WEAK WEEK

Another weak of falling from the record close of 21,000 DJIA (30); breadth also fell - Adv/Decl and New hi's. Rising Indicators included CBOE put/call ratio, Inv.Intell. Bulls and MMF flows (into money markets bigtime).
Danger signals are margin interest and the above I.I. Bulls to Bears. Inflation via TIPS seem to be picking up as well.
Here are last week's ##s:

Date		3/24/2017	3/17/2017
Indices:	DJIA	20596	20914
	NAZ	5828	5901
	SPX	2343	2378
WklyVolume (Bshs).	naz/ny….	9.2/4.3	10.0/5.5
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish		2.14	1.82
Sentiment:	put/call-CBOE	71	66
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8		13	11.3
DeltaMSI-50%	MAC crossover	53	53
Advance/Dec-NYSE..		1186/1923	2243/868
Weekly Net:		-737	1375
Cumulative:		173883	174620
Weekly	NYSE hi/low…	218/115	305/139
New Hi's/Low's	Nasdaq h/l	300/172	372/160
McClellan	Oscillator	-9	2
McClellanSum	.+750/-1000	222	320
Newsletter	Inv.Intel -Bull	56.7	53.4
Surveys-Tues	Bear:-5yrs	17.3	17.5
Wed.	AAII  -Bull	35.3	31.2
	Bear	30.5	38.7
US$-WSJ		99.8	100.3
3-box rev	Bullish%-	75	76
US equity -ICI	Fund Flows	WeekLate	9.0B
MMF flows	Change in $B	(23.3B)	(11.7B)
MargDebt- top (300M)	monthly	513Bnh	Jan.
10-yr Tsy yield	hi= stock buying	2.4	2.5
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation		1.25	1.33
TIP (ETF)	Inflation	114.4	113.7

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance

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WEAK WEEK

Wearin' Of The Green

Stocks were basically green (UP), at least for the start of last week, only to sustain a slight hangover into the weekend.  Breadth did a major turnaround, from negative to positive; the McClellan Oscillator jumped from minus 61 to plus two. Still worrisome are the Bulls to Bears ( Inv. Intell.) and record margin interest, which could cost more as rates rise. Contrary to conventional wisdom, stocks to not fall as interest rates rise, at least at first - when they normalize, bond rates become competitive, especially when they overshoot, as they are wont to do.
Here are the numbers:

Date		3/17/2017	3/10/2017
Indices:	DJIA	20914	20902
	NAZ	5901	5861
	SPX	2378	2372
WklyVolume (Bshs).	naz/ny….	10.0/5.5	9.2/4.2
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish		1.82	2.19
Sentiment:	put/call-CBOE	66	62
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8		11.3	11.7
DeltaMSI-50%	MAC crossover	53	58.5
Advance/Dec-NYSE..		2243/868	678/2426
Weekly Net:		1375	-1748
Cumulative:		174620	173245
Weekly	NYSE hi/low…	305/139	162/169
New Hi's/Low's	Nasdaq h/l	372/160	236/166
McClellan	Oscillator	2	-61
McClellanSum	.+750/-1000	320	440
Newsletter	Inv.Intel -Bull	53.4	57.7
Surveys-Tues	Bear:-5yrs	17.5	17.3
Wed.	AAII  -Bull	31.2	30
	Bear	38.7	46.5
US$-WSJ		100.3	101.4
3-box rev	Bullish%-	76	76
US equity -ICI	Fund Flows	WeekLate	4.3B
MMF flows	Change in $B	(11.7B)	10.1B
MargDebt- top (300M)	monthly	Jan.	513Bnh
10-yr Tsy yield	hi= stock buying	2.5	2.6
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation		1.33	1.35
TIP (ETF)	Inflation	113.7	113

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance

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Wearin' Of The Green

CON-GRESS or PRO-GRESS?

In these divisive times, not only is the country divided as to opinions, but so is Congress. Winston Churchill once said Democracy is the worst form of government - except for all the others.
Looking up the word "Congress", it comes from the Latin congressus, or congredi, with meanings including coming together and coitus (OMG).

Previous columns have mentioned Hegel's use of Dialectic - where Thesis meets Antithesis to form Synthesis, taking the best ideas from both. Perhaps we should rename Congress: COMITY.

Last week saw the stock market pause on its 8th year ann'y after  the Huge Trump rally. Most Indicators stayed the same direction, only worse. Breadth was bad, as Advances fell behind Declines and New Lows rose on the NYSE and Nas. My fave Indicator failed - the McClellan Oscillator falling below -50 (usually a BUY signal on Monday.

Danger signals remain: Large (record) Margin Interest, I.I. Bulls 3:1 over Bears, and Insider Selling is getting attention. A rare INFLOW to MMFs, most since last Dec. Safe money looks to the 2-year Treas, now 1.37%!
Here are the numbers:

Date		3/10/2017	3/3/2017
Indices:	DJIA	20902	21005
	NAZ	5861	5870
	SPX	2372	2383
WklyVolume (Bshs).	naz/ny….	9.2/4.2	10.2/4.8
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish		2.19	2.13
Sentiment:	put/call-CBOE	62	61
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8		11.7	10.9
DeltaMSI-50%	MAC crossover	58.5	66.7
Advance/Dec-NYSE..		678/2426	1438/1652
Weekly Net:		-1748	-214
Cumulative:		173245	174993
Weekly	NYSE hi/low…	162/169	474/75
New Hi's/Low's	Nasdaq h/l	236/166	490/132
McClellan	Oscillator	-61	-22
McClellanSum	.+750/-1000	440	768
Newsletter	Inv.Intel -Bull	57.7	4:1.63.1
Surveys-Tues	Bear:-5yrs	17.3	16.5
Wed.	AAII  -Bull	30	37.9
	Bear	46.5	35.4
US$-WSJ		101.4	101.3
3-box rev	Bullish%-	76	79nh
US equity -ICI	Fund Flows	WeekLate	5.8B
MMF flows	Change in $B	10.1B	(2B)
MargDebt- top (300M)	monthly		513Bnh
10-yr Tsy yield	hi= stock buying	2.6	2.5
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation		1.35	1.3
TIP (ETF)	Inflation	113	114.1

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance

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CON-GRESS or PRO-GRESS?

Oh, SNAP

In my day we used a different S*** word; investors in Snapchat may switch to the new one, if Barron's is correct and the stock gets cut in half. Looking at today's market - all my positions are in a Sea of Red (after a nice runup). Hopefully it is just Pause that Refreshes!
Barron's also notes that it is the Individual that is driving the market now (not a good sign), rather than Institutions. Bulls at II (Investors' Intelligence) have risen to a 4 to 1 ratio over Bears (see below), not seen since 1987- a year that will go down.....
 Prominent in last week's Sentiment/Breadth data was the rise (monthly) in Margin Interest to new highs, at 513B. As reported earlier, if/when a crash comes, higher rates will cost more to borrow as panickers and AI machines could cause a cascade of Selling, like 1987..
That said, Breadth and momentum still seems strong on Trump's promises.
Here are the numbers:

Date		3/3/2017	2/24/2017
Indices:	DJIA	21005	20821
	NAZ	5870	5845
	SPX	2383	2367
WklyVolume (Bshs).	naz/ny….	10.2/4.8	7.3/3.6
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish		2.13	2.03
Sentiment:	put/call-CBOE	61	64
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8		10.9	11.5
DeltaMSI-50%	MAC crossover	66.7	71.9
Advance/Dec-NYSE..		1438/1652	1763/1334
Weekly Net:		-214	429
Cumulative:		174993	175207
Weekly	NYSE hi/low…	474/75	449/41
New Hi's/Low's	Nasdaq h/l	490/132	496/95
McClellan	Oscillator	-22	2
McClellanSum	.+750/-1000	768	812
Newsletter	Inv.Intel -Bull	4:1.63.1	61.2
Surveys-Tues	Bear:-5yrs	16.5	17.5
Wed.	AAII  -Bull	37.9	38.5
	Bear	35.4	32.1
US$-WSJ		101.3	101.1
3-box rev	Bullish%-	79nh	77nh
US equity -ICI	Fund Flows	WeekLate	3.4B
MMF flows	Change in $B	(2B)	5.1B
MargDebt- top (300M)	monthly	513Bnh	490B
10-yr Tsy yield	hi= stock buying	2.5	2.3
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation		1.3	1.15
TIP (ETF)	Inflation	114.1	114.9

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance

Subscribe in a reader

Oh, SNAP