BEWARE THE IDES OF MARCH ! :

The Ides of March, quadruple-witching, and the anniversary of the '09 Bull market are upon us. To paraphrase the dual Chinese symbol - where there is strength there is also the probability of a temporarily overstretched market.

The bullishness of this steady rally on huge breadth - my cumulative advance/decline total is setting its second straight record- is being done on below average Volume; the New Hi/Lo numbers are obscene: 898 to7 on the NYSE; the A/D was EXACTLY 2:1. Possibly Charles Biderman can shed some light on market flows next week when he comes before the TSAA group (www.tsaasf.org).

CEO Insider selling jumped to the highest since Jan. 8 (following the Sept.25 superhigh); the McClellan Oscillator is still just above +50, (my benchmark), coming down from +75. The Bullish per cent - stocks on Buy signals, jumped to 80%, off its 88 high, Nova/Ursa ratio of Bulls to Bear is at a complacent high 66.

Money market outflows are huge, but they do not seem to be going into stocks (negative last week).

Here are the numbers:

MktSentiment	Last Week	Prev. Week	5 Yr HI	5 Yr LOW
DJIA:	10624	10566	14093	6626
Nasdaq:	2367	2326	2805	1114
S&P 500:	1150	1138	1561	683
CBOE Eq. put/call:	50	59	96-10/08	46-1/03
VIX:	17.6	17.4	90	8.8
McClellan Osc:	51	75	108	-100
McClellan Sum:	1109	804	1568	-1514
Newsletter Surveys
InvestorsIntel.Bull:	44.9	42.1	63	22.21
InvestorsIntel.Bear:	23.6	22.7	54.4	16
AAII Bull:	35.9	34.9	n/a	n/a
AAII Bear:	25.3	26.2	n/a	n/a
Nova/Ursa Mutual Funds:	0.66	0.6	2.2	0.56
US Equity-1 week lag	n/a	-1.5B
Money Market Flows	-39.7B	-1.6B
ETF equity:Monthly Totals	Jan.731B	Dec.777B
Baltic Dry Index:	3316	3242	11700	663
Bullish %:	80	76	88	2
Insider Corporate Sellers:	48:1	18:1	108:1	2.4:1

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance

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BEWARE THE IDES OF MARCH ! :

THE DEATH OF SENTIMENT:

In this week's Barron's the Other Voices column is a startling article about HFT, or High Frequency Trading, which now comprises 73% of the equities markets - how can one be a Contrarian to computers that scalp split-second anomalies by algorithms, presenting such a danger to investors, as in 2007, when they jointly pulled the liquidity, unlike Specialists that make "orderly markets"?

I used to liken investing to playing poker in the World Series of Poker - now I revise that to playing chess against a computer that has no emotion!

It is for this reason that, with my book coming out last Friday on Amazon.com, I had originally written it as an alternative to MMFs, CDs, T-Bills - I now think it is also the best way to invest in stocks. Titled Zero (In)Tolerance, it sells for just under $15, and describes the strategy, with actual results, of how to obtain high returns without the appreciation (HOPE) and much of the risk (FEAR), by buying dividend stocks and selling call options 10% under the buy price, ensuring a safety net against most corrections - as in May of '09 and this past January. Please see more at : brentleonard.com

Last week's sentiment and breadth indicators, for what they're worth, show huge MMF redemptions, and a rare (albeit slight) inflow into domestic equities. This month's TSAA meeting in San Francisco is with Charles Biderman of TrimTabs - the guru on fund flows; it should be quite revealing. TA scored a coup in this week's Barron's Market Watch, with both Martin Pring and Tom McClellan writing advisory letters.

Tom's Oscillator went to a cautionary +75 last week, and the Adv/Dec was over 2700-400, with New His/Los at 743 to 6 . Also showing a warning are the Bullish %, a record AAII neutral reading, and the Nova/Ursa fund ratio.

Here are the stats:

MktSentiment	Last Week	Prev. Week	5 Yr HI	5 Yr LOW
DJIA:	10566	10325	14093	6626
Nasdaq:	2326	2238	2805	1114
S&P 500:	1138	1104	1561	683
CBOE Eq. put/call:	59	70	96-10/08	46-1/03
VIX:	17.4	19.5	90	8.8
McClellan Osc:	75	316	108	-100
McClellan Sum:	804	506	1568	-1514
Newsletter Surveys
InvestorsIntel.Bull:	42.1	41.1	63	22.21
InvestorsIntel.Bear:	22.7	23.3	54.4	16
AAII Bull:	35.9	34.9	n/a	n/a
AAII Bear:	26.2	29.5	n/a	n/a
Nova/Ursa Mutual Funds:	0.6	0.55	2.2	0.56
US Equity-1 week lag	n/a	151M
Money Market Flows	-1.6B	-37.7B
ETF equity:Monthly Totals	Jan.731B	Dec.777B
Baltic Dry Index:	3242	2707	11700	663
Bullish %:	76	71	88	2
Insider Corporate Sellers:	18:1	32:1	108:1	2.4:1

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance

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THE DEATH OF SENTIMENT:

CAPITALISM OR CAPITOLISM?:

In my view, despite the nascent recovery underway, the gov't still wants to intervene in its awkward way ( my book proof has been 10 days so far in getting to me via the U.S.Postpartum Service). Hypothetically speaking, if the Fed had lowered rates via the Taylor Rule to 3% instead of zero, the $3+T in MMFs and at least an equal amount of T-Bills, CDs, etc. would have earned its holders $180B a year more (1/5th of the Stimulus without the debt) and consumers would be much more confident and happy - just my take.

Sentiment and the markets remain lamb-like so far in March, with the only extremes the CBOE put/call ratio at 70 puts over calls - the highest since Oct.1 of '09, the middle of the rally - other high numbers occurred in July - the start of the huge upsurge; and an 84 reading March 6 - A Day That Will Live.....

While breadth remains strong, survey letters and CEO selling are getting a bit toppy.

Here are the stats:

MktSentiment	Last Week	Prev. Week	5 Yr HI	5 Yr LOW
DJIA:	10325	10402	14093	6626
Nasdaq:	2238	2243	2805	1114
S&P 500:	1104	1109	1561	683
CBOE Eq. put/call:	70	64	96-10/08	46-1/03
VIX:	19.5	20.0	90	8.8
McClellan Osc:	31	56	108	-100
McClellan Sum:	506	345	1568	-1514
Newsletter Surveys
InvestorsIntel.Bull:	41.1	35.6	63	22.21
InvestorsIntel.Bear:	23.3	27.8	54.4	16
AAII Bull:	34.9	35.9	n/a	n/a
AAII Bear:	29.5	35.2	n/a	n/a
Nova/Ursa Mutual Funds:	0.55	0.50	2.2	0.56
US Equity-1 week lag	n/a	0
Money Market Flows	-1.6B	-37.7B
ETF equity:Monthly Totals	Jan.731B	Dec.777B
Baltic Dry Index:	2707	2704	11700	663
Bullish %:	71	69	88	2
Insider Corporate Sellers:	32:1	35:1	108:1	2.4:1

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance

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CAPITALISM OR CAPITOLISM?:

SWIMSUIT EDITION:

Get your attention? And now for this commercial!!: After many weeks' gestation period the arrival of the Zero (In)Tolerance book by yours truly is about to be born - after the proof is vetted today or tomorrow. It will be available for under $15 at Amazon.com/3431050 (please see www.brentleonard.com for any changes).

As mentioned previously. this book is about a low risk, high return alternative to punitive zero short term rates for prudent investors which look to be with us for an "extended" period.

Bearish sentiment has ameliorated since the recent rally after the 9% downdraft due to the banking crackdown. Outlier extremes include CEO Insider Selling and equity mutual fund outflows increasing. Also, breadth has rebounded nicely with adv/dec. on the NYSE at 5:1 and NY new highs/lows at 342 to 7 last week - and the McClellan Oscillator shot from 1 to over +50, nearing my caution area.

