Monday, November 27, 2006

BLACK FRIDAY, BLACK MONDAY:

Whatever shoppers are buying it ain't stocks today! The market's uncharacteristic parabolic Fall rally has finally taken a rest - down slightly on a shortened Friday market and more on Monday, as the Dollar descends to a 20-month low.
Whether it's hedgehogs taking profits, mutual funds tax-balancing, Japan carry-trade unwinding, or even Iceland krona dumping - technicians look to the charts for price, volume, momentum shifts; and of course, sentiment excesses.
Standouts last week included the AAII survey, which went to EVEN (41.9% of both Bulls and Bears) a rara avis. At rarefied levels are both the McClellan Summation and my cum.Advance/Decline number; also extreme is the NYSE New Hi/New Lo statistic at 663 to 28. The other meaningful survey - the Investors' Intelligence - spread to another high number ranging from 58.5 Bulls to 22.3 Bears. Finally, the Bullish per cent figure of stocks on Buy signals reached just under 78, a recent high.
Despite the tremendous liquidity out there, how high is high?

Mktsentiment. 11/24/2006......5Yr.HI........ LOW

DJIA 12280...........11577...........7286
Nasdaq 2460............2243............1114
S&P500 1400............1325............776
CBOE Equity put/call 54.............87-5/04........46-1/03

VIX 10.8.........44 9/02........10.3-7/05

ISEE-call/put 106...........299-12/04.......82-4/02
(>200/Bearish)

McClel Osc.(+75/-100) 12...............91-5/04.........(81)-5/04
McClelSum.(+750/-1000) 1051...........1568-6/03.......(726)-5/04

Newsletter Surveys:
Inv.Intel -Bull:62/28 58.5...........62.9-12/04......35-6/06
Bear:43.2/16.1--5yrs 22.3.........38.2-3/03.......16-6/03

AAII-Bull/Bear 41.9/41.9.....n/a n/a
MarketVane Bulls 73......... 73..............24

Barron's Panic/
Euphoric Master Idx -0.57........-0.24 4/06.....-0.75 11/05

Bullish%- 77...............88 -2/04...... 46-8/04

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance


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