MAY DAY (M'AIDEZ):

In one of the rarest occasions, next week's blog will be MIA, as I shall be incommunicado on vacation at Lake Tahoe, playing the real casino instead of the stock market. I'll have my trusty Droid to keep up with the markets, but will not be able to post Sentiment results.

Today's large drop only validates the Sentiment signals blaring out since the first of the year (see previous blogs). We have yet to break to a new high greater than February's and remain in a Trading Range.

Notable extremes include the VIX, at 15, but also the CBOE put/call ratio, high, at 64. The Investors' Intelligence Bull/Bear ratio remains wide (complacent), with the Bullish % toppy at 80%.

MktSentiment	Last Week	Prev. Week	5 Yr HI	5 Yr LOW
DJIA:	12341	12380	14093	6626
Nasdaq:	2764	2780	2861	1114
S&P 500:	1319	1328	1561	683
CBOE Eq. put/call:	64	57	96-10/08	46-1/03
VIX:	15.3	17.9	90	8.8
McClellan Osc:	(16)	(5)	108	(123)
McClellan Sum:	556	736	1568	(1514)
Newsletter Surveys
InvestorsIntel.Bull:	55.4	57.3	63	22.21
InvestorsIntel.Bear:	16.3	15.7	54.4	16
AAII Bull:	42.2	43.6	n/a	n/a
AAII Bear:	31.0	28.8	n/a	n/a
US Equity-1 week lag	n/a	(.3B)
Money Market Flows	2.3B	8.3B
Baltic Dry Index:	1296	1430	11700	663
Bullish %:	80	82	89	2
Insider Corporate Sellers:	22:1	45:1	198:1	2.4:1

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance

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MAY DAY (M'AIDEZ):

HOPE AND CASH:

I recently received an e-mail that said: In the '60s we had Bob Hope and Johnny Cash; today we have NO HOPE AND NO CASH!

Jeremy Siegel. of Stocks For The Long Run is projecting a huge Bull market in the near future. Despite Martin Pring's second Lost Decade scenario (which I've also bought into with my DITM strategy), a couple of notable technicians are also calling for another Bull market. Tom McClellan , using a 10-year offset correlation to Oil's price moves, sees a rally AFTER 2012 (Mayan Calendar anyone?). Also Jeff Hirsch, of the Traders' Almanac tracks markets after wars and sees 38,000 DJIA by 2025.

Shorter term, however, much conventional wisdom sees lower prices in the second half of 2011, after QEII. Judging by the Inv.Intell. Bull/Bear spread, it might even start very soon: Bulls at 57% are near their Dec. '04 high, while the Bears, slipping to 15.7% is a tenth above the recent multi-year low.

Here are the numbers:

MktSentiment	Last Week	Prev. Week	5 Yr HI	5 Yr LOW
DJIA:	12380	12376	14093	6626
Nasdaq:	2780	2789	2861	1114
S&P 500:	1328	1332	1561	683
CBOE Eq. put/call:	57	54	96-10/08	46-1/03
VIX:	17.9	17.4	90	8.8
McClellan Osc:	(5)	52	108	(123)
McClellan Sum:	736	597	1568	(1514)
Newsletter Surveys
InvestorsIntel.Bull:	57.3	51.6	63	22.21
InvestorsIntel.Bear:	15.7	23.1	54.4	15.6
AAII Bull:	43.6	41.8	n/a	n/a
AAII Bear:	28.8	31.1	n/a	n/a
US Equity-1 week lag	n/a	.3B
Money Market Flows	8.3B	3.9B
Baltic Dry Index:	1430	1530	11700	663
Bullish %:	82	81	89	2
Insider Corporate Sellers:	45:1	28:1	198:1	2.4:1

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance

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HOPE AND CASH:

RALLY HO!

With the S&P500 only a few points below the Feb. weekly closing high, this could be a Critical Market Juncture whether we continue blissfully upwards or slump into summer. Since 1950, in 15 out of 15 times, the market rose after mid-term elections in double digits - so far we are up 8.7%.
Except for 1990, this is the lowest the market's Q Ratio (Price to Assets) has been since 1983; current home sales were the lowest in 1982; personal savings peaked at 11% in 1983; the unemployment rate the past two years was the worst since 1982; and previous money supply peaks (a few months ago at 9.1%) are similar to '82, '88, and '02 rallies.
Shorter term, however, some extremes that foretold the recent correction still are present: the McClellan Oscillator is at +52; my cumulative A/D is at a record high; the Inv.Intell. Bulls remain above 50%, and the large speculators from the Commitment of Traders remain net short. Finally, the Bullish per cent broke up above 80 again. Here are the numbers:   

MktSentiment	Last Week	Prev. Week	5 Yr HI	5 Yr LOW
DJIA:	12376	12220	14093	6626
Nasdaq:	2789	2743	2861	1114
S&P 500:	1332	1313	1561	683
CBOE Eq. put/call:	54	56	96-10/08	46-1/03
VIX:	17.4	17.9	90	8.8
McClellan Osc:	52	24	108	(123)
McClellan Sum:	597	426	1568	(1514)
Newsletter Surveys
InvestorsIntel.Bull:	51.6	50.6	63	22.21
InvestorsIntel.Bear:	23.1	22.4	54.4	16
AAII Bull:	41.8	37.7	n/a	n/a
AAII Bear:	31.1	35.0	n/a	n/a
US Equity-1 week lag	n/a	(2.5B)
Money Market Flows	3.9B	(7.8B)
Baltic Dry Index:	1530	1583	11700	663
Bullish %:	81	77	89	2
Insider Corporate Sellers:	28:1	23:1	198:1	2.4:1

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance

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RALLY HO!