Monday, February 25, 2008

A WARM WELCOME:

to all the folks who 1) requested the matrix of 4-year highs and lows on the Sentiment Indicators, and, 2) requested to be added to the Monday e-mail alert list. I was pleasantly gratified to receive such a number from all over the world - England, Argentina, Spain, etc. -interested in U.S.markets.
Concurrent with a week of sideways market action, the indicators were quite benign, slightly receding from any extreme readings. Short interest rose 4.8% on the NYSE, which I take as Bearish ( the multi-year high was 10 on January 4, the start of a cascading downmove to start this year). This is the opposite of Public to NYSE Specialist shorting, which is Bullish.
The McClellan Oscillator is dead neutral, with the Summation Index (cumulative Oscillator readings) also near zero.
ETF outflows into Money Market funds have been steady for over a month, which bodes for a rising market down the line, as does the high expectation of a Recession. In the 10 declared Recessions since 1949, all have seen markets rise double-digits 6 months after the low.
Finally, the Insider selling to buying jumped 50% to 18:1, and Nasdaq to NYSE Volume was 170% -both short term Bearish.
Here are the numbers:
MktSentiment. 2/22/2008 Last Week..... .5Yr.HI...... LOW

DJIA ………. 12381………12348………..14093..............7286
Nasdaq………. 2303………..2321…………2810.............1114
S&P500…….. 1353……….1350…………1561………..776
CBOE Eq. put/call …72………….75……………..92-1/08…..........46-1/03

VIX ………. 24.0………..25.0…….…….44.. 9/02 bu........10.0-7/05 br
Intrade.com-
Recession% 65…………64……………75(bullish)….31(bearish)
McClellan Osc…………1…………..-3……………91-5/04 br......(81)-5/04bu
McClelSum………-65…………..-76…………..1568-6/03.......-917

Newsletter Surveys:
Inv.Intel -Bull:…..…41.6…………36.7………..62.9-12/04br......35-6/06bu
Bear:………… 33.7…………35.6………… 38.2-3/03.......16-6/03

AAII-Bull/Bear ……33.2/44.7…….33.3/41.9……..n/a n/a
MarketVane Bulls…45……………44…………. 74br..............24bu
UBS investor confidence..50 ………44nl -monthly
(monthly change)
IBD: Short Interest- …8.88…………7.93……………10………. 4.0
Public/NYSE Spec.-…10.5…………..13.2……….1.0br
Birinyi Blogger
Bull/Bear Poll ………33.3/33.3…….55.5/25.9
Bullish%- …………34…………...32……….…88 -2/04br.....19bu
*Insider corporate sellers..18……….12………..97…………..5
Sectors: Most Buyers: Finance (1/2 of all Sectors)
Most Sellers: Technology (1/3 of all Sectors)

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance


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