BREAKOUT OR FAKEOUT

After a much-needed stock market correction in August and September, October is looking pretty good; the sharp upthrusts Thurs. and Fri. broke into current Resistance, despite overbought Breadth (Advances over Declines). Rather startling: the S&P 500 was up 1% Friday, and HALF the rise was just 3 stocks (thanks to Capitalization-weighting, not Price-weighting). Google (Alphabet), Microsoft and Amazon. Other reasons are probably short-covering of a high number of Bears, and the failure of the Gov't to issue some short term Treas. due to the debt ceiling dilemma - cash lying around.

After spending (wasting?) $$ on SPY Puts to hedge for the fearful October, I now use the TVIX which "should" rise if markets tank, although I expect the year end to be positive. Cannot be too careful with retirement $$.

Despite last week's Volatility, most Sentiment Indicators are right in the medium area - see below

Date>		10/23/2015	10/16/2015
Indices:	DJIA	17646	17215
	NAZ	5031	4886
	SPX	2075	2033
WklyVolume (Bshs).	naz/ny….	9.4/4.5	8.5/4.4
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish		2.09	1.93
Sentiment:	put/call-CBOE	71	73
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8		14.4	15
Advance/Dec-NYSE..		1933/1299	1753/1477
Weekly Net:		634	276
Cumulative:		162045	161411
Weekly	NYSE hi/low…	228/136	131/74
New Hi's/Low's	Nasdaq h/l	225/211	153/141
McClellan	Oscillator	39	55
McClellanSum	.+750/-1000	373	187
Newsletter	Inv.Intel -Bull	37.5	36.5
Surveys-Tues	Bear:-5yrs	31.3	31.2
Wed.	AAII  -Bull	34.8	34.1
	Bear	24	27.1
US$-WSJ		88	87
CEOinsider	selling	.26:1	.106:1
3-box rev	Bullish%-	63	53
US equity -ICI	Fund Flows	week delay	(1.4B)
MMF flows	Change in $B	1B	11.0B
MargDebt- top (300M)	monthly	454B	SEPT
ETF:mthlyEqty/	Int'l/Bond-$B	1202/465/324	AUG.
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation		0.65%	0.61%
TIP (ETF)	Inflation	111.3	111.3

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance

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BREAKOUT OR FAKEOUT

ONWARD AND UPWARD

Despite October's economic and geopolitical worries, neither has pushed the stock market down, as it slowly rises through technical past Resistance levels - we are now getting into "possible" 2016 potential stock sellers. It appears that the feared October massacre might have happened in Sept. this year (TBD).

One of the least reliable sentiment signals (which should be more effective) - legal Insider Selling by CEOs, etc. was huge last week. But Buying, in May of 2009 - the start of this Bull cycle- is still the record: totally wrong.
As one can see below, most of the Sentiment Indicators have righted themselves to the Bullish (for the market) side - only the fullness of time will tell!!

Date>		10/16/2015	10/9/2015
Indices:	DJIA	17215	17084
	NAZ	4886	4830
	SPX	2033	2014
WklyVolume (Bshs).	naz/ny….	8.5/4.4	9.9/5.1
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish		1.93	1.94
Sentiment:	put/call-CBOE	73	69
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8		15	17.1
Advance/Dec-NYSE..		1753/1477	2871/371
Weekly Net:		276	2500
Cumulative:		161411	161135
Weekly	NYSE hi/low…	131/74	115/53
New Hi's/Low's	Nasdaq h/l	153/141	143/130
McClellan	Oscillator	55	88
McClellanSum	.+750/-1000	187	-75
Newsletter	Inv.Intel -Bull	36.5	30.2
Surveys-Tues	Bear:-5yrs	31.2	34.4
Wed.	AAII  -Bull	34.1	37.5
	Bear	27.1	28.2
US$-WSJ		94.7	na
CEOinsider	selling	.106:1	.76:1
3-box rev	Bullish%-	53	50
US equity -ICI	Fund Flows	week delay	(1.3B)
MMF flows	Change in $B	11.0B	3.7B
MargDebt- top (300M)	monthly		473B
ETF:mthlyEqty/	Int'l/Bond-$B		1275/509/321
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation		0.61%	0.64%
TIP (ETF)	Inflation	111.3	111.3

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance

Subscribe in a reader

ONWARD AND UPWARD

PARTY ON

Maybe our Con-gress (as opposed to Pro-gress) should stop using the term "Party" for their groups- to be taken more seriously! Kicking the bottles down the road - gov't shutdown delayed till Nov.5, Dec.11 gov't spending deadline, Repubs looking for a leader, Fed hiking rates...

