week at Alfred's steak house in San Francisco got to hear Joe Turner of
Pring/Turner Mgmt. talk about the 4-year cycle, and the current market's
position in it. He opined that despite the anomaly of both Bonds and
Commodities (inflation) rising simulataneously, we should be on the verge
of Stage VI, which is Bearish for all securities - bonds, stocks and
commodities.
While breaking to new millenium highs we are also seeing some Bearish
tones in the Indicators: the CBOE put/call at 61; AAII Bears rising 5 %
to 34.3; short interest near its highs.
On the other hand, CyberTrader reports very low mutual fund cash and
extreme margin debt, at levels similar to 2000.
At some point the lower
price of oil, great for consumers and transportation, but a dangerous
negative for inflows from our oil-supplying countries, cold trigger
Turner's bearish scenario.
Here are the numbers:
Mktsentiment. 1/12/2007......5Yr.HI........ LOW
DJIA ………. 12556nh...........12556...........7286
Nasdaq………. 2502nh............2502............1114
S&P500…….. 1430............1430............776
CBOE Equity put/call . 61.............87-5/04........46-1/03
VIX ………. 10.15.........44 9/02........10.0-11/06
ISEE-call/put ……. 154...........299-12/04.......82-4/02
(>200/Bearish)
McClel Osc.(+75/-100)……7...............91-5/04.........(81)-5/04
McClelSum.(+750/-1153nh) 692...........1568-6/03.......(726)-5/04
Newsletter Surveys:
Inv.Intel -Bull:…..…. ..55.4...........62.9-12/04......35-6/06
Bear:………… 20.7.........38.2-3/03.......16-6/03
AAII-Bull/Bear ……. 44.3/34.3.....n/a n/a
MarketVane Bulls…. 68......... 73..............24
Barron's Panic/
Euphoric Master Idx…. na........-0.24 4/06.....-0.75 11/05
Bullish%- ………74...............88 -2/04...... 46-8/04
With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance
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