Except for 1990, this is the lowest the market's Q Ratio (Price to Assets) has been since 1983; current home sales were the lowest in 1982; personal savings peaked at 11% in 1983; the unemployment rate the past two years was the worst since 1982; and previous money supply peaks (a few months ago at 9.1%) are similar to '82, '88, and '02 rallies.
Shorter term, however, some extremes that foretold the recent correction still are present: the McClellan Oscillator is at +52; my cumulative A/D is at a record high; the Inv.Intell. Bulls remain above 50%, and the large speculators from the Commitment of Traders remain net short. Finally, the Bullish per cent broke up above 80 again. Here are the numbers:
MktSentiment | Last Week | Prev. Week | 5 Yr HI | 5 Yr LOW |
DJIA: | 12376 | 12220 | 14093 | 6626 |
Nasdaq: | 2789 | 2743 | 2861 | 1114 |
S&P 500: | 1332 | 1313 | 1561 | 683 |
CBOE Eq. put/call: | 54 | 56 | 96-10/08 | 46-1/03 |
VIX: | 17.4 | 17.9 | 90 | 8.8 |
McClellan Osc: | 52 | 24 | 108 | (123) |
McClellan Sum: | 597 | 426 | 1568 | (1514) |
Newsletter Surveys | ||||
InvestorsIntel.Bull: | 51.6 | 50.6 | 63 | 22.21 |
InvestorsIntel.Bear: | 23.1 | 22.4 | 54.4 | 16 |
AAII Bull: | 41.8 | 37.7 | n/a | n/a |
AAII Bear: | 31.1 | 35.0 | n/a | n/a |
US Equity-1 week lag | n/a | (2.5B) | ||
Money Market Flows | 3.9B | (7.8B) | ||
Baltic Dry Index: | 1530 | 1583 | 11700 | 663 |
Bullish %: | 81 | 77 | 89 | 2 |
Insider Corporate Sellers: | 28:1 | 23:1 | 198:1 | 2.4:1 |
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