GREEN SHOOTS OR WEEDS?:

Conventional wisdom believes that the market should continue to rise into Fall, although a few frequent TSAA guest speakers (www.tsaasf.org) quoted this week in Barron's are skeptical of the longer term: Jim Bianco, feels the $8T in corporate debt could cause a second leg down; William Gibson of S.F.'s Nollenberg says the Primary Trend is down based on which stocks have led the recent rally - the top 10 RSI (Relative Strength) stocks were the beaten down dogs, while quality EPS stocks lagged; Bob Prechter weighs in with his usually gloomy forecast of the DJIA receding 50 to 80% more!
Sentiment extremes this week were centric except for a couple notables: the McClellan Oscillator went negative (-38) for the first time since March 6, although the Summation Index is still overbought at the thousand level. The Baltic Dry Index is once again screaming upwards, to the 2500 level - an indication of global economies rebounding, especially in the Far East.
Money is starting to flow back into both open end mutual funds and ETFs, and the Bullish per cent topped out at 74 the previous week (now 67), leading to its 3-box (2Pt.& fig.), or 6% correction SELL signal.
Here are the numbers:

MktSentiment. 5/13/2009 Prev. Week.....5Yr.HI......LOW

DJIA ………. 8268……….8574.………..14093............6626

Nasdaq………. 1680……….1739…………2810.............1114

S&P500…….. 882…………929………….1561………..683

CBOE Eq. put/call …63…………..59……..…96-10/08….....46-1/03

VIX ………. 33.1……….32.0……….79..-10/08bull….10.0-7/05 bear

McClellan Osc………-38…………52………..108-1/09 bear...(-100)-10/08bull

McClelSum……….…1132………1217……..…....1568-6/03.......-1514-10/08

Newsletter Surveys:

Inv.Intel -Bull:…..…41…………..40.4…….…63 (12/04bear)...22.2-10/08bull

Bear:………… 33.7………..31.5…………… 54.4.10/08.......16-6/03

AAII-Bull/Bear ……43.8/35.2…..44.1/33.3….…..18.9/70.3 n/a

Baltic Dry Index ……2544………2214…………11700…………………663

Bullish%- …….…67…………..74………….…88 -2/04bear.....2-10/08bull

*Insider corp sellers.19:1………..32:1………..108………….2.4:1 (11/08)

Mutual Fund Inflows ..2.3B………2B

ETF InflowsL……… 4.8B……..(4.3B)……

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GREEN SHOOTS OR WEEDS?: