TAKE A HIKE

Since everything Trump is beeyoutiful these days, a possible rate hike by the Fed maybe in the cards for mid-March - a good time to jump into Treasuries at auction (par) if you have some spare cash.
Stocks, however, could be heading for at least a Correction, with consecutive record highs rivaling 1987 !!!!!
Sentiment and Breadth seem equal to the rising market in intensity; Equity flows - funds and ETFs (those traded on exchanges) have been positive since the election (after a brief respite) . They were mostly flowing Out all of 2016 until then.  Margin Debt is spectacularly high -  a danger if stocks start to slide and people/robos have to sell to meet margin calls -Hello!
All else seems stable - Bulls, advance/declines, VIX, but Inflation -as measured by TIPS hit a new high last week. See below:

Date		2/24/2017	2/17/2017
Indices:	DJIA	20821	20624
	NAZ	5845	5838
	SPX	2367	2351
WklyVolume (Bshs).	naz/ny….	7.3/3.6	9.6/4.3
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish		2.03	2.23
Sentiment:	put/call-CBOE	64	57
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8		11.5	11.5
DeltaMSI-50%	MAC crossover	71.9	72.6
Advance/Dec-NYSE..		1763/1334	1606/1501
Weekly Net:		429	105
Cumulative:		175207	174776
Weekly	NYSE hi/low…	449/41	504/33
New Hi's/Low's	Nasdaq h/l	496/95	555/85
McClellan	Oscillator	2	2
McClellanSum	.+750/-1000	812	778
Newsletter	Inv.Intel -Bull	61.2	61.8
Surveys-Tues	Bear:-5yrs	17.5	17.6
Wed.	AAII  -Bull	38.5	33.1
	Bear	32.1	32.4
US$-WSJ		101.1	100.9
3-box rev	Bullish%-	77nh	76
US equity -ICI	Fund Flows	WeekLate	8.1B
MMF flows	Change in $B	5.1B	(2.0B)
MargDebt- top (300M)	monthly	490B
10-yr Tsy yield	hi= stock buying	2.3	2.4
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation		1.15	1.2
TIP (ETF)	Inflation	114.9	114.2

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance

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TAKE A HIKE

JANET YODA

What comes first - the departure of the current Fed Head or the inevitable Recession, which could be a doozy? For over  a Century, we've had an "R" around the zero year of the decennial cycle, plus or minus a year or so - last one was 2008, after which the Fed dropped interest rates to...Zero and propped up the markets - stock and real estate.
Worries coming up this year (contrary to Janet's hemming and hawing, which talking heads posit that move computer-driven markets) are: NAFTA LA VISTA (coined by Dimitra D. in Barron's this week) , the Border Tax, CalExit, the North Korea "nucular" threat.
Stocks crawled up higher to new records and the VIX (Volatility) stayed low - which unlike high IV could stay that way for a long while ( more from Bill Luby's option column in Barron's). Threats to the market are: Extreme Margin Interest, length of the Bull market, $20T national debt, and some tech valuations.
What could possibly go Rong?
Here are the numbers:

Date		2/17/2017	2/10/2017
Indices:	DJIA	20624	20269
	NAZ	5838	5734
	SPX	2351	2316
WklyVolume (Bshs).	naz/ny….	9.6/4.3	9.3/4.1
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish		2.23	2.27
Sentiment:	put/call-CBOE	57	67
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8		11.5	10.9
DeltaMSI-50%	MAC crossover	72.6	68.5
Advance/Dec-NYSE..		1606/1501	1974/1115
Weekly Net:		105	859
Cumulative:		174776	174671
Weekly	NYSE hi/low…	504/33	379/44
New Hi's/Low's	Nasdaq h/l	555/85	423/110
McClellan	Oscillator	2	27
McClellanSum	.+750/-1000	778	686
Newsletter	Inv.Intel -Bull	61.8	62.7
Surveys-Tues	Bear:-5yrs	17.6	16.7
Wed.	AAII  -Bull	33.1	35.8
	Bear	32.4	27.7
US$-WSJ		100.9	100.7
3-box rev	Bullish%-	76	71
US equity -ICI	Fund Flows	WeekLate	.8B
MMF flows	Change in $B	(2.0B)	(3.2B)
MargDebt- top (300M)	monthly
10-yr Tsy yield	hi= stock buying	2.4	2.4
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation		1.2	1.2
TIP (ETF)	Inflation	114.2	114.2

