Sentiment improved slightly over the past period, but, like oscillators, oversold readings can be difficult to time. Although we have not yet had the "capitulation" of bulls, as measured by the VIX, Volume in a Selling Climax, Blood in the Streets headlines, etc., there some very extreme levels being reached:
The CBOE Equity put/call ratio hit a high of 92 last week.
Bullish Per Cent hit a new low of stocks on a Buy signal - 12%
McClellan Oscillator hit its recent envelope low of 43, although both it and its concomitant Summation Index,now only -451, have been much lower.
The VIX, now 27, could re-reach the high 30s again.
A new indicator, odds of a Recession in '08, which is Bullish when high, hit a new high of 75.
Here are the numbers:
Mktsentiment. 1/18/2008 Last Week..... .5Yr.HI...... LOW
DJIA ………. 12099……….12606………..14093..............7286
Nasdaq………. 2340…………2439…………2810.............1114
S&P500…….. 1325………..1401…………1561………..776
CBOE Eq. put/call …92…………78……………..92-1/08…..........46-1/03
VIX ………. 27.2…….…..23.6…….…….44.. 9/02 bu........10.0-7/05 br
Intrade.com-
Recession% 75nh…………63……………75(bullish)….31(bearish)
All Equities (ETF)
McClel Osc…………-44…………..-2……………91-5/04 br......(81)-5/04bu
McClelSum………-451…………..-357…………..1568-6/03.......-917
Newsletter Surveys:
Inv.Intel -Bull:…..…45.6…………48.8………..62.9-12/04br......35-6/06bu
Bear:………… 26.7…………25.8………… 38.2-3/03.......16-6/03
AAII-Bull/Bear ……24.3/54.4…….19.6/58.9……..n/a n/a
MarketVane Bulls…47…………….48…………. 74br..............24bu
UBS investor confidence..50 ………44nl -monthly
(monthly change)
IBD: Short Interest- …8.6………..9.43………. 4.0
Public/NYSE Spec.-…12………….14.6…………18.25bu……….1.0br
Birinyi Blogger
Bull/Bear Poll ………48/43..………45/41
Bullish%- ………12nl…………..31nl……….…88 -2/04br.....12bu
*Insider corporate sellers..6………….8………..97…………..6
Sectors: Most Buyers: Consumer Svc.
Most Sellers: Healthcare
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