So far... the new environment has been beneficial for the stock market--until it's Not. Stocks are pushing up against high valuations, number of years (both bond and stocks), debt and market % of GDP, etc. Even margin debt at low rates is dangerous.
But Sentiment and breadth show no sign of weakness yet. $$ flows out of MMFs into stock MUFs and ETFs; Inflation contained and Volatility low. Here are the numbers:
Date | 2/10/2017 | 2/3/2017 | |
Indices: | DJIA | 20269 | 20071 |
NAZ | 5734 | 5666 | |
SPX | 2316 | 2297 | |
WklyVolume (Bshs). | naz/ny…. | 9.3/4.1 | 9.8/4.6 |
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish | 2.27 | 2.13 | |
Sentiment: | put/call-CBOE | 67 | 71 |
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8 | 10.9 | 11 | |
DeltaMSI-50% | MAC crossover | 68.5 | 71.3 |
Advance/Dec-NYSE.. | 1974/1115 | 1914/1184 | |
Weekly Net: | 859 | 730 | |
Cumulative: | 174671 | 173812 | |
Weekly | NYSE hi/low… | 379/44 | 331/57 |
New Hi's/Low's | Nasdaq h/l | 423/110 | 350/125 |
McClellan | Oscillator | 27 | 18 |
McClellanSum | .+750/-1000 | 686 | 654 |
Newsletter | Inv.Intel -Bull | 62.7 | 61.8 |
Surveys-Tues | Bear:-5yrs | 16.7 | 17.6 |
Wed. | AAII -Bull | 35.8 | 32.8 |
Bear | 27.7 | 34.2 | |
US$-WSJ | 100.7 | 99.7 | |
3-box rev | Bullish%- | 71 | 71 |
US equity -ICI | Fund Flows | WeekLate | 11.8B |
MMF flows | Change in $B | (3.2B) | (5.7B) |
MargDebt- top (300M) | monthly | 490B | |
10-yr Tsy yield | hi= stock buying | 2.4 | 2.5 |
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation | 1.2 | 1.2 | |
TIP (ETF) | Inflation | 114.2 | 113.9 |
With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance
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