Here are the numbers:

MktSentiment	Last Week	Prev. Week	5 Yr HI	5 Yr LOW
DJIA:	10402	10099	14093	6626
Nasdaq:	2243	2183	2805	1114
S&P 500:	1109	1075	1561	683
CBOE Eq. put/call:	64	69	96-10/08	46-1/03
VIX:	20.0	22.7	90	8.8
McClellan Osc:	56	1	108	-100
McClellan Sum:	345	154	1568	-1514
Newsletter Surveys
InvestorsIntel.Bull:	35.6	34.1	63	22.21
InvestorsIntel.Bear:	27.8	38.9	54.4	16
AAII Bull:	35.9	36.8	n/a	n/a
AAII Bear:	35.2	41.9	n/a	n/a
Nova/Ursa Mutual Funds:	0.50	0.40	2.2	0.56
US Equity-1 week lag	n/a	-5.2B
Money Market Flows	-37.7B	-6.7B
ETF equity:Monthly Totals	Dec 777B	Nov 738B
Baltic Dry Index:	2704	2571	11700	663
Bullish %:	69	64	88	2
Insider Corporate Sellers:	35:1	11:1	108:1	2.4:1

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance

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SWIMSUIT EDITION:

CYCLE-LOGICAL:

The recently failed January Barometer - the month of January ending at a loss- is just one piece of a "nesting" of cycles that do not bode well for 2010: the zero year of the Decennial cycle is the worst of the 10, over 11 previous cycles; the Presidential, or 4-year Kitchin cycle has produced a large selloff since WWII; Martin Pring's 18-19 year cycle, which he calls the Lost Decade, as we saw similarly in Japan recently, also sees an alternating Bull to sideways/down cycle going back 200 years.

The good news is (for me) that my book on an alternative investment strategy to zero interest rates - Zero (In)Tolerance  should be ready for publication any day now. Any readers who are "FED" up with the punitive short term rates for retirees, prudent investors - pushing them into riskier investments (see declining Money Market Fund Flows below), might want to check this under-$20 book when released by Amazon's Createspace.com. More info can be had at www.brentleonard.com, also new.

Sentimentally, MMF flows were negative for the 5th week in a row, but for the first time, U.S. Equity flows turned negative, after the recent decline.

Despite the negative 40% of Inv.Intell. people surveyed calling for a correction - first time since 1983, both the I.I. and the AAII remain inverted intheir Bull/Bear ratios - a Bullish sign FOR the market. Also low is the Nova/Ursa fund ratio of longs to shorts.

Here are the numbers:

DJIA:	10099	10012	14093	6626
Nasdaq:	2183	2141	2805	1114
S&P 500:	1075	1066	1561	683
CBOE Eq. put/call:	69	69	96-10/08	46-1/03
VIX:	22.7	26.1	90	8.8
McClellan Osc:	1	-69	108	-100
McClellan Sum:	154	299	1568	-1514
Newsletter Surveys
InvestorsIntel.Bull:	34.1	38.9	63	22.21
InvestorsIntel.Bear:	38.9	40.0	54.4	16
AAII Bull:	36.8	29.2	n/a	n/a
AAII Bear:	41.9	43.1	n/a	n/a
Nova/Ursa Mutual Funds:	0.40	0.51	2.2	0.56
US Equity-1 week lag	n/a	-2.2B
Money Market Flows	-6.7B	-13.6B
ETF equity:Monthly Totals	Dec.777B	Nov.738BB
Baltic Dry Index:	2571	2685	11700	663
Bullish %:	64	64	88	2
Insider Corporate Sellers:	11:1	28:1	108:1	2.4:1

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance

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CYCLE-LOGICAL:

GUNG HAY FAT CHOY:

Year of the Tiger (except for Woods, of course). Along with the New part of New Year, I have a new website: http://www.brentleonard.com, a new email: brentleonard59@gmail.com to replace aol, and a new book, to be published any day now (more found at the website on this).

