FOR IT'S A LONG, LONG TIME:

From May to December! In previous blogs I have noted the huge difference in the historical semi-annual cycle market performance - the near-neutral of the May to Nov. period, versus the astronomical complementary period. So far, this year is no different, with the huge rally YTD, although technician Ned Davis says we still have much farther to go up, including May.
While most indicators are becoming slightly complacent, moving into the midrange, the newsletter surveys have finally slipped from their Bearish stance (Bullish FOR the market) rather materially; the Bullish Per Cent is at recent record highs at 74, and the McClellan Summation Index surpassed +1,000 at 1217.
CEO Insider Selling is still huge, albeit down from the previous record weeks. And the public is starting to enter Mutual Funds again, a bad sign.
Here are the numbers:

MktSentiment. 5/08/2009 Prev. Week.....5Yr.HI......LOW

DJIA ………. 8574………8212.………..14093............6626

Nasdaq………. 1739………1719…………2810.............1114

S&P500…….. 929…………877………….1561………..683

CBOE Eq. put/call …59…………..63……..…96-10/08….....46-1/03

VIX ………. 32.0………35.3…….…….79..-10/08bull….10.0-7/05 bear

McClellan Osc………52…………43……………..108-1/09 bear...(-100)-10/08bull

McClelSum……….…1217………968……..…....1568-6/03.......-1514-10/08

Newsletter Surveys:

Inv.Intel -Bull:…..…40.4…………36……….…63 (12/04bear)...22.2-10/08bull

Bear:………… 31.5………..37.2…………… 54.4.10/08.......16-6/03

AAII-Bull/Bear ……44.1/33.3…..36.1?43.6….…..18.9/70.3 n/a

Baltic Dry Index ……2214………1806…………11700…………………663

Bullish%- …….…74…………..67………….…88 -2/04bear.....2-10/08bull

*Insider corp sellers.32:1………. 51:1………..108………….2.4:1 (11/08)

Mutual Fund Inflows 2B………. (.25B

ETF InflowsL……… (4.3B)……(.75B)…

www.mktsentiment.blogspot.com is a free weekly display of important contrary opinion statistics, with the disclosure that eventual fees may be paid to the author from readers clicking on the website and/or the small ad at the top of the column.

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FOR IT'S A LONG, LONG TIME: