UPSIDE DOWN

Monday, September 8, 2014

UPSIDE DOWN

Thanks to the Fed Head's foot on the gas pedal, market cycles seem to be reversing, or at least unpredictably inconsistent. August, a usually bad month, from 2011 to 2013 was down, up, then down; Sept., the worst of the 12 months, was down in '11 but up the last two years. October - the month to fear, going back to 1929, was up big in 2011, down some in '12, then straight up hugely in 2013! Finally, November, was down two years until 2013. So far this year - August was up huge 90 points, of nearly 5%.

The Investors' Intelligence Bearish %, at 13.3% last week, is the lowest since 1987. Commercial gold sellers remain high, thanks to Super Mario's QE raising the $$ by lowering the Euro strength.

Here are the numbers from the Holiday week:

Date>		9/5/2014	8/29/2014
Indices:	DJIA	17137	17098
	NAZ	4582	4580
	SPX	2007	2003
WklyVolume (Bshs).	naz/ny	7.0/2.4	6.8/2.6
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish		2.9	2.6
Sentiment:	put/call-CBOE	64	59
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8		12.1	12
Advance/Dec-NYSE..		1371/1837	2168/1058
Weekly Net:		-466	1110
Cumulative:		165677	166143
Weekly	NYSE hi/low	402/52	428/42
New Hi's/Low's	Nasdaq h/l	250/108	230/98
McClellan	Oscillator	6	N/A
McClellanSum	.+750/-1000	586	N/A
Newsletter	Inv.Intel -Bull:tues	56.1	52.5
Surveys	Bear:-5yrs	13.3	15.1
	AAII -Bull :wed.	44.7	51.9
	Bear	24	19.2
COT:SPX w/w	large/small (net)k	3/(9)	N/A
COT:gold comm.hedg	long-short.000	(104k)	N/A
CEOinsider	selling	27:1	N/A
off.&bd b/s.vs.	10% holder b/s	175/35	N/A
3-box rev	Bullish%-	76	75
US equity -ICI	Fund Flows	WeekDelay	(2.2B)
MMF flows	Change in $B	(8.7B)	11B
MargDebt- top (300M)	monthly
ETF:mthlyEqty/	Int'l/Bond-$B
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation		0.51%	N/A

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