FLOOD WARNINGS!

As the rest of the world revolts, money seems to be flowing into  all U.S. assets today, from the stock markets, to gold and oil. Many Sentiment Indicators are at high levels, but off their prior recent extremes. A few notables, as defined in an (Older Post below) earlier column include Insider Selling, which was quite high at year end - expectedly- but resumed this week to 130 to 1 over Buying, with Board/Officers accounting for 200 sales (100 after exercising options), and about 25 being the 10% stockholders (Carl Icahn, et.al.).
Huge $$ came from MMFs (money markets) at $50B; charts show that the three previous highs in withdrawals were at early stages of a Bull run, in June 21, Oct. 18, and Dec.20 of 2013 - a good sign, short term. In my Examiner.com column I shall enumerate some disturbing negative technical signs:
 http://www.examiner.com/stock-market-in-san-francisco/brent-leonard .

Other extremes include Gold commercial sellers, despite today's and the recent rallies, at 97k.

Here are the numbers:

Date>		2/21/2014	2/14/2014
Indices:	DJIA	16103	16154
	NAZ	4263	4244
	SPX	1836	1838
WklyVolume (Bshs).	naz/ny	7.9/2.9	9.9/3.3
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish		2.72	.3.0
Sentiment:	put/call-CBOE	57	60
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8		14.7	13.6
Advance/Dec-NYSE..		1948/1247	2489/722
Weekly Net:		701	1767
Cumulative:		156516nh	155815nh
Weekly	NYSE hi/low	353/52	272/67
New Hi's/Low's	Nasdaq h/l	368/47	291/54
McClellan	Oscillator	44	63
McClellanSum	.+750/-1000	727	526
Newsletter	Inv.Intel -Bull:tues	46.5	41.8
Surveys	Bear:-5yrs	17.2	17.4
	AAII  -Bull :wed.	42.2	40.1
	Bear	22.8	27.3
COT:SPX w/w	large/small (net)k	5k/(25k)	4/(19)
COT:gold  comm.hedg	long-short.000	(97k)	(72k)
CEOinsider	selling	130:1	32:1
off.&bd b/s.vs.	10% holder b/s	200:25	150:40
3-box rev	Bullish%-	70	67
US equity -ICI	Fund Flows	WeekDelay	4.2B
MMF flows	Change in $B	(49B)	8B
MargDebt- top (300M)	monthly	445B	DEC.
ETF:mthlyEqty/	Int'l/Bond-$B	1028/399/246	DEC.
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation		0.32%	0.33%

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance

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FLOOD WARNINGS!

Glossary-Part II

In case you missed it, the previous blog reviewed each of the following Sentiment Indicators, for new readers and old (please see "Older Posts").

Last week indicated at least a temporary reprieve from the imminent Correction everyone was expecting, coming back strong with bargain hunters and Yellen supporters.Reversals and regressions to the means included put/call ratio, Volume ratio (near record high); VIX, cumulative (proprietary) to new highs; especially the AAII Bull to Bear ratio flipflop.

However, Insider selling and commercial gold selling remains strong,

Here are the numbers:

Date>		2/14/2014	2/7/2014
Indices:	DJIA	16154	15794
	NAZ	4244	4125
	SPX	1838	1797
WklyVolume (Bshs).	naz/ny	9.9/3.3	10.8/4.0
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish		.3.0	2.7
Sentiment:	put/call-CBOE	60	62
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8		13.6	15.3
Advance/Dec-NYSE..		2489/722	1721/1473
Weekly Net:		1767	248
Cumulative:		155815nh	154048
Weekly	NYSE hi/low	272/67	132/196
New Hi's/Low's	Nasdaq h/l	291/54	148/159
McClellan	Oscillator	63	14
McClellanSum	.+750/-1000	526	300
Newsletter	Inv.Intel -Bull:tues	41.8	45.9
Surveys	Bear:-5yrs	17.4	17.4
	AAII  -Bull :wed.	40.1	27.9
	Bear	27.3	36.4
COT:SPX w/w	large/small (net)k	4/(19)	(3k)/(2k)
COT:gold  comm.hedg	long-short.000	(72k)	(97k)
CEOinsider	selling	32:1	24:1
off.&bd b/s.vs.	10% holder b/s	150:40	160:25
3-box rev	Bullish%-	67	63
US equity -ICI	Fund Flows	WeekDelay	(1.6B)
MMF flows	Change in $B	8B	(1.0B
MargDebt- top (300M)	monthly		445B
ETF:mthlyEqty/	Int'l/Bond-$B		DEC.
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation		0.33%	0.30%

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance

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Glossary-Part II

Glossary of mktsentiment Indicators

For any new readers of this blog ( and a review for current readers) it seems like a good time to review the definitions of the Sentiment Indicators which I have settled on after 20 years of following them, pursuant to getting my CMT ( Chartered Market Technician) designation from the MTA. The ultimate question is how useful, short and long term, are these when the Federal Reserve seems to trump Contrary Opinion with its own.

(Recent record highs/lows follow in parents):

Wkly Volume: NASD as contrasted to NYSE Blue Chips indicates a speculative preference, if the ratio is high (3.17)

VIX: usually coincident, but indicates eventual trend change at extremes (90, 8.8)

Advance/Decline-NYSE: A breadth Indicator, market strength, but at extremes could signal reversal; Cumulative is multi-year net, which is now at all time high (155,8150

New Hi's/Lo's- also breadth, both NYSE and NASDAQ. Just reversed to positive w/w.

McClellan Oscillator and Summation - based on 5 and 10% formula of A/D (above). Bounds of +50 and -50 can indicate short term reversals. (current +63)

Newsletter Surveys:

Inv.Intell. - Wire house newsletters opinions - analysts and strategists. (62)

AAII - Individual Investors Bull/Bear ratio -just flipped back to positive (more complacent) - (Bulls also 63; Bears 70).

COT - Commitment of futures traders - smart versus dumb money.

            SPX futures:large investors v. small.

            Gold- commercial hedgers ( recently negative selling, despite rally).

Insider Selling - Jury still out on this one, but recent breakdown of Officers and Board versus 10% stock holders (less informed) may foretell longer term direction.

Bullish % is a point & figure chart of stocks on BUY signals (overbought)- (88%)

US Equity mutual funds (MUF) flows and MMF (money markets) in B$.

Finally, ETF flows: US Equity ETFs, Int'l, and Bond fund flows monthly, plus Margin Debt which is currently at record high (toppy) numbers. 2-year TSY could indicate Inflation eventually.

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance

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Glossary of mktsentiment Indicators

BACK TO NORMAL

Stocks seem to be on track with Janet Yellen to be more accommodative even than Ben. Only extremes were the dramatic reversal of the AAII Bull/Bear ratio over three weeks and the New His/Los going negative. Also, gold commercial traders actually increased selling, although an extreme oversold condition exists.The whole yield curve of Treasurys is also defying popular consensus.
Here are the numbers:

Date>		2/7/2014	1/31/2014
Indices:	DJIA	15794	15698
	NAZ	4125	4103
	SPX	1797	1782
WklyVolume (Bshs).	naz/ny	10.8/4.0	10.9/3.7
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish		2.7	2.95
Sentiment:	put/call-CBOE	62	57
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8		15.3	18.4
Advance/Dec-NYSE..		1721/1473	1451/1756
Weekly Net:		248	-305
Cumulative:		154048	153800
Weekly	NYSE hi/low	132/196	138/171
New Hi's/Low's	Nasdaq h/l	148/159	214/102
McClellan	Oscillator	14	-31
McClellanSum	.+750/-1000	300	443
Newsletter	Inv.Intel -Bull:tues	45.9	53.1
Surveys	Bear:-5yrs	17.4	15.3
	AAII  -Bull :wed.	27.9	32.2
	Bear	36.4	32.8
COT:SPX w/w	large/small (net)k	(3k)/(2k)	7/8k
COT:gold  comm.hedg	long-short.000	(97k)	(65K)
CEOinsider	selling	24:1	31:1
off.&bd b/s.vs.	10% holder b/s	160:25	215:40
3-box rev	Bullish%-	63	70
US equity -ICI	Fund Flows	WeekDelay	1.9B
MMF flows	Change in $B	(1.0B	(1.8B)
MargDebt- top (300M)	monthly		445B
ETF:mthlyEqty/	Int'l/Bond-$B	DEC.	1028/399/246
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation		0.30%	0.34%

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance

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BACK TO NORMAL

RUN FOR COVER!

Welcome to your new job, Ms. Yellen! Hardly the best way to start your first day on the job, with Mr. Market dropping like a rock. With all hubris aside, it is comforting to know that the investment strategy(s) I have been extolling for the past 5 years - Deep-In-The-Money COVERed Calls, and more recently, LEAP Strangles (OTM puts and calls) are doing splendidly in this environment.
With the DJIA down over 1200 points so far in 2014 (SPX down over 100), a report card of my 27 fully invested positions show 8 DITM positions, only one Under Water; of the 19 Leaps, 7 are still in the call-away area (max profit), 9 in the sweet spot, between the put and call strangle, and only 3 precious metal stocks Under Water, with 2016 as the expiry date. Having missed the unexpected 30% runup in stocks last year, it did provide a cushion or hedge against the inevitable.

Sentiment extremes include the record margin interest, updated last week to $445B, huge Insider selling (see below) 215 sales, with only 40 of the from ESOP exercises by officers and board members; 40 is also the number of sales by 10% holders. Coincidentally, the per cent of AAII Bears surpassed Bulls last week (a/o Wednesday), historically more reliable than the Inv. Intell. Bull/Bear survey.
Also in the monthly update was ETF totals, with Equity up over $1T; Int'l and Bond ETFs were frozen.
For more commentary, please visit: http://www.examiner.com/stock-market-in-san-francisco/brent-leonard

Here are the numbers:

  

Date>		1/31/2014	1/24/2014
Indices:	DJIA	15698	15879
	NAZ	4103	4128
	SPX	1782	1790
WklyVolume (Bshs).	naz/ny	10.9/3.7	8.6/3.1
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish		2.95	2.77
Sentiment:	put/call-CBOE	57	61
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8		18.4	18.14
Advance/Dec-NYSE..		1451/1756	1088/2130
Weekly Net:		-305	-1042
Cumulative:		153800	154105
Weekly	NYSE hi/low	138/171	366/91
New Hi's/Low's	Nasdaq h/l	214/102	412/59
McClellan	Oscillator	-31	-31
McClellanSum	.+750/-1000	443	622
Newsletter	Inv.Intel -Bull:tues	53.1	57.6
Surveys	Bear:-5yrs	15.3	15.1
	AAII  -Bull :wed.	32.2	38.1
	Bear	32.8	23.8
COT:SPX w/w	large/small (net)k	7/8k	7/21k
COT:gold  comm.hedg	long-short.000	(65K)	(46k)
CEOinsider	selling	31:1	70:1
off.&bd b/s.vs.	10% holder b/s	215:40	200:70
3-box rev	Bullish%-	70	79
US equity -ICI	Fund Flows	WeekDelay	WeekDelay
MMF flows	Change in $B	(1.8B)	6.4B
MargDebt- top (300M)	monthly	445B
ETF:mthlyEqty/	Int'l/Bond-$B	1028/399/246
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation		0.34%	0.35%

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance

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RUN FOR COVER!