DON'T BEARS HIBERNATE IN WINTER?:

When President Bush says the Economy is "stable" does he mean it is where they keep the horses? Intrade.com, the odds-betting website, puts Recession odds at a recent high of 64, which, contrarily, is Bullish for the stock market. As the Chinese symbol (and veteran market pundits) indicate, Crisis also means Opportunity!
Fundamentals indicate a similarity to 1929 (worst 3 market days since then), 1987, and the Japanese meltdown: Record high Oil, Gold, Grains. Farmland has peaked and is dropping. Financials are in leverage trouble, and there was an "Echo" crash @ 6 years after the big one - 1937, 1980, 1994. The dollar was falling due to budget and trade deficits. Market breadth was and is terrible, both A/D and New Highs.
Although optimists point out that there is just under $1T in SWFs (soveriegn wealth funds), the questions remain - do they want to put there money here, or in emerging and developing markets; do they want real estate or stocks, and do we want Communist China and Muslim Mid-East to take even minor stakes in our companies?
Fortunately, on the Sentiment side, there are Bullish signs - Bearish ON the market, Bullish FOR the market:
The CBOE put/call ratio of 68 is quite high; surveys show higher Bear numbers -55% for AAII; Public to "remaining" Specialists' shorting and short interest are at record or near record highs. CEO legal insider selling is low, at 7 last week, and unsmart money (Mutual Funds) continue to show outflows, into money market funds.
Finally, old reliable Bullish per cent is at 38%, a buying area (although it remains on a sell signal).
Here are the numbers:
Mktsentiment. 1/04/2008 Last Week..... .5Yr.HI...... LOW

DJIA ………. 12800………..13366………..14093..............7286
Nasdaq………. 2504………….2674…………2810.............1114
S&P500…….. 1411…………1478…………1561………..776
CBOE Eq. put/call …68…………..62……………91-8/07…..........46-1/03

VIX ………. 23.9…………20.7…….…….44.. 9/02 bu........10.0-7/05 br
Intrade.com-
Recession% 64nh………….48……………64(bullish)….31(bearish)
All Equities (ETF)
McClel Osc…………-23……………5……………91-5/04 br......(81)-5/04bu
McClelSum………-336…………….-313…………..1568-6/03.......-917

Newsletter Surveys:
Inv.Intel -Bull:…..…52.2………….54.9………..62.9-12/04br......35-6/06bu
Bear:………… 24.5…………23.1………… 38.2-3/03.......16-6/03

AAII-Bull/Bear ……25.7/55.2……..30/50……..n/a n/a
MarketVane Bulls…55…………….n/a…………. 74br..............24bu
UBS investor confidence..50 ………44nl -monthly
(monthly change)
IBD: Short Interest- …10.0nh…….9.86nh….……9.86………. 4.0
Public/NYSE Spec.-…12.1………..10.4…………18.25bu……….1.0br
Birinyi Blogger
Bull/Bear Poll ………45/41………48/30
Bullish%- ………38……………46……….…88 -2/04br.....36bu
*Insider corporate sellers.7………..15:1………..97…………..6
Sectors: Most Buyers: Healthcare, Finance (50% of total)
Most Sellers: Tech, Healthcare (50%)

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DON'T BEARS HIBERNATE IN WINTER?: