AND THE HITS JUST KEEP ON COMING:

Monday, November 19, 2007

AND THE HITS JUST KEEP ON COMING:

An optimist would opine that the deeper this surge goes, the larger the ensuing rally. Mark Liebovit's quite reliable market model calls for a December rally, as does Helen Meisner (Street.com's technician) with 30-day MAs of both Volume and A/D lines.
Several Sentiment Indicators are also in oversold areas -but could always go lower. As the DJIA tests its August and recent lows near 13,000 (if it breaks down it confirms the Dow Theory of Transport confirmation), Bullish extremes exist in the CBOE put/call ratio (76) and the Bears of Inv.Intell. at 26.5 - AAII Bears are at 49% ; the McClellan Osc. is still below -50 with its concomitant Summation at -417; New Lows to Highs are 7:1 on the big board, public shorting is double digits, and the mutual funders (-$10B outflows) are running for the money markets.
A final sign is the legal Insider Selling at only 7:1, still in Tech and healthcare, while largest Buying is in Finance and Energy. See below:
Mktsentiment. 11/16/2007 Last Week..... .5Yr.HI...... LOW

DJIA ………. 13177……….13042………..14093..............7286
Nasdaq………. 2637…………2627…………2810.............1114
S&P500…….. 1459…………1453…………1561………..776
CBOE Eq. put/call …76……………73……………91…..........46-1/03

VIX ………. 25.5…………28.5…………….44.. 9/02........10.0-7/05

ISEE-call/put ……. 141…………156……………246………..118
All Equities (ETF)
McClel Osc…………-54…………-70……………91-5/04.........(81)-5/04
McClelSum………-417………….-155…………..1568-6/03.......(917)

Newsletter Surveys:
Inv.Intel -Bull:…..….51.1…………54.5………..62.9-12/04......35-6/06
Bear:………… 26.7…………22.2………… 38.2-3/03.......16-6/03

AAII-Bull/Bear ……33/49.5………36.2/51.4……..n/a n/a
MarketVane Bulls…58…………….63…………. 74..............24
UBS investor confidence..70………70 ………178……………53
(monthly change)
IBD: Short Interest- …8.36………8.44….……8.95………. 4.0
Public/NYSE Spec.-…10.34……..11.86…..……18.25……….1.0
Birinyi Blogger
Bull/Bear Poll ………on vaca……34.4/37.5…….
Bullish%- ………40……………54……….…88 -2/04...... 46-8/04
*Insider corporate sellers. 7:1…….13:1….
Sectors: Most Buyers: Finance, Energy
Most Sellers: Tech , Healthcare

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance