Bear	22.2	23.2
COT:SPX w/w	large/small (net)k	4k/3k	10k/2k
COT:gold  comm.hedg	long-short.000	(64K)	(79k)
CEOinsider	selling	26:1	25:1
off.&bd b/s.vs.	10% holder b/s	170:50	175:35
3-box rev	Bullish%-	78	76
US equity -ICI	Fund Flows	WeekDelay	(2.6B)
MMF flows	Change in $B	2.6B	3.3B
MargDebt- top (300M)	monthly	APR.	437B
ETF:mthlyEqty/	Int'l/Bond-$B	APR.	1056/412/263
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation		0.41%	0.38%

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance

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DEJA VIEW

Will June Swoon Soon?

The stock market is like Lance Armstrong - hopefully it ends better! With the Fed as EPO it just keeps moving higher by bits, wiping out most downturns intraday. Even most Sentiment Indicators are glassy-eyed, with the exception of the VIX - it has closed below 12 about the same number of days (5) as the S&P 500 (SPX) has been above the double-zero 1900; this aborted my filter of 3 days closing above Resistance, and bodes well for higher prices.

Still, we have to get through June, the mid-term election jinx month; notable extremes to Sentiment include the Inv. Intell. Bull/Bear ratio still above 3:1 Bulls, at 58 to 17. Commercial gold sellers have finally backed off, as have insider sellers and even margin debt, despite low interest rates.

Here are the numbers (with the latest monthly ETF amounts for April:

Date>		5/30/2014	5/23/2014
Indices:	DJIA	16717	16606
	NAZ	4242	4185
	SPX	1923	1900
WklyVolume (Bshs).	naz/ny	7.0/2.7*	8.4/3.0
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish		2.59	2.8
Sentiment:	put/call-CBOE	54	63
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8		11.4	11.4
Advance/Dec-NYSE..		2118/1091	2107/1115
Weekly Net:		1027	992
Cumulative:		162040	161013
Weekly	NYSE hi/low	425/62	290/78
New Hi's/Low's	Nasdaq h/l	182/83	111/156
McClellan	Oscillator	24	15
McClellanSum	.+750/-1000	855	747
Newsletter	Inv.Intel -Bull:tues	58.3	57.2
Surveys	Bear:-5yrs	17.3	18.3
	AAII  -Bull :wed.	36.5	30.3
	Bear	23.2	26.4
COT:SPX w/w	large/small (net)k	10k/2k	8k/8k
COT:gold  comm.hedg	long-short.000	(79k)	(106K)
CEOinsider	selling	25:1	17::1
off.&bd b/s.vs.	10% holder b/s	175:35	160:20
3-box rev	Bullish%-	76	74
US equity -ICI	Fund Flows	WeekDelay	(1.8B)
MMF flows	Change in $B	3.3B	(3.9B)
MargDebt- top (300M)	monthly	437B	APR.
ETF:mthlyEqty/	Int'l/Bond-$B	1056/412/263	APR.
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation		0.38%	0.35%

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance

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Will June Swoon Soon?

Memorial Day - Forgetable Week

Despite record highs in the DJIA and SPX (S&P 500) last week, most Sentiment Indicators were well within their zones. Only standout (due to the above records) was the VIX, which slipped down below 12, to 11.4. Looking at short and long term charts of the VIX, this level was usually followed shortly by a sharp upturn within a few days - meaning a correction of some measure should be in the offing - possibly after the first day of the month, which is traditionally the biggest up day of any month (??).

Here are the numbers:

Date>		5/23/2014	5/16/2014
Indices:	DJIA	16606	16491
	NAZ	4185	4090
	SPX	1900	1877
WklyVolume (Bshs).	naz/ny	8.4/3.0	9.2/3.4
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish		2.8	2.71
Sentiment:	put/call-CBOE	63	64
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8		11.4	12.4
Advance/Dec-NYSE..		2107/1115	1694/1505
Weekly Net:		992	189
Cumulative:		161013	160021
Weekly	NYSE hi/low	290/78	300/91
New Hi's/Low's	Nasdaq h/l	111/156	122/216
McClellan	Oscillator	15	-15
McClellanSum	.+750/-1000	747	770
Newsletter	Inv.Intel -Bull:tues	57.2	55.1
Surveys	Bear:-5yrs	18.3	19.4
	AAII  -Bull :wed.	30.3	33.1
	Bear	26.4	22.6
COT:SPX w/w	large/small (net)k	8k/8k	12k/10k
COT:gold  comm.hedg	long-short.000	(106K)	(102k)
CEOinsider	selling	17::1	15:1finance
off.&bd b/s.vs.	10% holder b/s	160:20	160:40
3-box rev	Bullish%-	74	71
US equity -ICI	Fund Flows	WeekDelay	(2.3B)
MMF flows	Change in $B	(3.9B)	(3.1B)
MargDebt- top (300M)	monthly	450B	MAR.
ETF:mthlyEqty/	Int'l/Bond-$B	1049/401/259	MAR.
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation		0.35%	0.36%

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance

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Memorial Day - Forgetable Week

MISSING ACCOMPLISHED

In observance of my weekly vacation the markets went on a wild ride last week, with the S&P 500 (SPX) going from a Friday-to-Friday close of 1878 all the way to ......1878! Most all of the Sentiment Indicators were on hold, midrange with another holiday on the horizon.
Apparently the Sell in May crowd also spread to the Buy in May crowd, both taking the week off , with this week looking the same. Even the Insider sellers slowed down their selling.

Here are the numbers:

Date>		5/16/2014	5/9/2014
Indices:	DJIA	16491	16583
	NAZ	4090	4138
	SPX	1877	1884
WklyVolume (Bshs).	naz/ny	9.2/3.4	10.2/3.4
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish		2.71	3
Sentiment:	put/call-CBOE	64	68
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8		12.4	12.9
Advance/Dec-NYSE..		1694/1505	1527/1693
Weekly Net:		189	-166
Cumulative:		160021	159832
Weekly	NYSE hi/low	300/91	322/137
New Hi's/Low's	Nasdaq h/l	122/216	103/303
McClellan	Oscillator	-15	16
McClellanSum	.+750/-1000	770	827
Newsletter	Inv.Intel -Bull:tues	55.1	55.8
Surveys	Bear:-5yrs	19.4	19.7
	AAII  -Bull :wed.	33.1	28.3
	Bear	22.6	28.7
COT:SPX w/w	large/small (net)k	12k/10k	8k/15k
COT:gold  comm.hedg	long-short.000	(102k)	(110k)
CEOinsider	selling	15:1finance	18:1
off.&bd b/s.vs.	10% holder b/s	160:40	150:50
3-box rev	Bullish%-	71	72
US equity -ICI	Fund Flows	WeekDelay	(2B)
MMF flows	Change in $B	(3.1B)	16B
MargDebt- top (300M)	monthly		MAR
ETF:mthlyEqty/	Int'l/Bond-$B		MAR
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation		0.36%	0.39%

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance

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MISSING ACCOMPLISHED

BETTER LATE THAN NEVER

After a scintillating vacation into the hills (Lake Tahoe) cum snow, etc., and a Birthday celebration (76 today) I'm ready to catch up.

Not much happened last week in Sentiment although the market did its usual volatile swing. Following through with new highs the technicals are getting Bullish - I usually use 3 closes above previous highs/Resistance, so we're not ready to jump in with both feet.
Insider selling has abated, mutual fund flows show a return to MMFs (money markets), but commercial future traders in Gold still show large selling, although word is China is buying Gold.

Here are the numbers:

Date>		5/9/2014	5/2/2014
Indices:	DJIA	16583	16512
	NAZ	4138	4123
	SPX	1884	1881
WklyVolume (Bshs).	naz/ny	10.2/3.4	10.2/3.9
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish		3	2.62
Sentiment:	put/call-CBOE	68	61
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8		12.9	12.9
Advance/Dec-NYSE..		1527/1693	2168/1047
Weekly Net:		-166	1121
Cumulative:		159832	159998
Weekly	NYSE hi/low	322/137	319/99
New Hi's/Low's	Nasdaq h/l	103/303	136/221
McClellan	Oscillator	16	16
McClellanSum	.+750/-1000	827	842
Newsletter	Inv.Intel -Bull:tues	55.8	54.7
Surveys	Bear:-5yrs	19.7	20.6
	AAII  -Bull :wed.	28.3	29.8
	Bear	28.7	29.4
COT:SPX w/w	large/small (net)k	8k/15k	14k/14k
COT:gold  comm.hedg	long-short.000	(110k)	(98k)
CEOinsider	selling	18:1	40:1
off.&bd b/s.vs.	10% holder b/s	150:50	150:25
3-box rev	Bullish%-	72	69
US equity -ICI	Fund Flows	WeekDelay	(4B)
MMF flows	Change in $B	16B	(10B)
MargDebt- top (300M)	monthly	MAR	450B
ETF:mthlyEqty/	Int'l/Bond-$B	MAR	1049/401/259
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation		0.39%	0.43%

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance

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BETTER LATE THAN NEVER

Early (Vacation) Edition

Most Sentiment (and Breadth) Indicators remained placid last week as the more new highs were reached. VIX dropped into the 12 handle; in the Commitment of Traders, for the second week in a row the Large traders net volume and Small ones were exactly even - no signal there! Even the AAII Bull/Bears were tied at 29%.

Commercial gold sellers remain huge as do Insider sellers of stocks, both at t he sector level and board/officer individual numbers. Margin interest actually  dropped for the first time in months, but this is not a significant figure, due to low rates, which seem to be with us through the decade, per Levy Forecast in Barron's today.  

For more, see:  http://www.examiner.com/stock-market-in-san-francisco/brent-leonard

Here are the numbers:

Date>		5/2/2014	4/25/2014
Indices:	DJIA	16512	16361
	NAZ	4123	4075
	SPX	1881	1863
WklyVolume (Bshs).	naz/ny	10.2/3.9	9.3/3.3
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish		2.62	2.82
Sentiment:	put/call-CBOE	61	60
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8		12.9	14.1
Advance/Dec-NYSE..		2168/1047	1698/1517
Weekly Net:		1121	181
Cumulative:		159998	158877
Weekly	NYSE hi/low	319/99	313/49
New Hi's/Low's	Nasdaq h/l	136/221	165/100
McClellan	Oscillator	16	-2
McClellanSum	.+750/-1000	842	798
Newsletter	Inv.Intel -Bull:tues	54.7	51.6
Surveys	Bear:-5yrs	20.6	21.7
	AAII  -Bull :wed.	29.8	34.5
	Bear	29.4	26
COT:SPX w/w	large/small (net)k	14k/14k	11k/12k
COT:gold  comm.hedg	long-short.000	(98k)	(90k)
CEOinsider	selling	40:1	48:1
off.&bd b/s.vs.	10% holder b/s	150:25	200:35
3-box rev	Bullish%-	69	68
US equity -ICI	Fund Flows	WeekDelay	1.4B
MMF flows	Change in $B	(10B)	7.3B
MargDebt- top (300M)	monthly	450B	466B
ETF:mthlyEqty/	Int'l/Bond-$B	1049/401/259	1035/397/266
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation		0.43%	0.43%

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance

Subscribe in a reader

Early (Vacation) Edition