Monday, March 31, 2008

BUY/BYE:

The vast preponderance of sentiment points to Bullish FOR the market (Bearish ON the market) - Bob Brinker, one of the brighter lights in the room, says his 60-day put/call ratio says BUY; Richard Arms has a new predictor - a market Volatility MA -which is showing a 5-year high (since 2003's bottom); Barron's opines that the commodity market is 30% overblown due to speculators, investment and index funds , while commercial hedgers -the so-called smart money- is going the other way. If money comes out of commodities, and also low-paying Treasuries (now that the Fed is "guaranteeing" other debt), added to the $4T in money market funds, this market could scream to the upside at some point, especially with record short interest in both listed and OTC exchanges.
So far Volume is not showing this huge potential, and the public is racing for the Money Market Funds ($36B last week), which is also bullish. Of the other sentiment indicators, Insider Sales by CEOs, et.al., is still low, at 9:1; the U. of Michigan Confidence number was at a 16-year low of 69%; both IBD and Bullish per cent are on BUY signals; public shorting vs. specialists is high, and the Inv.Intell. survey is still inverted, although the AAII reverted back to a Bull plurality.
I have added a couple of new indicators, which I am testing - bi-weekly short interest on the exchanges, and the weekly Volume on the SDS, which is the double-strength shorting of the S&P500 (replacing the old Rydex Ursa/Nova stat which went away).

MktSentiment. 3/28/2008 Last Week..... .5Yr.HI...... LOW

DJIA ………. 12216………12361………..14093..............7286
Nasdaq………. 2261……….2258…………2810.............1114
S&P500…….. 1315……….1329…………1561………..776
CBOE Eq. put/call …76………….94……………..92-1/08…..........46-1/03

VIX ………. 25.7………..26.6…….…….44.. 9/02 bu........10.0-7/05 br
Intrade.com-
Recession% 70………….76……………76(bullish)….31(bearish)
McClellan Osc………0………….-7……………91-5/04 br......(81)-5/04bu
McClelSum………-511…………-627…………..1568-6/03.......-917

Newsletter Surveys:
Inv.Intel -Bull:…..…36.7………30.9………..62.9-12/04br......35-6/06bu
Bear:………… 41.1………44.7………… 38.2-3/03.......16-6/03

AAII-Bull/Bear ……41.6/33.6……25.2/54.3……..n/a n/a
MarketVane Bulls…48………….46…………. 74br..............24bu
IBD: Short Interest- 9.73……….9.35……………10.3………. 4.0
Public/NYSE Spec.-…15.5………8.74……….21bl…………..1.0br
Birinyi Blogger
Bull/Bear Poll ………50/25…….50/25
Bullish%- …………40……….32buy……….…88 -2/04br.....19bu
*Insider corporate sellers.9:1……6:1………..97…………..5
Sectors: Most Buyers: Healthcare (1/2 of total sector buys)
Most Sellers: Technology

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance


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