DIVIDED KINGDOM

Monday, September 15, 2014

DIVIDED KINGDOM

So far this week the markets are slightly positive, as consistently predicted (short term) by the McClellan Oscillator, which ended last week at minus 51. Much happening this week as the Fed tries to parse words about rates, BABA IPO comes out, and Scotland decides whether it wants a divided or united kingdom- DK or UK? (one floor trader I worked with used to use DK as short for Don't Know!)

For what it's worth, the 2-year Treas. yield jumped to a recent high last week at .56%, bringing up the question of Interest Rates versus Inflation. Stocks seem to do well with rising interest rates, especially if due to an improving economy- however, as Jim Paulsen posits, over the past 30 years 6 of the last 7 Inflation hikes have resulted in either corrections or Bear markets - the 7th waiting until 2008! Stock market rises have come during Disinflation.

Finally, despite the NYSE's Advance/decline "bad breadth", Inv. Intlell. Bears (from wire house newsletters) remain at complacent lows. Here are the numbers:

Date>		9/12/2014	9/5/2014
Indices:	DJIA	16987	17137
	NAZ	4567	4582
	SPX	1985	2007
WklyVolume (Bshs).	naz/ny	8.8/3.1	7.0/2.4
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish		2.84	2.9
Sentiment:	put/call-CBOE	60	64
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8		13.3	12.1
Advance/Dec-NYSE..		718/2528	1371/1837
Weekly Net:		-1810	-466
Cumulative:		163867	165677
Weekly	NYSE hi/low	219/123	402/52
New Hi's/Low's	Nasdaq h/l	195/148	250/108
McClellan	Oscillator	-51	6
McClellanSum	.+750/-1000	433	586
Newsletter	Inv.Intel -Bull:tues	57.6	56.1
Surveys	Bear:-5yrs	14.1	13.3
	AAII -Bull :wed.	40.4	44.7
	Bear	26.6	24
COT:SPX w/w	large/small (net)k	0/(7k)	3/(9)
COT:gold comm.hedg	long-short.000	(98k)	(104k)
CEOinsider	selling	48:1	27:1
off.&bd b/s.vs.	10% holder b/s	200/40	175/35
3-box rev	Bullish%-	75	76
US equity -ICI	Fund Flows	WeekDelay	(5.3B)
MMF flows	Change in $B	6.5B	(8.7B)
MargDebt- top (300M)	monthly		JULY
ETF:mthlyEqty/	Int'l/Bond-$B		JULY
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation		0.56%	0.51%

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