New Highs

The DJIA and SPX made new highs last week after the Presidential Holiday, with the Nasdaq a few points below its 15-year bubble high of 5049.

The upmove during the week regressed most Indicators to their mean, even Gold commercials shorted less, although still high, as gold makes a 7-week low.

My favorite Bull/Bear survey - the AAII individual investor poll- skewed to the Bull (complacent) side, as the two week totals showed 35% to 40 to 47 last week; Bears slid from 32% to 20, down to 17.
Here are the numbers:

Date>		2/20/2015	2/13/2015
Indices:	DJIA	18140	18019
	NAZ	4955	4893
	SPX	2110	2097
WklyVolume (Bshs).	naz/ny….	6.7/3.0	9.1/3.9
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish		2.23	2.33
Sentiment:	put/call-CBOE	56	62
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8		14.3	14.7
Advance/Dec-NYSE..		1679/1543	2119/1143
Weekly Net:		136	976
Cumulative:		166557	166421
Weekly	NYSE hi/low…	332/37	339/63
New Hi's/Low's	Nasdaq h/l	263/84	259/125
McClellan	Oscillator	24	32
McClellanSum	.+750/-1000	556	485
Newsletter	Inv.Intel -Bull:tues	56.6	52.5
Surveys	Bear:-5yrs	34.1	15.2
	AAII  -Bull :wed.	47	40
	Bear	17.9	20.3
COT:SPX w/w	large/small (net)k	4k/(9k)	3k/(7k)
COT:gold  comm.hedg	long-short.000	(144k)	(171k)
CEOinsider	selling	.42:1	.38:1-1.1M
off.&bd b/s.vs.	10% holder b/s	.160:15	.160:50
3-box rev	Bullish%-	74	71
US equity -ICI	Fund Flows	WeekDelay	0
MMF flows	Change in $B	(9.0B)	4.3B
MargDebt- top (300M)	monthly	na	na
ETF:mthlyEqty/	Int'l/Bond-$B		1260/415/296
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation		0.64%	0.65%
TIP (ETF)	Inflation	112.48	112.66

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance

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New Highs

President's Day

As shown by the numbers below, the SPX (S&P 500)  hit an all-time high, with the DJIA 30 close behind. The Nasdaq hit a 14-year high, just off the 2000 bubble. Breadth, as measured by advance/declines, was also strong, with my cumulative A/D at a new high as well.
Lots of Insider Selling, a little early for tax time, but Insider Buying also picked up, so the ratio was 38:1 sellers - not a record but pretty strong. $1.1B in selling, with half of it in Consumer Sectors.
MMFs had a net Gain for the first time since Jan. 2. Gold commercials still are selling bigtime, but not at the record level of last week.
The Bull looks strong, as new highs mean no previous sellers to dump getting even. The Wyckoff model, a West Coast favorite, shows a possible UTAD ( upthrust after distribution) which could be a fakeout before going lower. But IMO, so much global unrest, 50% of securities inflows in the U.S. is coming from outside our borders, for safety.

Here are the numbers:

Date>		2/13/2015	2/6/2015
Indices:	DJIA	18019	17824
	NAZ	4893	4744
	SPX	2097	2055
WklyVolume (Bshs).	naz/ny….	9.1/3.9	10.3/4.5
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish		2.33	2.29
Sentiment:	put/call-CBOE	62	64
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8		14.7	17.3
Advance/Dec-NYSE..		2119/1143	2262/1002
Weekly Net:		976	1260
Cumulative:		166421	165445
Weekly	NYSE hi/low…	339/63	486/111
New Hi's/Low's	Nasdaq h/l	259/125	207/185
McClellan	Oscillator	32	16
McClellanSum	.+750/-1000	485	414
Newsletter	Inv.Intel -Bull:tues	52.5	49
Surveys	Bear:-5yrs	15.2	16.3
	AAII  -Bull :wed.	40	35.5
	Bear	20.3	32.4
COT:SPX w/w	large/small (net)k	3k/(7k)	1k/0k
COT:gold  comm.hedg	long-short.000	(171k)	(203k)
CEOinsider	selling	.38:1-1.1M	.50:1
off.&bd b/s.vs.	10% holder b/s	.160:50	.160:35
3-box rev	Bullish%-	71	68
US equity -ICI	Fund Flows	WeekDelay	3.5B
MMF flows	Change in $B	4.3B	(16.4B)
MargDebt- top (300M)	monthly		n/a
ETF:mthlyEqty/	Int'l/Bond-$B
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation		0.65%	0.65%
TIP (ETF)	Inflation	112.66	113.96

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance

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President's Day

Dead of Winter -II

Date>		2/6/2015	1/30/2015
Indices:	DJIA	17824	17164
	NAZ	4744	4635
	SPX	2055	1995
WklyVolume (Bshs).	naz/ny….	10.3/4.5	9.9/4.4
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish		2.29	2.25
Sentiment:	put/call-CBOE	64	71
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8		17.3	21
Advance/Dec-NYSE..		2262/1002	1216/2032
Weekly Net:		1260	-816
Cumulative:		165445	164185
Weekly	NYSE hi/low…	486/111	616/245
New Hi's/Low's	Nasdaq h/l	207/185	216/257
McClellan	Oscillator	16	-11
McClellanSum	.+750/-1000	414	297
Newsletter	Inv.Intel -Bull:tues	49	53.1
Surveys	Bear:-5yrs	16.3	16.3
	AAII  -Bull :wed.	35.5	44.2
	Bear	32.4	22.4
COT:SPX w/w	large/small (net)k	1k/0k	3k/13k
COT:gold  comm.hedg	long-short.000	(203k)	(206k)
CEOinsider	selling	.50:1
off.&bd b/s.vs.	10% holder b/s	.160:35	.160:35
3-box rev	Bullish%-	68	62
US equity -ICI	Fund Flows	WeekDelay	3.5B
MMF flows	Change in $B	(16.4B)	(2.5B)
MargDebt- top (300M)	monthly	n/a	n/a
ETF:mthlyEqty/	Int'l/Bond-$B		1260/415/296
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation		0.65%	0.45%
TIP (ETF)	Inflation	113.96	115.55

