Monday, September 20, 2010

DANCING WITH THE TSARS:

DIS-Appointment?: Apparently recent Presidents believe that they can bypass Congress by setting up unvoted-on offices, such as Liz Warren's new position. Although she may be a brilliant and dedicated person, the idea of more gov't is grist for the Constitutionalists' Mill.
Autumn leaves may turn to Tea leaves in November.
Meanwhile, nothing upsets the market's proclivity to undermine the September curse (so far) - October may be a different animal. Volume, which, for some reason is never tracked on CNBC,Bloomie, got back to normal last week, thanks to option expiry, which is also rarely mentioned as having an effect on markets.
Most Sentiment Indicators were benign, with the exception of the AAII Bull/Bear ratio, which comes out on Wednesdays - it flashed a 50.9% Bulls, which is getting complacent - while the complementary Bears dropped 7% to 24.3.
Corporate (legal) Insider Selling jumped by a factor of 6 times the total of 2 weeks ago. MMF flows also leapt from $10B Inflow to a negative $25B outflow - most likely to Emerging markets and fixed income.
Here are the numbers:

MktSentiment Last Week
Prev. Week 5 Yr HI 5 Yr LOW
DJIA:10607
10462
14093
6626
Nasdaq:
2315
2242
2805
1114
S&P 500:
1125
1109
1561
683
CBOE Eq. put/call: 57
61
96-10/08
46-1/03
VIX:
22.0
22.0
90
8.8
McClellan Osc:25
43
108
(123)
McClellan Sum:
695
502
1568
(1514)
Newsletter Surveys




InvestorsIntel.Bull:
36.7
33.3
63
22.21
InvestorsIntel.Bear:
31.1
32.2
54.4
16
AAII Bull:
50.9
43.9
n/an/a
AAII Bear:
24.3
31.6
n/a
n/a
Nova/Ursa Mutual Funds:
n/a
n/a
2.2
0.56
US Equity-1 week lag
n/a
(2.2B)


Money Market Flows
(24.6B)
10.6B


ETF equity:Monthly Totals
n/a
n/a
n/a

Baltic Dry Index:2737
2995
11700
663
Bullish %:
57
52
88
2
Insider Corporate Sellers:
32:1
21:1
108:1
2.4:1

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance


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