BENHAWK DOWN:

Helicopter Ben is firing all his ammo this week, using huge rate cuts, cash and Treasuries. "BEARron's" has never been so outright declamatory of imminent market failure (reminiscent of Paul McRae Montgomery's contrary magazine cover indicator), and the sentiment indicators are screaming for a rally. This inevitable leverage unwinding is creating the biggest redistribution of wealth since the 1930s - something that the socialists and Islamofascists never dreamed of.
Every U.S.-traded commodity is at record highs, many at double-00 levels (Oil, gold, Yen) which could be a stop, look and listen area.
This week is packed with ugliness, with LEH,GS earnings out, the rate cut, premature option expiry (Thursday), and even March Madness basketball pools. Jeff Hirsch notes in his Traders' Almanac that when Easter comes in March (also the same week as St. Patrick's Day) , both the day before AND the day after that weekend are usually down for the markets (small sampling can be useful as warnings).
Although the preponderance of historical evidence calls for a huge rally in the Fall, we could have "A" bottom in the next few days, as short interest is huge. The previous 400+ pt. day before last week was at "THE" bottom on March 13, 2003.
Money Market Funds, now at $3.4T are below the CPI Inflation rate (3.2% and going lower, vs. 4% respectively) and waiting to redeploy.
Finally, Ned Davis Research cites the average of 10 past Recessions have market peaks 7 months before it is declared, with the market nadir 6 months into it, with the Recession lasting an average of 10 months. That would put Sept./Oct. of 2008 as the low.
The Bullishly "Screaming" indicators consist of - a CBOE put/call ratio of unheard of 94; VIX at 32; McClellan Oscillator at -56; an unheard of "inverted" Inv.Intell. Bull/Bear survey ratio of 31/43; and the Bullish Per Cent is down at 27%.

MktSentiment. 3/14/2008 Last Week..... .5Yr.HI...... LOW

DJIA ………. 11951………11893………..14093..............7286
Nasdaq………. 2212………..2212…………2810.............1114
S&P500…….. 1288………..1293…………1561………..776
CBOE Eq. put/call …94………….90……………..92-1/08…..........46-1/03

VIX ………. 31.2…………27.5…….…….44.. 9/02 bu........10.0-7/05 br
Intrade.com-
Recession% 74………….73……………75(bullish)….31(bearish)
McClellan Osc………-56………..-65……………91-5/04 br......(81)-5/04bu
McClelSum………-477…………-217…………..1568-6/03.......-917

Newsletter Surveys:
Inv.Intel -Bull:…..…31…………41.9………..62.9-12/04br......35-6/06bu
Bear:………… 43.3………36.6………… 38.2-3/03.......16-6/03

AAII-Bull/Bear ……20.4/59.2…..22/51.7……..n/a n/a
MarketVane Bulls…43…………..42…………. 74br..............24bu
IBD: Short Interest- …9.7………10.1……………10.3………. 4.0
Public/NYSE Spec.-…10…………12.7……….21bl…………..1.0br
Birinyi Blogger
Bull/Bear Poll ………26/53……..38/43
Bullish%- …………27……….28sell……….…88 -2/04br.....19bu
*Insider corporate sellers.5:1……….13:1………..97…………..5
Sectors: Most Buyers: Finance
Most Sellers: Energy

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BENHAWK DOWN: