SENTIMENTAL YEARNING

As I await tomorrow, the 50th Anniversary of the Land's End Pub in San Francisco (now Soda Popinki's at 1548 California St, bet. Polk and Larkin Sts.) , owning it was probably the high point of my life   (so far !). I shall reappear @ 5 pm. to celebrate all the memories of the two decades I was there. Join me if you are willing and able!!!

Then into August, in which month 6 of the past 8 stock markets were down, and the next one could be a doozy if the Fed ever gets out of the way of the Free markets. Even the 4-year Presidential cycle and 7-8 year cycle (think 2008, 2000, 1994, 1987). But what's to worry?  TINA (There Is No Alternative to U S Stocks! What could possibly go wrong?

 Yet another new high for stocks (sans OTC Composite), breadth remained huge (Yuge?) with NYSE new highs to lows : 510 to 19!!!! The Bullish  % , Delta MACD crossover stocks on BUYs and McClellan Summation are getting quite high (but not rolling over).

Get ready for the Olympics and Election news ad nauseam!!!

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance

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SENTIMENTAL YEARNING

Till Debt Do Us Part

No one, including our Fed, seems to be concerned about the massive Debt that the country - gov't, household- even global- is increasing. This cannot end well, whether now or (worse) later. Even reliable cycles - 7 to 8  year ( count from at least 1966), or the destructive 80-year (1930s) portend disaster. Debt to GDP (production) has gone from 55% in 2000 to 110% now (a double!!).

Record low interest rates usually indicate a bad Economy, but the Stock Market roars on!
The wrong Sectors - defensive - are leading the market - Util, Finance, Health, Staples. Quarterly earnings are down for the 5th Q. 18 of the last 19 Recessions have seen the Fed tighten in some manner; they also seem to occur @ the zero year of a decade.

But Breadth is incredibly strong recently - for only the third week in 2016 (since Feb.) mutual equity funds showed Inflows, only .3B - of course ETFs have gained more this year. NYSE new highs to lows were --- 659 to 11; stocks on BUY signals are high.
For the second month in a row (third this year) Insider Selling is huge (Bearish). Each time, including also last Nov., the market sold off.

Here are the numbers:

Date>		7/15/2016	7/8/2016
Indices:	DJIA	18516	18146
	NAZ	5029	4956
	SPX	2161	2129
WklyVolume (Bshs).	naz/ny….	8.4/4.3	7.1/3.8 *
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish		1.95	1.87
Sentiment:	put/call-CBOE	56	64
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8		12.7	13.2
DeltaMSI-50%	MAC crossover	67%	55%
Advance/Dec-NYSE..		2158/984	2073/1067
Weekly Net:		1174	1006
Cumulative:		170845nh	169671nh
Weekly	NYSE hi/low…	659/11	564/62
New Hi's/Low's	Nasdaq h/l	387/70	242/116
McClellan	Oscillator	33	49
McClellanSum	.+750/-1000	1152	914
Newsletter	Inv.Intel -Bull	52.5	47.1
Surveys-Tues	Bear:-5yrs	24.7	24.5
Wed.	AAII  -Bull	36.9	31.1
	Bear	24.4	26.7
US$-WSJ		96.7	96.3
3-box rev	Bullish%-	72	59
US equity -ICI	Fund Flows	WeekLate	.3B
MMF flows	Change in $B	(2B)	(17.4B)
MargDebt- top (300M)	monthly
10-yr Tsy yield	hi= stock buying	1.55%	1.36%
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation		0.67%	0.60%
TIP (ETF)	Inflation	116.3	117.5

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance

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Till Debt Do Us Part

WHO'S THE PATSY?

At the table? Trying to compete with AI microsecond trading by computers, Institutions with huge databases at their disposal, hedge funds, et.al. - it looks like the small investor is! The best we can do is try to follow the Trend.
Although that trend looks appealing right now, many sage investors- Gundlach, Icahn, Soros, Druckenmiller, and now even Goldman Sachs- are calling for at least a correction @ 10%.
Last week's post-holiday rally pushed my cumulative Advance/Decline number to a record high (although the McClellan Summation is not there); the NYSE new highs to lows were @10:1;
mutual fund cash pulled a large reversal to the outflow side.
Gold and Silver have rallied a lot this year, and could benefit more from NIRP (negative interest rates) after a possible correction.

