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Since there is no market open today to distract, I have put together a matrix of the most effective indicators for market tops and bottoms over the past 4 years, along with their optimal levels. This Excel spreadsheet will not transfer very well to the Blogger.com format, so if the reader would like to receive this document, and/or be added (FREE) to my e-mail distrubution alert list each Monday, please e-mail: leonbrnt@aol.com.
One less popular indicator I noticed this week was the NYSE to Nasdaq Volume number - quite useful during the '90s Tech boom of speculation, it gave a maximum (184) SELL signal in the week of Oct.26, 2007, when the DJIA was at 14,093. The 3-year low of 10,215 occurred 4 weeks after the ratio low of 79 on Oct. 16/05. Per IBD, the 1-year low was Aug.17 of '07 with the DJIA at 13,079. It is now midway at 148.
Conversely, the Birinyi blogger Bull/Bear sentiment is not showing much correlation either way ( contrary or non) so is circling my drain as an indicator.
Most noticable last week was the Inv.Intell. survey reaching parity for the first time in recent memory - 36/35. Most others have backed off a bit, but still bullish FOR the market , if it can break through Resistance.
Elliotticians out there may have noticed a clear 5-3-5 down wave from the all time highs of October into a sideways corrective range, which, in the larger iteration could be the 4th wave symmetrical triangle into an ugly decline, if the SPX can break the current Support levels.
Here are the numbers:
MktSentiment. 2/15/2008 Last Week..... .5Yr.HI...... LOW

DJIA ………. 12348………12182………..14093..............7286
Nasdaq………. 2321………..2304…………2810.............1114
S&P500…….. 1350………..1331…………1561………..776
CBOE Eq. put/call …75………….82……………..92-1/08…..........46-1/03

VIX ………. 25.0………..28…….…….44.. 9/02 bu........10.0-7/05 br
Intrade.com-
Recession% 64………….67……………75(bullish)….31(bearish)
McClel Osc…………-3………….7……………91-5/04 br......(81)-5/04bu
McClelSum………-76………….-142…………..1568-6/03.......-917

Newsletter Surveys:
Inv.Intel -Bull:…..…36.7…………41.6………..62.9-12/04br......35-6/06bu
Bear:………… 35.6…………32.6………… 38.2-3/03.......16-6/03

AAII-Bull/Bear ……33.3/41.9…….34.1/47.2……..n/a n/a
MarketVane Bulls…44……………44…………. 74br..............24bu
UBS investor confidence..50 ………44nl -monthly
(monthly change)
IBD: Short Interest- …7.93…………7.89……………10………. 4.0
Public/NYSE Spec.-…13.2………….21nh…………21bu……….1.0br
Birinyi Blogger
Bull/Bear Poll ………55.5/25.9……27.2/40.9
Bullish%- …………..32…………30sell……….…88 -2/04br.....19bu
*Insider corporate sellers..12……….7………..97…………..5
Sectors: Most Buyers: Energy
Most Sellers: Healthcare

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