thriller was Central Michigan over Mid Tennessee 31-14! Not!
Almost as many bowls as there are strategists, analysts, fund managers
and other investors who are Bullish on '07. The Conventional Wisdom is
that there is too much liquidity sloshing around, first of the year cash
inflows, much of it mandated by funds and ETFs who cannot hold cash, for the market not to continue to keep rising.
However, CrossCurrents.com says up to 50% of stock price rise is due to ETF
accumulation, not valuation. And Corporate Insiders, per Thomson
Financial, are selling at a 35:1 ratio, much over the 10:1 average
(although year-end option activity must be considered as part of the
complex equation).
As for the Indicators, notable extremes were: after several weeks Mutual
Fund inflows turned back to positive, albeit only $1B, with ETFs doubling
that.
The short term call/put ratio from ISE was the highest at 165 (read
bearish) since late April of '06.
Finally, IBD's short interest ratio of the NYSE hit a new high of 7.01 while the Investor's Intelligence % of Bears fell below 20 at 19.6 for the first time since Aug. of '05, and not
far above the 5-year low of June '03's, 16% Bears!
Here are the numbers for the last week in 2006:
Mktsentiment. 12/29/2006......5Yr.HI........ LOW
DJIA ………. 12463...........12463...........7286
Nasdaq………. 2415............2460............1114
S&P500…….. 1418............1427............776
CBOE Equity put/call . 60.............87-5/04........46-1/03
VIX ………. 11.56.........44 9/02........10.3-7/05
ISEE-call/put ……. 165...........299-12/04.......82-4/02
(>200/Bearish)
McClel Osc.(+75/-100)……-22...............91-5/04.........(81)-5/04
McClelSum.(+750/-1000) 874...........1568-6/03.......(726)-5/04
Newsletter Surveys:
Inv.Intel -Bull:…..…. ..56.5...........62.9-12/04......35-6/06
Bear:………… 19.6.........38.2-3/03.......16-6/03
AAII-Bull/Bear ……. 46/36.....n/a n/a
MarketVane Bulls…. na......... 73..............24
Barron's Panic/
Euphoric Master Idx…. -0.35........-0.24 4/06.....-0.75 11/05
Bullish%- ………77...............88 -2/04...... 46-8/04
With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance
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