Here are the numbers:

Date>		7/8/2016	7/1/2016
Indices:	DJIA	18146	17949
	NAZ	4956	4862
	SPX	2129	2102
WklyVolume (Bshs).	naz/ny….	7.1/3.8 *	10.6/5.7
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish		1.87	1.86
Sentiment:	put/call-CBOE	64	64
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8		13.2	14.8
DeltaMSI-50%	MAC crossover	55%	52%
Advance/Dec-NYSE..		2073/1067	2504/653
Weekly Net:		1006	1851
Cumulative:		169671nh	168665
Weekly	NYSE hi/low…	564/62	587/159
New Hi's/Low's	Nasdaq h/l	242/116	205/277
McClellan	Oscillator	49	46
McClellanSum	.+750/-1000	914	815
Newsletter	Inv.Intel -Bull	47.1	41.6
Surveys-Tues	Bear:-5yrs	24.5	23.8
Wed.	AAII  -Bull	31.1	28.9
	Bear	26.7	33.4
US$-WSJ		96.3	95.6
3-box rev	Bullish%-	59	52
US equity -ICI	Fund Flows	WeekLate	(7.0B)
MMF flows	Change in $B	(17.4B)	14.9B
MargDebt- top (300M)	monthly		451B
10-yr Tsy yield	hi= stock buying	1.36%	1.44%
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation		0.60%	0.60%
TIP (ETF)	Inflation	117.5	116.8

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance

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WHO'S THE PATSY?

JASON - OH, THE HORROR!

As we end the 4th of July weekend, we enter JASON in the stock market: July through November. If history be our guide, the (legal) Insider Trading chart does not bode well for this underperforming semi-annual cycle. Previous tops of high selling by corporate Insiders came in July of last year, October, and this past April.
A longer chart shows households with an above average percentage of stock holdings, which could lead to an underperforming next decade; especially after the Fed-led rally of the past one. Another negative is my new Sentiment Indicator - the Delta MSI (market sentiment) - showing just above 50% of stocks on a Buy signal (Moving Averages). This mirrors its sibling the Bullish % with the same number (see below).

Other standouts are the 2 and 10-year Treasuries yields dropping; the TIP Inflation ETF at a recent high of almost 117 (123 is the long term high); and on the Bullish case, the AAII Bears dominate the Bulls 33 to 29.
Here are the numbers:

Date>		7/1/2016	6/24/2016
Indices:	DJIA	17949	17400
	NAZ	4862	4708
	SPX	2102	2037
WklyVolume (Bshs).	naz/ny….	10.6/5.7	10.6/6.0
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish		1.86	1.77
Sentiment:	put/call-CBOE	64	74
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8		14.8	25.8
DeltaMSI-50%	MAC crossover	52%	62%
Advance/Dec-NYSE..		2504/653	1243/1916
Weekly Net:		1851	-673
Cumulative:		168665	166814
Weekly	NYSE hi/low…	587/159	391/73
New Hi's/Low's	Nasdaq h/l	205/277	167/194
McClellan	Oscillator	46	-21
McClellanSum	.+750/-1000	815	772
Newsletter	Inv.Intel -Bull	41.6	47.5
Surveys-Tues	Bear:-5yrs	23.8	23.2
Wed.	AAII  -Bull	28.9	22
	Bear	33.4	35.2
US$-WSJ		95.6	95.5
3-box rev	Bullish%-	52	60
US equity -ICI	Fund Flows	WeekLate	(4.2B)
MMF flows	Change in $B	14.9B	(3.6B)
MargDebt- top (300M)	monthly	451B
10-yr Tsy yield	hi= stock buying	1.44%	1.56%
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation		0.60%	0.63%
TIP (ETF)	Inflation	116.8	115.8

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance

Subscribe in a reader

JASON - OH, THE HORROR!