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance

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Dead of Winter -II

Dead of Winter

Despite increased Volatility in stocks due to the cessation of Fed's QE steadying hand, almost all Sentiment Indicators are in the neutral, non-extreme range these days. These include (see matrix below) NYSE to NASDAQ Volumes (speculation if OTC is extreme); CBOE put to call option ratio;

VIX -back down to teens; McClellan Oscillator and Summation Indices hanging around zero (a breadth, or Advance/Decline momentum signal); newsletter surveys - both wire newsletters and AAII (individual investor) Bulls vs. Bears; and various Insider selling stuck in a rut. This usually jumps around Income Tax time.

The notable exceptions, again, last week were Gold short sellers in the Commercial Traders' area, which was shown by last week's big drop from $1300 to just above $1200/oz. A Barron's oil analyst notes that the Longs in oil have not yet capitulated into a Selling Climax, and expects oil to reach $20 a barrel - now that's an extreme! 

Finally, for what it's worth the 2-year Treasury yield jumped up to 0.65%, from 0.45% last week - also extreme. Due to the length of this blog - see next blog for numbers- here are the numbers:

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance

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Dead of Winter

January DEFECT

For the fourth time in five weeks, the markets ended negative, making obvious the January Barometer prognostication for a great year dubious. Any technician knows that the only guarantee of a projection, based on a model of Januarys from 1928, is that the market will probably not exactly replicate the model - however, the market does rhyme!

The negative January model shows a sharp decline in January !, followed by a shallower on in Feb; an up  March, then down into June. Whereupon the market rises until the year end, with about a 2% gain. This is based on 33 DOWN Januarys, versus 54 UPs, and 17 MORE than 5% UPs! Still, it beats Zero % MMFs and CDs!

New Highs on the NYSE broke up through the 600 level, whereas the NASDAQ stayed negative. Once again, commercial shorts on GOLD set a new Record High! Over 200. This does not bode well for future gold, as the Dollar gets stronger.

Insider Selling by Sector continues to fall, in ratio to Buying - at 14:1, with Media by far the largest Buyers! Spectrum?? Selling was pretty much across the board. A comment posted to my blog asked when the 235:1 ratio occurred, so I checked. It was May 2011; I also saw that previous highs were all in April - 2009,  2010, and April 2011 - indicating perhaps selling to give to the IRS.

Technically, things look pretty bleak, short term - two of my fellow Adjunct Prof.s from GGU noted the possible (?) H&S Top formation - yet to be confirmed by a Neckline breech or Volume; I see a possible Symmetrical triangle (positive ?) short term, if the DJIA and SPX bounce what appears to be Support levels at 17,100 and 1990.

EFTs, or Exchange Traded Funds, which have been expanding for awhile ( especially Index ETFs for 9 years now), finally reported this week (see below), as Int'l and Bond flows stayed the same.

Today's market (Feb.2) is showing at least a temporary ceasing of stocks at their Support levels, as well as Oil, Dollar, and Gold trends. Time will tell. I like three days' closes for confirmation.

Here are the numbers:

Date>		1/30/2015	1/23/2015
Indices:	DJIA	17164	17672
	NAZ	4635	4757
	SPX	1995	2051
WklyVolume (Bshs).	naz/ny….	9.9/4.4	7.3/3.3
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish		2.25	2.21
Sentiment:	put/call-CBOE	71	62
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8		21	16.7
Advance/Dec-NYSE..		1216/2032	2083/1152
Weekly Net:		-816	931
Cumulative:		164185	165001
Weekly	NYSE hi/low…	616/245	516/165
New Hi's/Low's	Nasdaq h/l	216/257	174/243
McClellan	Oscillator	-11	16
McClellanSum	.+750/-1000	297	257
Newsletter	Inv.Intel -Bull:tues	53.1	49
Surveys	Bear:-5yrs	16.3	17.4
	AAII  -Bull :wed.	44.2	37.1
	Bear	22.4	30.8
COT:SPX w/w	large/small (net)k	3k/13k	4k/12k
COT:gold  comm.hedg	long-short.000	(206k)	(178k)
CEOinsider	selling		.18:1
off.&bd b/s.vs.	10% holder b/s	.160:35	.160:30
3-box rev	Bullish%-	62	64
US equity -ICI	Fund Flows	WeekDelay	.9B
MMF flows	Change in $B	(2.5B)	(1.0B)
MargDebt- top (300M)	monthly	n/a
ETF:mthlyEqty/	Int'l/Bond-$B	1260/415/296
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation		0.45%	0.49%
TIP (ETF)	Inflation		114.17

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance

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January DEFECT