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance

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JANET YODA

DIALECTICS

One of the most profound and useful concepts I've found, which apply to so many things - such as today's political, racial, Congressional, and nationalistic divides- is Dialectic: put forth recently by Hegel, and Chalybaus, -that  Thesis, when countered by Antithesis, should result in a better Synthesis. Taking the better parts of both sides and merging them into a better way!

So far... the new environment has been beneficial for the stock market--until it's Not. Stocks are pushing up against high valuations, number of years (both bond and stocks), debt and market % of GDP, etc.  Even margin debt at low rates is dangerous.

But Sentiment and breadth show no sign of weakness yet. $$ flows out of MMFs into stock MUFs and ETFs; Inflation contained and Volatility low. Here are the numbers:

Date		2/10/2017	2/3/2017
Indices:	DJIA	20269	20071
	NAZ	5734	5666
	SPX	2316	2297
WklyVolume (Bshs).	naz/ny….	9.3/4.1	9.8/4.6
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish		2.27	2.13
Sentiment:	put/call-CBOE	67	71
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8		10.9	11
DeltaMSI-50%	MAC crossover	68.5	71.3
Advance/Dec-NYSE..		1974/1115	1914/1184
Weekly Net:		859	730
Cumulative:		174671	173812
Weekly	NYSE hi/low…	379/44	331/57
New Hi's/Low's	Nasdaq h/l	423/110	350/125
McClellan	Oscillator	27	18
McClellanSum	.+750/-1000	686	654
Newsletter	Inv.Intel -Bull	62.7	61.8
Surveys-Tues	Bear:-5yrs	16.7	17.6
Wed.	AAII  -Bull	35.8	32.8
	Bear	27.7	34.2
US$-WSJ		100.7	99.7
3-box rev	Bullish%-	71	71
US equity -ICI	Fund Flows	WeekLate	11.8B
MMF flows	Change in $B	(3.2B)	(5.7B)
MargDebt- top (300M)	monthly		490B
10-yr Tsy yield	hi= stock buying	2.4	2.5
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation		1.2	1.2
TIP (ETF)	Inflation	114.2	113.9

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance

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DIALECTICS

GOOD BREADTH

Thanks to Friday's rebound, the overall market came out rather positive, with my cumulative Advance/Decline hitting all time highs, and New Hi's better than Lows. Margin debt backed off a bit, which means short-covering (see below):

Date		2/3/2017	1/27/2017
Indices:	DJIA	20071	20093
	NAZ	5666	5660
	SPX	2297	2294
WklyVolume (Bshs).	naz/ny….	9.8/4.6	8.8/4.1
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish		2.13	2.15
Sentiment:	put/call-CBOE	71	67
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8		11	10.6
DeltaMSI-50%	MAC crossover	71.3	72.9
Advance/Dec-NYSE..		1914/1184	2115/994
Weekly Net:		730	1121
Cumulative:		173812	173082
Weekly	NYSE hi/low…	331/57	498/41
New Hi's/Low's	Nasdaq h/l	350/125	464/108
McClellan	Oscillator	18	3
McClellanSum	.+750/-1000	654	682
Newsletter	Inv.Intel -Bull	61.8	58.2
Surveys-Tues	Bear:-5yrs	17.6	17.5
Wed.	AAII  -Bull	32.8	31.6
	Bear	34.2	33.5
US$-WSJ		99.7	100.5
3-box rev	Bullish%-	71	73
US equity -ICI	Fund Flows	WeekLate	(8.2B)
MMF flows	Change in $B	(5.7B)	19.7B
MargDebt- top (300M)	monthly	490B	DEC:
10-yr Tsy yield	hi= stock buying	2.5	2.5
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation		1.2	1.2
TIP (ETF)	Inflation	113.9	114

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance

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GOOD BREADTH