A WARM WELCOME:

to all the folks who 1) requested the matrix of 4-year highs and lows on the Sentiment Indicators, and, 2) requested to be added to the Monday e-mail alert list. I was pleasantly gratified to receive such a number from all over the world - England, Argentina, Spain, etc. -interested in U.S.markets.
Concurrent with a week of sideways market action, the indicators were quite benign, slightly receding from any extreme readings. Short interest rose 4.8% on the NYSE, which I take as Bearish ( the multi-year high was 10 on January 4, the start of a cascading downmove to start this year). This is the opposite of Public to NYSE Specialist shorting, which is Bullish.
The McClellan Oscillator is dead neutral, with the Summation Index (cumulative Oscillator readings) also near zero.
ETF outflows into Money Market funds have been steady for over a month, which bodes for a rising market down the line, as does the high expectation of a Recession. In the 10 declared Recessions since 1949, all have seen markets rise double-digits 6 months after the low.
Finally, the Insider selling to buying jumped 50% to 18:1, and Nasdaq to NYSE Volume was 170% -both short term Bearish.
Here are the numbers:
MktSentiment. 2/22/2008 Last Week..... .5Yr.HI...... LOW

DJIA ………. 12381………12348………..14093..............7286
Nasdaq………. 2303………..2321…………2810.............1114
S&P500…….. 1353……….1350…………1561………..776
CBOE Eq. put/call …72………….75……………..92-1/08…..........46-1/03

VIX ………. 24.0………..25.0…….…….44.. 9/02 bu........10.0-7/05 br
Intrade.com-
Recession% 65…………64……………75(bullish)….31(bearish)
McClellan Osc…………1…………..-3……………91-5/04 br......(81)-5/04bu
McClelSum………-65…………..-76…………..1568-6/03.......-917

Newsletter Surveys:
Inv.Intel -Bull:…..…41.6…………36.7………..62.9-12/04br......35-6/06bu
Bear:………… 33.7…………35.6………… 38.2-3/03.......16-6/03

AAII-Bull/Bear ……33.2/44.7…….33.3/41.9……..n/a n/a
MarketVane Bulls…45……………44…………. 74br..............24bu
UBS investor confidence..50 ………44nl -monthly
(monthly change)
IBD: Short Interest- …8.88…………7.93……………10………. 4.0
Public/NYSE Spec.-…10.5…………..13.2……….1.0br
Birinyi Blogger
Bull/Bear Poll ………33.3/33.3…….55.5/25.9
Bullish%- …………34…………...32……….…88 -2/04br.....19bu
*Insider corporate sellers..18……….12………..97…………..5
Sectors: Most Buyers: Finance (1/2 of all Sectors)
Most Sellers: Technology (1/3 of all Sectors)

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance

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A WARM WELCOME:

BONUS HOLIDAY ISSUE:

Since there is no market open today to distract, I have put together a matrix of the most effective indicators for market tops and bottoms over the past 4 years, along with their optimal levels. This Excel spreadsheet will not transfer very well to the Blogger.com format, so if the reader would like to receive this document, and/or be added (FREE) to my e-mail distrubution alert list each Monday, please e-mail: leonbrnt@aol.com.
One less popular indicator I noticed this week was the NYSE to Nasdaq Volume number - quite useful during the '90s Tech boom of speculation, it gave a maximum (184) SELL signal in the week of Oct.26, 2007, when the DJIA was at 14,093. The 3-year low of 10,215 occurred 4 weeks after the ratio low of 79 on Oct. 16/05. Per IBD, the 1-year low was Aug.17 of '07 with the DJIA at 13,079. It is now midway at 148.
Conversely, the Birinyi blogger Bull/Bear sentiment is not showing much correlation either way ( contrary or non) so is circling my drain as an indicator.
Most noticable last week was the Inv.Intell. survey reaching parity for the first time in recent memory - 36/35. Most others have backed off a bit, but still bullish FOR the market , if it can break through Resistance.
Elliotticians out there may have noticed a clear 5-3-5 down wave from the all time highs of October into a sideways corrective range, which, in the larger iteration could be the 4th wave symmetrical triangle into an ugly decline, if the SPX can break the current Support levels.
Here are the numbers:
MktSentiment. 2/15/2008 Last Week..... .5Yr.HI...... LOW

DJIA ………. 12348………12182………..14093..............7286
Nasdaq………. 2321………..2304…………2810.............1114
S&P500…….. 1350………..1331…………1561………..776
CBOE Eq. put/call …75………….82……………..92-1/08…..........46-1/03

VIX ………. 25.0………..28…….…….44.. 9/02 bu........10.0-7/05 br
Intrade.com-
Recession% 64………….67……………75(bullish)….31(bearish)
McClel Osc…………-3………….7……………91-5/04 br......(81)-5/04bu
McClelSum………-76………….-142…………..1568-6/03.......-917

Newsletter Surveys:
Inv.Intel -Bull:…..…36.7…………41.6………..62.9-12/04br......35-6/06bu
Bear:………… 35.6…………32.6………… 38.2-3/03.......16-6/03

AAII-Bull/Bear ……33.3/41.9…….34.1/47.2……..n/a n/a
MarketVane Bulls…44……………44…………. 74br..............24bu
UBS investor confidence..50 ………44nl -monthly
(monthly change)
IBD: Short Interest- …7.93…………7.89……………10………. 4.0
Public/NYSE Spec.-…13.2………….21nh…………21bu……….1.0br
Birinyi Blogger
Bull/Bear Poll ………55.5/25.9……27.2/40.9
Bullish%- …………..32…………30sell……….…88 -2/04br.....19bu
*Insider corporate sellers..12……….7………..97…………..5
Sectors: Most Buyers: Energy
Most Sellers: Healthcare

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance

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BONUS HOLIDAY ISSUE:

SELLERS' FATIGUE/BUYERS' REMORSE:

After an ugly week in the markets, both sides seem to be taking a TimeOut, at quasi-support levels of 12,090 in the DJIA and 1280-95 on the SPX, going back to the Spring and Fall readings of '06. Especially oversold are the techs and Nasdaq, after reaching the Bear mark of a 20% decline, as Cisco bounced up despite bad news.
Echoing an oversold moment are the CBOE put/call ratio of a very high 82 (puts per calls), Public shorting versus Specialists (21), and a VIX of 28 - at least in the very short term.
Farther out, the Bullish Per Cent reversed its Bullish call and dropped 3 Pt.& Fig. boxes (2 pts. each for a 6% significance) , which is a Sell signal; although at 30 it is still in a low area.
Surveys are still far from complacent, and Money Market Funds enjoyed a 47B inflow last week.

Here are the numbers:

MktSentiment. 2/8/2008 Last Week..... .5Yr.HI...... LOW

DJIA ………. 12182………12743………..14093..............7286
Nasdaq………. 2304………..2413…………2810.............1114
S&P500…….. 1331………..1395…………1561………..776
CBOE Eq. put/call …82………….63……………..92-1/08…..........46-1/03

VIX ………. 28…………..24…….…….44.. 9/02 bu........10.0-7/05 br
Intrade.com-
Recession% 67………….69……………75(bullish)….31(bearish)
McClel Osc…………7…………..79……………91-5/04 br......(81)-5/04bu
McClelSum………-142…………-255…………..1568-6/03.......-917

Newsletter Surveys:
Inv.Intel -Bull:…..…41.6…………40.2………..62.9-12/04br......35-6/06bu
Bear:………… 32.6…………32.2………… 38.2-3/03.......16-6/03

AAII-Bull/Bear ……34.1/47.2……..30.1/48.9……..n/a n/a
MarketVane Bulls…44…………….46…………. 74br..............24bu
UBS investor confidence..50 ………44nl -monthly
(monthly change)
IBD: Short Interest- …7.89……….8.39……………10………. 4.0
Public/NYSE Spec.-…21nh………….16.26…………21bu……….1.0br
Birinyi Blogger
Bull/Bear Poll ………55.5/25.9……27.2/40.9
Bullish%- …………..30sell………36……….…88 -2/04br.....19bu
*Insider corporate sellers..7…………5………..97…………..5
Sectors: Most Buyers: Undesignated (?), Consumer Svcs.
Most Sellers: Tech, Finance

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance

Subscribe in a reader

SELLERS' FATIGUE/BUYERS' REMORSE:

BEAR TRAP?:

URSUS HORRIBILIS of 2000 had 16 of them, usually lasting a month and ranging 5% (the one last week was 5 to 6%), according to the recent Barron's. Today's overbought decline was not entirely unexpected , considering light Resistance and a McClellan Oscillator reading of 79, up from zero a week ago.
There is still a potential for upside momentum ahead, considering the hugely oversold nature of the indicators such as Bullish Per Cent, now only at 36; surveys still far from complacent - as are put buying and shorting. Corporate insider selling is at a new low of 4.8%, with nearly 1/2 the buyers in Finance stocks.
Below are the numbers:

MktSentiment. 2/1/2008 Last Week..... .5Yr.HI...... LOW

DJIA ………. 12743………12207………..14093..............7286
Nasdaq………. 2413………..2326…………2810.............1114
S&P500…….. 1395………..1330…………1561………..776
CBOE Eq. put/call …63………….68……………..92-1/08…..........46-1/03

VIX ………. 24………….29…….…….44.. 9/02 bu........10.0-7/05 br
Intrade.com-
Recession% 69…………..68……………75(bullish)….31(bearish)
McClel Osc…………79…………..0……………91-5/04 br......(81)-5/04bu
McClelSum………-255…………-500…………..1568-6/03.......-917

Newsletter Surveys:
Inv.Intel -Bull:…..…40.2…………41.6………..62.9-12/04br......35-6/06bu
Bear:………… 32.2…………31.5………… 38.2-3/03.......16-6/03

AAII-Bull/Bear ……30.1/48.9……..25.1/59……..n/a n/a
MarketVane Bulls…46……………40…………. 74br..............24bu
UBS investor confidence..50 ………44nl -monthly
(monthly change)
IBD: Short Interest- …8.39………..8.87……………10………. 4.0
Public/NYSE Spec.-…16.26……….19.88…………19.88bu……….1.0br
Birinyi Blogger
Bull/Bear Poll ………27.2/40.9……24/44
Bullish%- …………..36………..25……….…88 -2/04br.....19bu
*Insider corporate sellers..5……….7………..97…………..5
Sectors: Most Buyers: Finance (1/2 total)
Most Sellers: Tech

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance

Subscribe in a reader

BEAR TRAP?: