HOLD YOUR BREADTH!!

Breadth, in Stock market terms, usually means strength of markets, such as Advancing stocks over Decliners, New Highs over Lows, etc. Last week the change on the NYSE was....+7 stocks. Otherwise, New Highs were strong on both markets, the New Market High treadmill keeps ramping UP - The Trend is your Friend, until it Bends at the End.
The Dollar seeks new recent lows, as other countries support their currencies with sharper rate hikes than our Fed. The end-of-month Margin Interest number is out, near record highs, thanks to the low rates.
Here are the numbers:

Date		7/28/2017	7/21/2017
Indices:	DJIA	21830	21580
	NAZ	6374	6387
	SPX	2472	2472
WklyVolume (Bshs).	naz/ny….	.8/4.4	8.6/3.7
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish		2.23	2.32
Sentiment:	put/call-CBOE	72	58
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8		10.3	9.4
DeltaMSI-50%	MAC crossover	72.6	69.9
Advance/Dec-NYSE..		1533/1526	1881/1182
Weekly Net:		7	699
Cumulative:		179903	179896
Weekly	NYSE hi/low…	421/75	431/48
New Hi's/Low's	Nasdaq h/l	432/146	393/122
McClellan	Oscillator	-1	18
McClellanSum	.+750/-1000	750	727
Newsletter	Inv.Intel -Bull	60.2	57.8
Surveys-Tues	Bear:-5yrs	16.5	16.7
Wed.	AAII  -Bull	34.5	36
	Bear	24.3	26
US$-WSJ		93.3	94
3-box rev	Bullish%-	73	75
US equity -ICI	Fund Flows	weeklate	(4.5B)
MMF flows	Change in $B	23.3B	(9.9B)
MargDebt- top (300M)	monthly	539B	JUNE
10-yr Tsy yield	hi= stock buying	2.29	2.24
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation		1.35	1.34
TIP (ETF)	Inflation	113.7	113.6

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance

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HOLD YOUR BREADTH!!

UPDATE TIME

One of my readers last week requested that I update and explain the Sentiment Indicators I post weekly on this site. Over the past decade I have deleted and added a few. None of these Contrary Opinion numbers are actionable by themselves, but taken together can warn of speculative emotions.
The Indices are self-explanatory w/w ( week over week); Volume is Nasdaq vs. NYSE, a speculative signal; the CBOE equity Put to Call ratio and VIX are fear guides.
A new Delta MACD crossover is a bullish ( above 50) number , similar to Bullish %, or stocks on a BUY signal; Breadth is signalled by Advance/Decline, along with cumulative -now near record highs; also New Highs and Lows on the NYSE and Nasdaq.
The McClellan Oscillator ( and cum. Summation) is also a chart of advance/declines in a formula. The AAII and Investors' Intelligence Bull/Bear ratios are contrary - the I I become harder to locate recently ( I might switch back to Rydex.
Margin Debt remains HUGE, what with low rates; fund flows measure public $$, what with the ETF monster sucking up much in Index funds - some coming from Index Mutual Funds!!! Finally, the 2 and 10- year Treas. rates can be used to forecast a Recession - for over a Century we have never had a 10-year period where a Recession did not happen, and it always had an inverted Yield Curve (backwardation, not Contango) -the spread is lessening recently, as is the 3-month to 10-year TSY.
TIPs measure Inflation which at present is nonexistent.
Here are the recent numbers:

 

Date		7/21/2017	7/14/17
Indices:	DJIA	21580	21637
	NAZ	6387	6312
	SPX	2472	2459
WklyVolume (Bshs).	naz/ny….	8.6/3.7	8.6/3.8
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish		2.32	2.26
Sentiment:	put/call-CBOE	58	61
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8		9.4	9.5
DeltaMSI-50%	MAC crossover	69.9	58.9
Advance/Dec-NYSE..		1881/1182	2174/902
Weekly Net:		699	1272
Cumulative:		179896	179197
Weekly	NYSE hi/low…	431/48	323/83
New Hi's/Low's	Nasdaq h/l	393/122	282/153
McClellan	Oscillator	18	29
McClellanSum	.+750/-1000	727	594
Newsletter	Inv.Intel -Bull	na	50
Surveys-Tues	Bear:-5yrs	na	18.6
Wed.	AAII  -Bull	36	28.2
	Bear	26	29.6
US$-WSJ		94	95.1
3-box rev	Bullish%-	75	73
US equity -ICI	Fund Flows	weeklate	(2.1B)
MMF flows	Change in $B	(9.9B)	0
MargDebt- top (300M)	monthly		540B
10-yr Tsy yield	hi= stock buying	2.24	2.33
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation		1.34	1.36
TIP (ETF)	Inflation	113.6	113

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance

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UPDATE TIME

DOG DAYS OF SUMMER

According to Tom Bowley of Stockcharts, for the past 20 years (1998 on) the worst 3 months of the year have been - July, Aug., and Sept. Averaging around 50% of the time being up for the month. Although we keep hitting new highs, Volume and Momentum seem to have caught the Summer malaise.
Sentiment seems to also be on Hold, with Extremes being the margin interest (down slightly from mo/mo record highs), and the Institutions (Wire house newsletters) wildly Bullish (3 : 1) , while us amateurs - AAII are dead even (Bulls and Bears. The yield Curve - 10-yr. Treas. vs. 3-month - is the lowest since 2006-8 when we had the sliding down market into the Recession.
Here are the numbers:

Date		#######	7/7/2017
Indices:	DJIA	21637	21414
	NAZ	6312	6153
	SPX	2459	2425
WklyVolume (Bshs).	naz/ny….	8.6/3.8	6.6/3.0*
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish		2.26	2.2
Sentiment:	put/call-CBOE	61	63
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8		9.5	11.2
DeltaMSI-50%	MAC crossover	58.9	63.3
Advance/Dec-NYSE..		2174/902	1418/1630
Weekly Net:		1272	-212
Cumulative:		179197	177925
Weekly	NYSE hi/low…	323/83	229/96
New Hi's/Low's	Nasdaq h/l	282/153	164/107
McClellan	Oscillator	29	-11
McClellanSum	.+750/-1000	594	560
Newsletter	Inv.Intel -Bull	50	52.5
Surveys-Tues	Bear:-5yrs	18.6	18.8
Wed.	AAII  -Bull	28.2	29.6
	Bear	29.6	29.9
US$-WSJ		95.1	96
3-box rev	Bullish%-	73	73
US equity -ICI	Fund Flows	weeklate	(11.6B)
MMF flows	Change in $B	0	4.7B
MargDebt- top (300M)	monthly	540B	May
10-yr Tsy yield	hi= stock buying	2.33	2.39
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation		1.36	1.4
TIP (ETF)	Inflation	113	112.4

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance

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DOG DAYS OF SUMMER

SAME OLD

Not much change over the mid-week Holiday. Indices were positive, breadth negative, Volume almost halved. The TIP did break down below 113, and short term Treasury rates jumped a bit.
Bull/Bear ratios still very strong on the Bull side, as investors pour $$ into ETFs now, mostly SPY.
Great interview of Burton Malkiel on this by Consuela Mack - Wealthtrack (PBS or .com).
Question is - which ends first?: Fed propping up the markets or Index fund Inflows, propping up weak as well as strong stocks in each Index.
Here are last week's numbers:

Date		7/7/2017	6/30/2017
Indices:	DJIA	21414	21349
	NAZ	6153	6140
	SPX	2425	2423
WklyVolume (Bshs).	naz/ny….	6.6/3.0*	10.7/4.4
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish		2.2	2.43
Sentiment:	put/call-CBOE	63	66
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8		11.2	11.2
DeltaMSI-50%	MAC crossover	63.3	61.6
Advance/Dec-NYSE..		1418/1630	1688/1404
Weekly Net:		-212	284
Cumulative:		177925	178137
Weekly	NYSE hi/low…	229/96	297/57
New Hi's/Low's	Nasdaq h/l	164/107	314/104
McClellan	Oscillator	-11	0
McClellanSum	.+750/-1000	560	584
Newsletter	Inv.Intel -Bull	52.5	54.9
Surveys-Tues	Bear:-5yrs	18.8	18.6
Wed.	AAII  -Bull	29.6	29.7
	Bear	29.9	26.9
US$-WSJ		96	95.7
3-box rev	Bullish%-	73	72
US equity -ICI	Fund Flows	weeklate	(4.4B)
MMF flows	Change in $B	4.7B	4.2B
MargDebt- top (300M)	monthly		540
10-yr Tsy yield	hi= stock buying	2.39	2.5
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation		1.4	1.38
TIP (ETF)	Inflation	112.4	113.4

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance

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SAME OLD

RECESS TIME

Stocks backed off a bit and Breadth recovered slightly; speculative Volume ratio improved (Nas over NY).  Margin Interest declined for the first time in ages. Even MMF flows improved as equities funds flowed out the prior week. Here are the results - let the fireworks begin:

Date		6/30/2017	6/23/2017
Indices:	DJIA	21349	21394
	NAZ	6140	6265
	SPX	2423	2438
WklyVolume (Bshs).	naz/ny….	10.7/4.4	12.5/5.4
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish		2.43	2.31
Sentiment:	put/call-CBOE	66	59
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8		11.2	10
DeltaMSI-50%	MAC crossover	61.6	62.2
Advance/Dec-NYSE..		1688/1404	1533/1556
Weekly Net:		284	-23
Cumulative:		178137	177853
Weekly	NYSE hi/low…	297/57	368/187
New Hi's/Low's	Nasdaq h/l	314/104	319/150
McClellan	Oscillator	0	-2
McClellanSum	.+750/-1000	584	583
Newsletter	Inv.Intel -Bull	na	51.5
Surveys-Tues	Bear:-5yrs	na	19.4
Wed.	AAII  -Bull	na	32.7
	Bear	na	28.9
US$-WSJ		95.7	97.3
3-box rev	Bullish%-	72	72
US equity -ICI	Fund Flows	weeklate	(7.9B)
MMF flows	Change in $B	4.2B	(16.2B)
MargDebt- top (300M)	monthly	540	549B
10-yr Tsy yield	hi= stock buying	2.5	2.1
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation		1.38	1.35
TIP (ETF)	Inflation	113.4	114.3

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance

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RECESS TIME