Monday, November 5, 2007

TRADING PLACES:

Despite being in the most volatile time of year (September-October) we seem to be stuck in a trading range bounded by less than 1,000 points on the DJIA. Most Sentiment Indicators seem to be stuck in midrange, and the extremes fluctuate at both ends.
Money Markets went from record Inflows of $36B the prior week to $33B record Outflows last week. ETFs saw a rather high level of $8B Inflows after weeks of selling. Insider trading by CEOs, VPs, et.al. was quite concentrated with 2/3 of total Buying in 1 of the 10 Sectors - Finance; meanwhile 1/3 of Selling was in Tech - both the opposite of Conventional Wisdom, and pundit prattling. Selling outdid Buying 26:1, up from 13:1.
Here are last weeks findings:

Mktsentiment. 11/2/2007 Last Week..... .5Yr.HI...... LOW

DJIA ………. 13595………..13806………..14093..............7286
Nasdaq………. 2810………….2805……….. 2810.............1114
S&P500…….. 1509…………1535…………1561………..776
CBOE Eq. put/call …63……………66……………91…..........46-1/03

VIX ………. 23……………22.9…………….44.. 9/02........10.0-7/05

ISEE-call/put ……. 165…………..246……………246………..118
All Equities (ETF)
McClel Osc…………-24………….-2………91-5/04.........(81)-5/04
McClelSum………112…………….280…………..1568-6/03.......(917)

Newsletter Surveys:
Inv.Intel -Bull:…..…. 53.8………..56.5………..62.9-12/04......35-6/06
Bear:………….... 23.1…………22.9………… 38.2-3/03.......16-6/03

AAII-Bull/Bear …...…44.7/36.5…….31.3/48.2……..n/a n/a
MarketVane Bulls….......64…………..63…………. 74..............24
UBS investor confidence..70………70 ………178……………53
(monthly change)
IBD: Short Interest- …8.63………8.56….……8.95………. 4.0
Public/NYSE Spec.-..…8.31……….6.96 …..……18.25……….1.0
Birinyi Blogger
Bull/Bear Poll …….....…44.8/37.9….44/42
Bullish%- ……........…54………….62……….…88 -2/04...... 46-8/04
*Insider corporate sellers..26:1….13:1
Sectors: Most Buyers: Finance (2/3 of total 10- sectors)
Most Sellers: Tech (1/3 of total)

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance


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