UNDER THE COUNTER; "BEAR"-LY BELOW:

According to my records of weekly closes, the Nasdaq is only 4.3% below its all-time highs of the last decade; the SPX down 17.7% and the DJIA 13.2%. Whether the NAZ can make new highs depends on the usual year-end rally and the upcoming Bullish 6-months cycle (Nov. to Apr.). The Election year of a Presidential (4-year Kinchen) cycle is usually slightly up. Beyond that, Martin Pring's Lost Decade is still the dominant cycle, echoing Japan's previous markets.

Here are the numbers:

MktSentiment	Last Week	Prev. Week	5 Yr HI	5 Yr LOW
DJIA:	12234	11808	14093	6626
Nasdaq:	2737	2637	2861	1114
S&P 500:	1285	1238	1561	683
CBOE Eq. put/call:	59	64	96-10/08	46-1/03
VIX:	24.5	31.3	90	8.8
McClellan Osc:	77	69	108	(123)
McClellan Sum:	546	173	1568	(1514)
Newsletter Surveys
InvestorsIntel.Bull:	40.0	35.8	63	22.21
InvestorsIntel.Bear:	37.9	41.0	54.4	16
AAII Bull:	43.0	36.0	n/a	n/a
AAII Bear:	25.0	34.6	n/a	n/a
US Equity-1 week lag	n/a	(3.5B)
Money Market Flows	0	(2B)
Baltic Dry Index:	2153	2161	11700	663
Bullish %:	77	63	89	2
Insider Corporate Sellers:	29:1	60:1	235:1	2.4:1

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance

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UNDER THE COUNTER; "BEAR"-LY BELOW:

TWIST AND SHOUT! :

While the Fed does the Twist with Zero interest rates impoverishing prudent investors while banks prosper, Occupy Wall St. shouts displeasure (37% of those polled agree with them). Uncle Ben predicted that the QEs would raise the stock market, but failed to mention the prices of oil, food, etc. that the average citizen had to buy, while receiving negative interest after Inflation (2 1/2%), taxes (going up soon), and a weakening $.
The year-end rally has begun, according to various cycles, but could become sticky around the current level (Jan., Mar., and Jun. lows/Support). 
Last week imitated the new PBS TV program Red/Green on my charts - a rarity in Volatility. Disappointing was that the Nasdaq (which indicates Bullish speculation) did not rise along with the DJ and SPX. Its New Highs/Lows also remain negative as well.
Although the McClellan Summation made its first positive reading since last July ( positive breakthrough), the Oscillator remains overbought at +69. Another interesting number is the Insider Selling of Key Officers - it has jumped from a record low of 3:1, two weeks ago, through 30:1 to 60:1. Early Christmas shopping?
AND NOW FOR A COMMERCIAL:
Readers who follow my 3-year testing of my Optimal DITM covered call strategy on http://ditmcalls.blogspot.com are advised that after 25 years of managing substantial family money (3 with DITM), I have decided to take on a few clients (under the SEC minimum), since although DITM seems like a simple strategy, people have asked me at various lectures and booksignings to manage it for them. More details are available at the blog or brentleonard59@gmail.com if interested.
Here are the numbers from last week:

MktSentiment	Last Week	Prev. Week	5 Yr HI	5 Yr LOW
DJIA:	11808	11644	14093	6626
Nasdaq:	2637	2667	2861	1114
S&P 500:	1238	1224	1561	683
CBOE Eq. put/call:	64	66	96-10/08	46-1/03
VIX:	31.3	28	90	8.8
McClellan Osc:	69	80	108	(123)
McClellan Sum:	173	(74)	1568	(1514)
Newsletter Surveys
InvestorsIntel.Bull:	35.8	34.4	63	22.21
InvestorsIntel.Bear:	41.0	46.3	54.4	16
AAII Bull:	36.0	39.8	n/a	n/a
AAII Bear:	34.6	36.4	n/a	n/a
US Equity-1 week lag	n/a	(5.9B)
Money Market Flows	(2B)	5B
Baltic Dry Index:	2161	2155	11700	663
Bullish %:	63	55	89	2
Insider Corporate Sellers:	60:1	30:1	235:1	2.4:1

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance

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TWIST AND SHOUT! :

PRICE-LESS:

Of my two trips to wonderful downtown Sunnyvale last week, the one Saturday to hear Price Headley talk for 5 hours on Technical Analysis and Metastock indicators - I believe Price used to work for Bernie Schaeffer, the Sentiment guru, before becoming one of the rising stars in market analysis- was by far the most worthwhile.
The Thursday event with Stan Ehrlich, despite his years of experience and accomplishments, was a non-event. I would recommend the reader to check out BigTrends.com for Price's information. At the beginning of the talk he polled the audience of @ 100 how it viewed the 1-month, 6-month and 1-year time frames. At the break, the results were revealed to be most Bullish for all three -with predictions of 1249, 1441, and 1550 on the S&P 500, respectively - I, contrarily, was not among the last two, sharing Martin Pring's Lost Decade scenario for a few more years - hence my DITM strategy (see ditmcalls.blogspot.com if unfamiliar).
Speaking of Sentiment, I was surprised Sunday night to see the futures quite positive for Monday's opening, but overnight they slipped into strong negative territory - no doubt due (not) to European uncertainty by the media. The signal I saw for a short term overbought condition was a plus 80 on the McClellan Oscillator - a very reliable Indicator.
Especially after such a strong runup last week. Volume was quite weak on the upturn, and several Bullish Indicators regressed to the mean last week.In fact the Inv.Intell. ratio showed more Bulls than Bears for the first time in over a month. The Bullish % of stocks on a Buy signal leapt from 29 to 55 on the Pt.& Fig. chart, and Insider Selling also jumped from a super low 3:1 to 30:1
Here are the numbers:

MktSentiment	Last Week	Prev. Week	5 Yr HI	5 Yr LOW
DJIA:	11644	11103	14093	6626
Nasdaq:	2667	2479	2861	1114
S&P 500:	1224	1155	1561	683
CBOE Eq. put/call:	66	74	96-10/08	46-1/03
VIX:	28	36	90	8.8
McClellan Osc:	80	9	108	(123)
McClellan Sum:	(74)	(386)	1568	(1514)
Newsletter Surveys
InvestorsIntel.Bull:	34.4	34.4	63	22.21
InvestorsIntel.Bear:	46.35.2	45.2	54.4	16
AAII Bull:	39.8	35.2	n/a	n/a
AAII Bear:	36.4	45.7	n/a	n/a
US Equity-1 week lag	n/a	(4.2B)
Money Market Flows	(3B)	5B
Baltic Dry Index:	2155	2000	11700	663
Bullish %:	55	29	89	2
Insider Corporate Sellers:	30:1	3:1	235:1	2.4:1

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance

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PRICE-LESS:

IT NEVER RAINS IN SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA - IT POURS !:

Back from vacation, where the weather was as volatile as the stock market, I was happy to see little damage to my DITM covered call strategy, made whole by today's rally. Although the VIX came off the 4 handle down to 36, the CBOE equity put/call ratio zoomed up to 74 - good for the market (as we saw today). NYSE new highs to lows were an incredible 33 to 1,296; 23/947 on the OTC. Both newsletter surveys - Inv.Intell. and AAII remained inverted, with more Bears. Insider selling to buying was a lowly 3:1 ratio. Money actually went into MMFs for the first time in a month; monthly data on ETFs showed money coming out of equity and international funds -level in bonds. The 2010 support level on the SPX (S&P500) held at 1100 -now trying to break resistance at 1200.

MktSentiment	Last Week	Prev. Week	5 Yr HI	5 Yr LOW
DJIA:	11103	10913	14093	6626
Nasdaq:	2479	2415	2861	1114
S&P 500:	1155	1131	1561	683
CBOE Eq. put/call:	74	72	96-10/08	46-1/03
VIX:	36	43	90	8.8
McClellan Osc:	9	na	108	(123)
McClellan Sum:	(386)	(na)	1568	(1514)
Newsletter Surveys
InvestorsIntel.Bull:	34.4	37.6	63	22.21
InvestorsIntel.Bear:	45.2	40.9	54.4	16
AAII Bull:	35.2	32.5	n/a	n/a
AAII Bear:	45.7	46.8	n/a	n/a
US Equity-1 week lag	n/a	(5.7B)
Money Market Flows	5.0B	(1.7B)
Baltic Dry Index:	2000	na	11700	663
Bullish %:	29	22	89	2
Insider Corporate Sellers:	3:1	na	235:1	2.4:1

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance

Subscribe in a reader

IT NEVER RAINS IN SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA - IT POURS !: