the stock market debacle with friends and strangers and few
have heard of any way to avoid large losses in their IRAs,
401ks, and family fortunes. Since the media only focuses on
the less popular buy-and-hold (BAH) or market timing
(dangerous in normal markets), they were unfamiliar with
concept of hedging with inverse ETFs, which freeze price
action until the up market resumes. For more information
see www.proshares.com
Although many sentiment indicators are at extremes, or
coming off them, in this long term downtrend they do not
seem to give accurate signals, for now. Last week's near 20%
rally brought the CBOE put/call ratio down from 104 to 63
while the VIX also dropped to a multi-week low of 55.
CEO insider selling dropped to another new low of 2.4:1,
although selling of Finance stocks outnumbered the entire buying
group.
With the advance/decline issues on the NYSE at 3052 to 230, the
McClellan Oscillator swung from -64 to a plus 73, creating a sell
signal in force today. Also indicating oversold was the Bullish %
which swung from 8% of stocks on Buy signals, to 31.
With commercial real estate, malls, offices and condos the next
Denver boot to drop, expect more downside action.
Here are the numbers:
MktSentiment. 11/28/2008 Prev. Week.....5Yr.HI......LOW
DJIA ………. 8829…….8046………..14093............7286
Nasdaq………. 1535……1384…………2810.............1114
S&P500…….. 896……….800………….1561………..776
CBOE Eq. put/call …… 63…. ……..104…….…..96-10/08….....46-1/03
VIX ………. 55………..72.6…….…….79..-10/08bull….10.0-7/05 bear
McClellan Osc………73……………-64……………..91 -5 /04 bear...(-100)-10/08bull
McClelSum……….…-1362……….-1500.. ……..…....1568-6/03.......-1514-10/08
Newsletter Surveys:
Inv.Intel -Bull:…..…31.3………….30.9……….…63 (12/04bear)......22.2-10/08bull
Bear:………… 44.1………..43.6…..………… 54.4.10/08.......16-6/03
Baltic Dry Index ……715………..836………………………………715
AAII-Bull/Bear ………31.3/44.9….24.4/57.1…....……..n/a n/a
Public/NYSE Spec.-… 13.7nl………14.2… …….……22-10/08…………13.7
Bullish%- …….…31………….…8………….…88 -2/04bear.....2-10/08bull
*Insider corporate sellers. 2.4:1nl…. 3.3:1 …. ………..97………….2.4:1 (11/08)
Mutual Fund Inflows (7.1B)……..(3.3B)
ETF InflowsL……….4.5B………6.8B……
Money Market Inflows: .38B……..42B… … ………144B
www.mktsentiment.blogspot.com is a free weekly display of important contrary opinion statistics, with the disclosure that eventual fees may be paid to the author from readers clicking on the website and/or the small ad at the top of the column.
With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance
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