Monday, January 4, 2010

MERRY X-MISS - NO SANTA CLAUS RALLY THIS YEAR:

Just as cycles sometimes invert (tops instead of cyclic lows), 2009 was a Contrarian's dream: no bad Sept., no October Crash, etc. - so many talking heads with egg on their faces. Also, the Santa Claus rally, so often found between Xmas and New Year's Eve, failed to materialize as well.

The last week understandably showed very weak Volume and breadth, except for the New Highs/Lows (only5 on the NYSE). The Bullish % is getting toppy, but still rising, at 79, on a Buy signal;   my cumulative A/D total is near a record high; Inv.Intell. Bears hit a new low of 15.6. The Burke Bulls divided by Total Bull+Bears is the worst for the market since July '07! The Insider Selling was at a recent record of 51:1 - but the last week of the year is often the silly season of book-squaring. Tune in next week!

Here is the table:

MktSentiment
Last Week
Prev. Week
5 Yr HI
5 Yr LOW
DJIA:
10428
10520
14093
6626
Nasdaq:
2269
2285
2805
1114
S&P 500:
1115
1126
1561
683
CBOE Eq. put/call:
61
58
96-10/08
46-1/03
VIX:
21.7
19.5
90
8.8
McClellan Osc:
-1
59
108
-100
McClellan Sum:
863
757
1568
-1514
Newsletter Surveys




InvestorsIntel.Bull:
51.1
52.2
63
22.21
InvestorsIntel.Bear:
15.6
16.7
54.4
16
AAII Bull:
49.2
37.7
n/a
n/a
AAII Bear:
23.0
37.7
n/a
n/a
Nova/Ursa Mutual Funds:
0.62
0.67
2.2
0.56
Mutual Fund Flows:1 wk delay
n/a
3B


Money Market Flows
22B
2.59B


ETF equity:Monthly Totals
Nov 738B
Oct 591B


Baltic Dry Index:
3005
3258
11700
663
Bullish %:
79
77
88
2
Insider Corporate Sellers:
51:1
28:1
108:1
2.4:1

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance


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