  Nice snapback rally (shortcovering?) so far - even today, following the strong breadth of last week- 9:1 advances over declines, although the high McClellan Oscillator was overbought. Insider selling was large after a quiet Fall.
Here are the numbers:

Date>		10/9/2015	10/2/2015
Indices:	DJIA	17084	16472
	NAZ	4830	4707
	SPX	2014	1951
WklyVolume (Bshs).	naz/ny….	9.9/5.1	11.3/5.4
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish		1.94	2.1
Sentiment:	put/call-CBOE	69	79
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8		17.1	20.9
Advance/Dec-NYSE..		2871/371	1444/1805
Weekly Net:		2500	361
Cumulative:		161135	158635
Weekly	NYSE hi/low…	115/53	26/795
New Hi's/Low's	Nasdaq h/l	143/130	61/618
McClellan	Oscillator	88	21
McClellanSum	.+750/-1000	-75	-452
Newsletter	Inv.Intel -Bull	30.2	24.7
Surveys-Tues	Bear:-5yrs	34.4	35.1
Wed.	AAII  -Bull	37.5	28.1
	Bear	28.2	39.9
US$-WSJ		87.3	88.5
CEOinsider	selling	.76:1	.30:1
3-box rev	Bullish%-	50	31
US equity -ICI	Fund Flows	week delay	(7.2B)
MMF flows	Change in $B	3.7B	8.4B
MargDebt- top (300M)	monthly	473B	AUG:
ETF:mthlyEqty/	Int'l/Bond-$B	1275/509/321	JUL:
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation		0.64%	0.59%
TIP (ETF)	Inflation	111.3	111.7

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance

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PARTY ON

FOOL ME ONCE

Shame on you; fool me twice - shame on ME!
This Volatile stock market is getting harder and harder to figure - especially with Fundamental data coming out every day. Veteran analysts such as Laszlo Birinyi and now Jeremy Seigel say the market is going to scream upwards for the next couple of years - but it is hard to see that right now with both Technicals and Fundamentals looking so weak. Take your pick.

Mid- October is what we call a CMJ - Critical Market Juncture most years. Just look back at 2008, 2001, 2002, 1987, 1929, et.al. They always resulted in nice V-Spikes, but one never knows when the downslope ends.

Last week ended the 3rd Quarter, the worst in 4 years, with a huge rally - but it could be deceptive. Market breadth was still negative, with Advances below Declines, despite Friday's huge rally - the New Lows to Highs were amazing - on the NYSE they were 30 to 1 !!!, 10:1 on the Nasdaq.

On the positive side, short term, the newsletter surveys (Bulls and Bears) were inverted in favor of BEARS, which is a contrary sign. Weekly Volume was also large - an important Technical confirmation signal which main media seems to ignore (CNBC, Bloomie).

HERE ARE THE WEEKLY NUMBERS:

Date>		10/2/2015	9/25/2015
Indices:	DJIA	16472	16314
	NAZ	4707	4686
	SPX	1951	1931
WklyVolume (Bshs).	naz/ny….	11.3/5.4	9.6/4.6
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish		2.1	2.1
Sentiment:	put/call-CBOE	79	72
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8		20.9	23.6
Advance/Dec-NYSE..		1444/1805	1057/2179
Weekly Net:		361	-1122
Cumulative:		158635	158274
Weekly	NYSE hi/low…	26/795	53/453
New Hi's/Low's	Nasdaq h/l	61/618	94/347
McClellan	Oscillator	21	-10
McClellanSum	.+750/-1000	-452	-365
Newsletter	Inv.Intel -Bull	24.7	26
Surveys-Tues	Bear:-5yrs	35.1	30.2
Wed.	AAII  -Bull	28.1	32.1
	Bear	39.9	28.7
US$-WSJ		88.5	88.9
CEOinsider	selling	.30:1	.50:1
3-box rev	Bullish%-	31	36
US equity -ICI	Fund Flows	week delay	0
MMF flows	Change in $B	8.4B	14B
MargDebt- top (300M)	monthly	AUG:	473B
ETF:mthlyEqty/	Int'l/Bond-$B	JUL:	1275/509/321
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation		0.59%	0.70%
TIP (ETF)	Inflation	111.7	110.1

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance

Subscribe in a reader

FOOL ME ONCE