For the curious, the book - Zero (In)Tolerance- is about an alternative to negative interest rates. If the Fed had lowered to a paltry 3% instead of zero, investors would be happier, would have $150B / year more to "Consume" with, instead of borrowing, and gov't debt - Stimulus - would be much lower.

Only the banks and carry-traders benefited from zero, and if banks are too big to fail, where did the word Bank-rupt come from?

Back to Sentiment - the CBOE Equity put/call ratio rose to a recent record of 69, due to the recent correction; the McClellan Oscillator remains under minus 50, an oversold level. Both surveys became inverted last week, with Bears over Bulls - a good sign for the market.

Here are the numbers:

MktSentiment	Last Week	Prev. Week	5 Yr HI	5 Yr LOW
DJIA:	10012	10067	14093	6626
Nasdaq:	2141	2147	2805	1114
S&P 500:	1066	1073	1561	683
CBOE Eq. put/call:	69	68	96-10/08	46-1/03
VIX:	26.1	24.6	90	8.8
McClellan Osc:	-69	-93	108	-100
McClellan Sum:	299	546	1568	-1514
Newsletter Surveys
InvestorsIntel.Bull:	38.9	40.0	63	22.21
InvestorsIntel.Bear:	40.0	23.3	54.4	16
AAII Bull:	29.2	35.0	n/a	n/a
AAII Bear:	43.1	36.7	n/a	n/a
Nova/Ursa Mutual Funds:	0.51	0.68	2.2	0.56
US Equity-1 week lag		8.9B
Money Market Flows	-13.6B	-21.9B
ETF equity:Monthly Totals	Dec.777B	Nov.738BB
Baltic Dry Index:	2685	3223	11700	663
Bullish %:	64	73	88	2
Insider Corporate Sellers:	28:1	8:1	108:1	2.4:1

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance

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GUNG HAY FAT CHOY:

NERVOUS BREAKDOWN:

Many of the technicians and media talking heads are focused on the S&P500 Support level of 1085, which we broke through last week. More often than not, once a breakdown occurs through support, a retest to the "Ice" also happens - if it fails, the market recedes still more.

SPECIAL NOTE: Due to the advice of my IT I am changing my email from aol to: brentleonard59@gmail.com.
Please make this change - aol will forward for awhile yet.

Nothing spectacular from the Sentiment world. I did notice the last time the AAII Bears exceeded the Bulls was on Nov.6, the start of a nice rally. Volume picked up to new recent highs, but hardly a climactic capitulation. One other extreme was the McClellan Oscillator at -93, after not following my advice to turn the market up last week - this makes it more serious. Most other Indicators just regressed towards their means.

Here's the numbers:

MktSentiment	Last Week	Prev. Week	5 Yr HI	5 Yr LOW
DJIA:	10067	10172	14093	6626
Nasdaq:	2147	2205	2805	1114
S&P 500:	1073	1091	1561	683
CBOE Eq. put/call:	68	68	96-10/08	46-1/03
VIX:	24.6	27.3	90	8.8
McClellan Osc:	-93	-79	108	-100
McClellan Sum:	546	930	1568	-1514
Newsletter Surveys
InvestorsIntel.Bull:	40.0	52.2	63	22.21
InvestorsIntel.Bear:	23.3	18.9	54.4	16
AAII Bull:	35.0	40.0	n/a	n/a
AAII Bear:	36.7	34.7	n/a	n/a
Nova/Ursa Mutual Funds:	0.68	0.79	2.2	0.56
US Equity Flows	1 week lag	1.3B
Money Market Flows	-21.9B	-46.0B
ETF equity:Monthly Totals	Dec.777B	Nov.738BB
Baltic Dry Index:	3223	3170	11700	663
Bullish %:	73	77	88	2
Insider Corporate Sellers:	8:1	14:1	108:1	2.4:1

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance

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NERVOUS BREAKDOWN: