IS THIS RALLY FAUX/REAL?:

The major markets have hit a well-defined Resistance level of 8200-8400 DJIA and 840 SPX and backed off recently to, as Dr. Pruden calls a Stop-Look-& Listen period, to see if there is enough demand (read Volume) to break up through this galaxy, including a 9-year declining tops Trendline @ the 8200 level.
Veteran analyst Phil Roth notes that although the rally has been driven almost entirely by Institutional Investors, their using ETFs would indicate they are not buying individual value stocks, rather playing an oversold, shortcovering rally prompted by the IMF and U.S. gov'ts recent monetary decisions.
Breadth and sentiment signs that we won't go much higher short term include the fact that the VIX refuses to fall much below 40 - intimating more Volatility ahead; the Advance/Decline McClellan Oscillator is at a very toppy level of 91 - 8 of the last 9 tops have led to a market decline, although with recent strength, that outlier is also the most recent; besides, the Summation Index just went up through the zero, also a positive.
The Bullish per cent has risen to a 53 level - recent toppy levels would range from 62-70% of S&P stocks on a Buy signal. Most other sentiment signals are rather tame.
Here are the numbers:
MktSentiment. 4/3/2009 Prev. Week.....5Yr.HI......LOW

DJIA ………. 8017……….7776.………..14093............6626
Nasdaq………. 1621……….1545…………2810.............1114
S&P500…….. 842……….. 815………….1561………..683
CBOE Eq. put/call ……67……….62……..…96-10/08….....46-1/03

VIX ………. 39.7…….41…….…….79..-10/08bull….10.0-7/05 bear

McClellan Osc………91…………56……………..108-1/09 bear...(-100)-10/08bull
McClelSum……….…103………-176……..…....1568-6/03.......-1514-10/08
Newsletter Surveys:
Inv.Intel -Bull:…..…31………….28.9……….…63 (12/04bear)...22.2-10/08bull
Bear:………… 38…………43.3…………… 54.4.10/08.......16-6/03
AAII-Bull/Bear ……42.7/37.1…..39.1/42.1….…..18.9/70.3 n/a
Market Vane - T-Bond..67……….66……………..91………….59
Baltic Dry Index ……1538………1678…………11700…………………663
Bullish%- …….…53………….48………….…88 -2/04bear.....2-10/08bull
*Insider corp sellers. 7:1…………6:1…. ………..97………….2.4:1 (11/08)
Mutual Fund Inflows …(103B)….(4.5B)…
ETF InflowsL……… … .3B……. 1B

www.mktsentiment.blogspot.com is a free weekly display of important contrary opinion statistics, with the disclosure that eventual fees may be paid to the author from readers clicking on the website and/or the small ad at the top of the column.

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IS THIS RALLY FAUX/REAL?: