So far Volume is not showing this huge potential, and the public is racing for the Money Market Funds ($36B last week), which is also bullish. Of the other sentiment indicators, Insider Sales by CEOs, et.al., is still low, at 9:1; the U. of Michigan Confidence number was at a 16-year low of 69%; both IBD and Bullish per cent are on BUY signals; public shorting vs. specialists is high, and the Inv.Intell. survey is still inverted, although the AAII reverted back to a Bull plurality.
I have added a couple of new indicators, which I am testing - bi-weekly short interest on the exchanges, and the weekly Volume on the SDS, which is the double-strength shorting of the S&P500 (replacing the old Rydex Ursa/Nova stat which went away).
MktSentiment. 3/28/2008 Last Week..... .5Yr.HI...... LOW
DJIA ………. 12216………12361………..14093..............7286
Nasdaq………. 2261……….2258…………2810.............1114
S&P500…….. 1315……….1329…………1561………..776
CBOE Eq. put/call …76………….94……………..92-1/08…..........46-1/03
VIX ………. 25.7………..26.6…….…….44.. 9/02 bu........10.0-7/05 br
Intrade.com-
Recession% 70………….76……………76(bullish)….31(bearish)
McClellan Osc………0………….-7……………91-5/04 br......(81)-5/04bu
McClelSum………-511…………-627…………..1568-6/03.......-917
Newsletter Surveys:
Inv.Intel -Bull:…..…36.7………30.9………..62.9-12/04br......35-6/06bu
Bear:………… 41.1………44.7………… 38.2-3/03.......16-6/03
AAII-Bull/Bear ……41.6/33.6……25.2/54.3……..n/a n/a
MarketVane Bulls…48………….46…………. 74br..............24bu
IBD: Short Interest- 9.73……….9.35……………10.3………. 4.0
Public/NYSE Spec.-…15.5………8.74……….21bl…………..1.0br
Birinyi Blogger
Bull/Bear Poll ………50/25…….50/25
Bullish%- …………40……….32buy……….…88 -2/04br.....19bu
*Insider corporate sellers.9:1……6:1………..97…………..5
Sectors: Most Buyers: Healthcare (1/2 of total sector buys)
Most Sellers: Technology
With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance
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