Monday, September 13, 2010

Thank Goodness It's Fall!:

Contrarian's Delight - Media hype is that September (and October) are the worst times for stocks. So far...so good. On the worst Volume and smallest indices moves in awhile - Sentiment Indicators were jumping all around last week, as we approached the top of the 1025-1125 S&P500 Trading Range.
Thanks to Labor Day and Rosh Hashana, trading was weak, but mostly positive.
My cumulative A/D went to another new high, as did NYSE new highs - much of which are bond-like securities (Pfds, CEFs, ETFs); but the Nasdaq new hi's/lo's inverted positive.
Newsletter surveys went Bearish FOR the market, especially the AAII ratio.
And CEO Insider Selling quadrupled to 21:1, but exchanges Short Interest shot up @5%.
The BDI, or Baltic Dry Index, a proxy for the global economy, hit a 3-month high, as did the WIP, the World Inflation Index.
Finally, large numbers of $$ flowed out of domestic equity mutual funds and into MMFs.

After next week I shall be vacationing with family in SoCal, so the blog will be temporarily interrupted.
When returning, I have been invited to speak to the Silicon Valley Option Group on Oct.13, at the San Jose Embassy Suites, and also a Marin investor group.
Topic will be my DITM, or Deep-In-The-Money option strategy which has performed very well in this economy - I shall also be starting a new blog citing the actual trading results since its inception in 2009: very close to the historic 100-year stock market average of 10%, when markets are now still at 1998 levels!
Here are a couple of recent results with opening date, Symbol and Total Net Return :
7/14/2010 PFE 19.07%
10/29/09 DD 8.70%
2/26/10 MRK 11.4%

And here are the Sentiment Indicators:

MktSentiment Last Week
Prev. Week 5 Yr HI 5 Yr LOW
DJIA:10462
10447
14093
6626
Nasdaq:
2242
2133
2805
1114
S&P 500:
1109
1104
1561
683
CBOE Eq. put/call: 61
58
96-10/08
46-1/03
VIX:
22.0
21.3
90
8.8
McClellan Osc:43
48
108
(123)
McClellan Sum:
502
376
1568
(1514)
Newsletter Surveys




InvestorsIntel.Bull:
33.3
29.4
63
22.21
InvestorsIntel.Bear:
32.2
37.7
54.4
16
AAII Bull:
43.9
30.8
n/an/a
AAII Bear:
31.6
42.2
n/a
n/a
Nova/Ursa Mutual Funds:
n/a
n/a
2.2
0.56
US Equity-1 week lag
n/a
(7.6B)


Money Market Flows
10.6B
(6.2B)


ETF equity:Monthly Totals
n/a
n/a
n/a

Baltic Dry Index:2995
2835
11700
663
Bullish %:
52
49
88
2
Insider Corporate Sellers:
21:1
5:1
108:1
2.4:1




With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance


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