YEAR-END REBALANCE:

Now seems a good time of year to look at the Sentiment Indicators and do some rebalancing: it seems that Barron's/NYSE is charging institutional fees for some data, so the diminishing Specialist to Public shorting is going the way of the P-Coast option market makers (in favor of electronic trading); added to the list, for now, is the very high Market Vane Bullish T-Bond number, at 91, which would at some point be Bearish for Treasuries. Also noted this week, the Baltic Dry Index is repeated at 818, a suspect number possibly due to indolence.
During this holiday, low-Volume period, most extremes are coming off their highs to the mean; the McClellan Oscillator remains Bearish - still above 50; yet the Inv. Intell. bull/bear ratio remains "bearly" inverted - a Bullish sign.
Most of us are just waiting for this dismal year to end, and hope that the "Change" is for the better!

MktSentiment. 12/26/2008 Prev. Week.....5Yr.HI......LOW

DJIA ………. 8515…….8579………..14093............7286
Nasdaq………. 1530…… 1564…………2810.............1114
S&P500…….. 872……… 888………….1561………..776
CBOE Eq. put/call ……60………… 72………..…96-10/08….....46-1/03

VIX ………. 43…………46…….…….79..-10/08bull….10.0-7/05 bear

McClellan Osc………51……………58……………..91 -5 /04 bear...(-100)-10/08bull
McClelSum……….…-377………..-509……..…....1568-6/03.......-1514-10/08
Newsletter Surveys:
Inv.Intel -Bull:…..…35.1………….26.9……….…63 (12/04bear)......22.2-10/08bull
Bear:………… 38.2…………47.3……………..………… 54.4.10/08.......16-6/03
AAII-Bull/Bear ……29.0/43.6…..39.7/35.6…....……..n/a n/a
Market Vane - T-Bond..91………….91……………..91
Baltic Dry Index ……818?…………818…………………………………663
Public/NYSE Spec.-…discont. n/a (pay svc).. … …….……22-10/08…………9.5
Bullish%- …….…54…………….60……………….…88 -2/04bear.....2-10/08bull
*Insider corporate sellers. 5.4:1…..4.8:1…. ………..97………….2.4:1 (11/08)
Mutual Fund Inflows (1.3B)………(7.8B)
ETF InflowsL……….7.6B……….16.2B……
Money Market Inflows: 28B……….(2B)… … ………144B

www.mktsentiment.blogspot.com is a free weekly display of important contrary opinion statistics, with the disclosure that eventual fees may be paid to the author from readers clicking on the website and/or the small ad at the top of the column.

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance

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YEAR-END REBALANCE:

BELGIAN WAFFLE:

This just in - unemployment rises as the entire government of Belgium resigns under royal pressure over the handling of Fortis. Not a bad idea - maybe we should think about that in lieu of the mess ours has got us into, including the SEC, who, when they finally do something, such as remove the uptick rule, it's wrong.
So far, the mass majority opinion of a year-end rally has not presented itself yet (maybe the Santa Claus rally after Christmas), and sentiment is skewed to Bullish on the market (which is Bearish for the market). The McClellan Oscillator is above 50 and rising; the VIX is actually dropping as the market does, a rarity. Flipping over the zero line last week were the AAII Bulls to a majority (the Inv.Intell. are still very Bearish), and the money market outflows (from recent large inflows).
Maybe with Helicopter Ben going ALL IN with zero interest rates (didn't Japan try that a couple of decades ago?), we'll have a happy new year rally as our gov't (I'm here to help you) forces people out of money market funds and CDs into riskier investments.
Let's get this year over with, and start over!!!

MktSentiment. 12/19/2008 Prev. Week.....5Yr.HI......LOW

DJIA ………. 8579……..8629………..14093............7286
Nasdaq………. 1564…….1540…………2810.............1114
S&P500…….. 888……….879………….1561………..776
CBOE Eq. put/call …… 72…………79………..…96-10/08….....46-1/03

VIX ………. 46…………54.3…….…….79..-10/08bull….10.0-7/05 bear

McClellan Osc………58……………52……………..91 -5 /04 bear...(-100)-10/08bull
McClelSum……….…-509………..-765……..…....1568-6/03.......-1514-10/08
Newsletter Surveys:
Inv.Intel -Bull:…..…26.9…………..25.3……….…63 (12/04bear)......22.2-10/08bull
Bear:………… 47.3………….46.2…..………… 54.4.10/08.......16-6/03
Baltic Dry Index ……818………….764…………………………………663
AAII-Bull/Bear ……39.7/35.6……37.5/39.8…....……..n/a n/a
Public/NYSE Spec.-…n/a (pay svc).. 9.5nl… …….……22-10/08…………9.5
Bullish%- …….…60…………..52sell……………….…88 -2/04bear.....2-10/08bull
*Insider corporate sellers. 4.8:1…..10:1…. ………..97………….2.4:1 (11/08)
Mutual Fund Inflows (7.8B)………. (3.9B)
ETF InflowsL……….16.2B……….9.7B……
Money Market Inflows: (2B)……….32B… … ………144B

www.mktsentiment.blogspot.com is a free weekly display of important contrary opinion statistics, with the disclosure that eventual fees may be paid to the author from readers clicking on the website and/or the small ad at the top of the column.

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance

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BELGIAN WAFFLE:

CHICAGO: BRING BACK AL CAPONE!:

It seems that all the players, Republicans and Democrates, are getting their balls off the playing field before the Obamanation levels it in the coming years - legally or illegally. Money continues to flow out of stock mutual funds and into Money Market funds and Treasurys, for little or no return. 50% of foreign-owned Treas. are 3 years or less and will need to be rolled. QTD, stocks are down 22%, Treas. up 13%.
This week's Bullish readings "for" the market include a high CBOE put/call ratio, very high SDS (the S&P500 double-short ETF) Volume, and both the Baltic Dry Index (global economy proxy) and exchange short interest rose slightly, a reversal. Also, both newsletter surveys remain inverted to the Bear majority.
The downside includes the McClellan Oscillator above 50, Public to Specialist shorting at a new low, and a sell signal on the Bullish % chart (3 boxes down).
Here are the stats:
MktSentiment. 12/12/2008 Prev. Week.....5Yr.HI......LOW

DJIA ………. 8629……..8635………..14093............7286
Nasdaq………. 1540……..1509…………2810.............1114
S&P500…….. 879……….. 876………….1561………..776
CBOE Eq. put/call …… 79………….75………..…96-10/08….....46-1/03

VIX ………. 54.3………. 60…….…….79..-10/08bull….10.0-7/05 bear

McClellan Osc………52…………….64……………..91 -5 /04 bear...(-100)-10/08bull
McClelSum……….…-765………..-1089……..…....1568-6/03.......-1514-10/08
Newsletter Surveys:
Inv.Intel -Bull:…..…25.3…………….23.1……….…63 (12/04bear)......22.2-10/08bull
Bear:………… 46.2……………49.5…..………… 54.4.10/08.......16-6/03
Baltic Dry Index ……764……………663nl…………………………………663
AAII-Bull/Bear ………37.5/39.8……..31.3/44.9…....……..n/a n/a
Public/NYSE Spec.-… 9.5nl……….. 13.0nl… …….……22-10/08…………9.5
Bullish%- …….…52sell…………..31………….…88 -2/04bear.....2-10/08bull
*Insider corporate sellers. 10:1……4:1…. ………..97………….2.4:1 (11/08)
Mutual Fund Inflows (3.9B)……….(2.5B)
ETF InflowsL……….9.7B…………2.8B……
Money Market Inflows: 32B……….28B… … ………144B

www.mktsentiment.blogspot.com is a free weekly display of important contrary opinion statistics, with the disclosure that eventual fees may be paid to the author from readers clicking on the website and/or the small ad at the top of the column.

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance

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CHICAGO: BRING BACK AL CAPONE!:

BULL**** PER CENT?:

The usually reliable Bullish per cent Pt.& Fig. indicator, which uses the material 1-point, 3-Box reversal for its trend changes, falls victim to the record Volatility of this market the past 3 months. It has, however, kept one in the trend, and hopefully will predict, by using a 45-degree down trending tops line, showing us a downside reversal at @46% (it is currently at 36%-Buy).
After a 100-pt. SPX rally in December, despite the money thrown at ubiquitous financial problems, it should be getting tired even in a year-end rally.
Although the newsletter surveys, through gloomy Wednesday, are tremendously bullish for the market, the McClellan Oscillator at 64 calls for overbought selling, and the Baltic Dry Index of global shipping hits another new low causing huge discount cuts accross Europe. Public to NY Specialist shorting hit another new low last week at 13:1.
Here are the stats:

MktSentiment. 12/05/08 Prev. Week.....5Yr.HI......LOW

DJIA ………. 8635…….. 8829………..14093............7286
Nasdaq………. 1509…..…1535…………2810.............1114
S&P500…….. 876……….896………….1561………..776
CBOE Eq. put/call …… 75………….63………..…96-10/08….....46-1/03

VIX ………. 60…………55…….…….79..-10/08bull….10.0-7/05 bear

McClellan Osc………64…………….73……………..91 -5 /04 bear...(-100)-10/08bull
McClelSum……….…-1089……….-1362……..…....1568-6/03.......-1514-10/08
Newsletter Surveys:
Inv.Intel -Bull:…..…23.1…………..31.3……….…63 (12/04bear)......22.2-10/08bull
Bear:………… 49.5………….44.1…..………… 54.4.10/08.......16-6/03
Baltic Dry Index ……663nl…….715…………………………………................663
AAII-Bull/Bear ………31.3/44.9….24.4/57.1…....……..n/a n/a
Public/NYSE Spec.-… 13.0nl……… 13.7nl… …….……22-10/08…………13.0
Bullish%- …….…31………….…8………….…88 -2/04bear.....2-10/08bull
*Insider corporate sellers. 4.0…… 2.4:1nl…. ………..97………….2.4:1 (11/08)
Mutual Fund Inflows (2.5B)……….(7.1B)
ETF InflowsL……….2.8B………….4.5B……
Money Market Inflows: 28B………...38B… … ………144B

www.mktsentiment.blogspot.com is a free weekly display of important contrary opinion statistics, with the disclosure that eventual fees may be paid to the author from readers clicking on the website and/or the small ad at the top of the column.

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance

Subscribe in a reader

BULL**** PER CENT?:

HEDGES MAKE GOOD NEIGHBORS:

In my recent travels I've had many opportunities to discuss
the stock market debacle with friends and strangers and few
have heard of any way to avoid large losses in their IRAs,
401ks, and family fortunes. Since the media only focuses on
the less popular buy-and-hold (BAH) or market timing
(dangerous in normal markets), they were unfamiliar with
concept of hedging with inverse ETFs, which freeze price
action until the up market resumes. For more information
see www.proshares.com
Although many sentiment indicators are at extremes, or
coming off them, in this long term downtrend they do not
seem to give accurate signals, for now. Last week's near 20%
rally brought the CBOE put/call ratio down from 104 to 63
while the VIX also dropped to a multi-week low of 55.
CEO insider selling dropped to another new low of 2.4:1,
although selling of Finance stocks outnumbered the entire buying
group.
With the advance/decline issues on the NYSE at 3052 to 230, the
McClellan Oscillator swung from -64 to a plus 73, creating a sell
signal in force today. Also indicating oversold was the Bullish %
which swung from 8% of stocks on Buy signals, to 31.
With commercial real estate, malls, offices and condos the next
Denver boot to drop, expect more downside action.
Here are the numbers:

MktSentiment. 11/28/2008 Prev. Week.....5Yr.HI......LOW

DJIA ………. 8829…….8046………..14093............7286
Nasdaq………. 1535……1384…………2810.............1114
S&P500…….. 896……….800………….1561………..776
CBOE Eq. put/call …… 63…. ……..104…….…..96-10/08….....46-1/03

VIX ………. 55………..72.6…….…….79..-10/08bull….10.0-7/05 bear

McClellan Osc………73……………-64……………..91 -5 /04 bear...(-100)-10/08bull
McClelSum……….…-1362……….-1500.. ……..…....1568-6/03.......-1514-10/08
Newsletter Surveys:
Inv.Intel -Bull:…..…31.3………….30.9……….…63 (12/04bear)......22.2-10/08bull
Bear:………… 44.1………..43.6…..………… 54.4.10/08.......16-6/03
Baltic Dry Index ……715………..836………………………………715
AAII-Bull/Bear ………31.3/44.9….24.4/57.1…....……..n/a n/a
Public/NYSE Spec.-… 13.7nl………14.2… …….……22-10/08…………13.7
Bullish%- …….…31………….…8………….…88 -2/04bear.....2-10/08bull
*Insider corporate sellers. 2.4:1nl…. 3.3:1 …. ………..97………….2.4:1 (11/08)
Mutual Fund Inflows (7.1B)……..(3.3B)
ETF InflowsL……….4.5B………6.8B……
Money Market Inflows: .38B……..42B… … ………144B

www.mktsentiment.blogspot.com is a free weekly display of important contrary opinion statistics, with the disclosure that eventual fees may be paid to the author from readers clicking on the website and/or the small ad at the top of the column.

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance

Subscribe in a reader

HEDGES MAKE GOOD NEIGHBORS: