This past weekend Martin Pring and partner Joe Turner ( former President of the TSAA technical securities group) held a 3+ hour investment meeting at Golden Gate Univ.in San Francisco which was probably the most comprehensive, actionable presentation given anywhere for a number of years. Found at www.pringturner.com website, this presentation, called the Lost Decade, compares our past and future decades to the failed 20-year Japanese market - economically and securities-wise.
The upshot was that Treasuries, especially 20-year and Intermediates 7-10 could start tanking any day (with yields breaking out to the upside), Industrial Commodities should be the asset class of choice, with stocks heading higher (after a correction) for the near future.
The ongoing imbroglio that I helped start by my seeking Barron's Michael Santoli's views on gov't intervention into the stock market (why not? They are everywhere else lately) resulted in a sharp refutation of a "conspiracy theory" by him. This even continues in his column this weekend. Trimtabs' Charles Biderman, who is the master of liquidity flows (for many of the hedge funds, etc.) opined that much of the March stock market rally was due to aftermarket futures trading by the gov't/ which, as with Bernanke, could cause all sorts of problems if the "stimulus" is stopped or removed. True or not, it does make sense that it is one of the few things that they can control with a Plunge Protection Team, alive since well before the 21st C. Employment and healthcare aren't going too well, The fullness of time will tell!
Back to sentiment - the option expiration week (which I call exasperation week) saw a volatile week with innumerable Sell indications -although they haven't dropped the market to date (conspiracy again). The Inv.Intell.Bulls hit a high of 53%, not seen since Oct. '07 (a day that will last.....)
Breadth and sentiment are shown overbought by Bullish % at 83, Nova/Ursa funds at 0.73, and Insider selling at 38:1, down from its recent highs. My cumulative Adv./Decl. is at an alltime high, and new highs to lows on the NYSE was 810 to 3.
Here are the numbers:
|
MktSentiment
| Last Week
| Prev. Week
| 5 Yr HI
| 5 Yr LOW
|
DJIA:
| 10609
| 10618
| 14093
| 6626
|
Nasdaq:
| 2288
| 2317
| 2805
| 1114
|
S&P 500:
| 1136
| 1145
| 1561
| 683
|
CBOE Eq. put/call:
| 56
| 52
| 96-10/08
| 46-1/03
|
VIX:
| 17.9
| 18.1
| 90
| 8.8
|
McClellan Osc:
| -10
| 33
| 108
| -100
|
McClellan Sum:
| 1064
| 1008
| 1568
| -1514
|
Newsletter Surveys
|
|
|
|
|
InvestorsIntel.Bull:
| 53.4
| 48.3
| 63
| 22.21
|
InvestorsIntel.Bear:
| 15.9
| 16.9
| 54.4
| 16
|
AAII Bull:
| 47.4
| 41.0
| n/a
| n/a
|
AAII Bear:
| 26.9
| 26.0
| n/a
| n/a
|
Nova/Ursa Mutual Funds:
| 0.73
| 0.75
| 2.2
| 0.56
|
Mutual Fund Flows:1 wk delay
| n/a
| -.7B
|
|
|
Money Market Flows
| -21.7B
| 14B
|
|
|
ETF equity:Monthly Totals
| Nov 738B
| Oct 591B
|
|
|
Baltic Dry Index:
| 3235
| 3149
| 11700
| 663
|
Bullish %:
| 83
| 82
| 88
| 2
|
Insider Corporate Sellers:
| 38:1
| 58:1
| 108:1
| 2.4:1
|
With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding.
For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance
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