SNAPBACK:

After 6 straight down closes on the SPX (S&P500) one would expect a snapback, shortcovering rally, especially with Election Day looming tomorrow. After several months of observing the Commitment of Future Traders, no correlation to the market is apparent based on the net changes of the Small Trader, the Large Speculator, or even the Commercial Hedges; therefore it is being dropped from the matrix.
Another observation - although New Highs/New Lows data is not really Sentiment, it is an important Technical measure; lately it has been huge to the upside ( 733 to 29 the prior week, 516 to 55 last week on the NYSE). Upon examination, many of the issues are either ADSs (foreign stocks) or Closed End Funds and Preferred stocks.
The only Sentiment Indiicators worthy of note last week were the McClellan Oscillator zooming down to -32 from +7 , bringing the Summation below 1,000 but still overbought; the Investor's Intelligence survey widened its spread further to 53.7 Bulls vs. 28.4 Bears a complacent difference; the AAII backed off from its Bullish stance.
Meanwhile record short interest and impending favorable months indicate the Bull is just resting, not over - although the Election results could cause a stir, and the Kinchin 4-year cycle could still kick in if funds/hedgehogs want to dump stocks.

Mktsentiment. 11/3/2006......5Yr.HI........ LOW

DJIA 11986...........11577...........7286
Nasdaq 2330............2243............1114
S&P500 1364............1325............776
CBOE Equity put/call 63.............87-5/04........46-1/03

VIX 11.1.........44 9/02........10.3-7/05

ISEE-call/put 117...........299-12/04.......82-4/02
(>200/Bearish)

McClel Osc.(+75/-100) -32...............91-5/04.........(81)-5/04
McClelSum.(+750/-1000) 929...........1568-6/03.......(726)-5/04

Newsletter Surveys:
Inv.Intel -Bull:62/28 53.7...........62.9-12/04......35-6/06
Bear:43.2/16.1--5yrs 28.4.........38.2-3/03.......16-6/03

AAII-Bull/Bear 43.8/36.9.....n/a n/a
MarketVane Bulls 73......... 73..............24

Barron's Panic/
Euphoric Master Idx -0.61........-0.24 4/06.....-0.75 11/05

Bullish%- 74...............88 -2/04...... 46-8/04

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