I'M EVEN, I'M LEAVIN':

One of the predictable Behavioral flaws in investing, described in an excellent presentation at the TSAA this month by Richard Lehman of U.C. Berkeley's Finance Dept., was the "getting even" trait of investors - even going back to old highs five years ago. This is resulting in the difficulty of getting through the 14,000 DJIA mark convincingly, which is illustrated in Technical Analysis by logical Support and (in this case) Resistance.

As noted in previous blogs, Caution is now being warned by several of my Sentiment Indicators: High readings by the NASD to NYSE Volume ratio (bullish complacency); lower VIX - in the low teens; Bullish percent still in the '80s; and the newsletter surveys Bulls over Bears.

More at:   

http://www.examiner.com/stock-market-in-san-francisco/brent-leonard

Here are the numbers: 

 

Date>		2/22/2013	2/15/2013
Indices:	DJIA	14000	13981
	NAZ	3161	3192
	SPX	1515	1519
WklyVolume (Bshs).
NASD/NYSE		7.4/3.0	8.9/3.4
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish		2.47	2.62
nasd/nyse
Sentiment:	put/call-CBOE	65	60
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8		14.2	12.5
Advance/Dec-NYSE..		1386/1767	1735/1437
Weekly Net:		-381	298
Cumulative:		147330	147711
Weekly	NYSE hi/low	576/82	688/47
New Hi's/Low's	Nasdaq h/l	405/74	452/60
McClellan	Oscillator	-18	-6
McClellanSum	.+750/-1000	966	1048
Newsletter	Inv.Intel -Bull:tues	48.4	52.6
Surveys	Bear:-5yrs	22.1	21.1
	AAII  -Bull :wed.	41.8	42.3
	Bear	32.5	28.7
COT:Change w/w	large/small (net)k	17/19	17/12
CEOinsider	selling	58:1	43:1
3-box rev	Bullish%-	81	83
US equity -ICI	Fund Flows	1weeklag	.5B
MMF flows	Change in $B	(23.8B)	(12.3B)
MargDebt- top (300M)	monthly	Dec.	330B
ETF:Eqty/	Int'l/Bond	Dec.	764/329/243
Assets in	Billion$$ .
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation		0.26%	0.28%

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance

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I'M EVEN, I'M LEAVIN':

GOOD NEWS, BAD NEWS

Here are last week's Sentiment #s, still high on the danger list, but coming off the highs:

As usual, more commentary on:

http://www.examiner.com/stock-market-in-san-francisco/brent-leonard

 

Date>		2/15/2013	2/8/2013
Indices:	DJIA	13981	13992
	NAZ	3192	3193
	SPX	1519	1517
WklyVolume (Bshs).
NASD/NYSE		8.9/3.4	9.7/3.3
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish		2.62	2.94
nasd/nyse
Sentiment:	put/call-CBOE	60	62
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8		12.5	13
Advance/Dec-NYSE..		1735/1437	..1671/1467
Weekly Net:		298	204
Cumulative:		147711	147413
Weekly	NYSE hi/low	688/47	..580/37
New Hi's/Low's	Nasdaq h/l	452/60	..395/48
McClellan	Oscillator	-6	3
McClellanSum	.+750/-1000	1048	1055
Newsletter	Inv.Intel -Bull:tues		54.7
Surveys	Bear:-5yrs		21.1
	AAII  -Bull :wed.		42.8
	Bear		29.6
COT:Change w/w	large/small (net)k	17/12	13/26
CEOinsider	selling	43:1	72:1
3-box rev	Bullish%-	83	82
US equity -ICI	Fund Flows	1weeklag	3.5B
MMF flows	Change in $B	(12.3B)	(3.7B)
MargDebt- top (300M)	monthly	330B	DEC.
ETF:Eqty/	Int'l/Bond	764/329/243	DEC.
Assets in	Billion$$ .
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation		0.28%	0.26%

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance

Subscribe in a reader

GOOD NEWS, BAD NEWS

YEAR OF THE SNAKE!

Sentiment Indicators are reaching  several old recent highs of complacency and breadth that even the Fed cannot ignore or correct. More text at:

http://www.examiner.com/stock-market-in-san-francisco/brent-leonard

Here are last week's numbers: 

Date>		2/8/2013	2/1/2013
Indices:	DJIA	13992	14009
	NAZ	3193	3179
	SPX	1517	1513
WklyVolume (Bshs).
NASD/NYSE		9.7/3.3	10.0/3.8
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish		2.94	2.63
nasd/nyse
Sentiment:	put/call-CBOE	62	68
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8		13	12.9
Advance/Dec-NYSE..		..1671/1467	..1764/1384
Weekly Net:		204	380
Cumulative:		147413	147209
Weekly	NYSE hi/low	..580/37	..725/48
New Hi's/Low's	Nasdaq h/l	..395/48	..496/51
McClellan	Oscillator	3	14
McClellanSum	.+750/-1000	1055	1083
Newsletter	Inv.Intel -Bull:tues	54.7	54.3
Surveys	Bear:-5yrs	21.1	22.3
	AAII  -Bull :wed.	42.8	48
	Bear	29.6	24.3
COT:Change w/w	large/small (net)k	13/26	14/24
CEOinsider	selling	72:1	64:1
3-box rev	Bullish%-	82	82
US equity -ICI	Fund Flows	3.5B	1weeklag
MMF flows	Change in $B	(3.7B)	(.1B)
MargDebt- top (300M)	monthly	DEC.	330B
ETF:Eqty/	Int'l/Bond	DEC.	764/329/243
Assets in	Billion$$ .
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation		0.26%	0.29%

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance

Subscribe in a reader

YEAR OF THE SNAKE!

W(H)ITHER THE DOW?

As this blog has noted all year (??), caution is to be used in the stock market, due to several toppy Indicators, especially the previous week. Please visit the Examiner.com column for detailed text of this past week's signals:  

http://www.examiner.com/stock-market-in-san-francisco/brent-leonard

Date>		2/1/2013	1/25/2013
Indices:	DJIA	14009	13895
	NAZ	3179	3149
	SPX	1513	1502
WklyVolume (Bshs).
NASD/NYSE		10.0/3.8	7.3/2.7
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish		2.63	2.70
nasd/nyse
Sentiment:	put/call-CBOE	68	66
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8		12.9	12.9
Advance/Dec-NYSE..		1764/1384	2181/957
Weekly Net:		380	1224
Cumulative:		147209	146829
Weekly	NYSE hi/low	725/48	794/32
New Hi's/Low's	Nasdaq h/l	496/51	432/32
McClellan	Oscillator	14	35
McClellanSum	.+750/-1000	1083	1046
Newsletter	Inv.Intel -Bull:tues	54.3	53.2
Surveys	Bear:-5yrs	22.3	22.3
	AAII  -Bull :wed.	48	52.3
	Bear	24.3	24.3
COT:Change w/w	large/small (net)k	14/24	12/35.
CEOinsider	selling	64:1	47:1
3-box rev	Bullish%-	82	81
US equity -ICI	Fund Flows	1weeklag	3.5B
MMF flows	Change in $B	(.1B)	(4.9B)
MargDebt- top (300M)	monthly	330B
ETF:Eqty/	Int'l/Bond	764/329/243
Assets in	Billion$$ .
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation		0.29%	0.29%

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance

Subscribe in a reader

W(H)ITHER THE DOW?