Another danger, of course, is the global NIRP which is affecting the U.S. interest rates, as foreigners buy record amounts of Treasuries - how will pensions, Social Security retirement accounts meet their 7.5% necessary profit performance in a negative world, mandating at least some Treasuries in their investment portfolios? But the stock market rolls on!!!
A Barron's editorial finds that over the past 50 years, the stock market in 20-year slices, has always gained 8 to 12%. And Tom Bowley of Stockcharts.com relates that stocks bought between the 27th of the month and the 6th of the next shows 100% of the gains!! BTW , those of us GGU alums will recognize Gatis Roze as a regular contributor...
Despite recent weakness, most Sentiment Indicators, just like the indices, are near recent Bullish levels - NYSE H/Los were 513 to 37.
Here are the numbers:
Date> | 6/10/2016 | 6/3/2016 | |
Indices: | DJIA | 17865 | 17807 |
NAZ | 4894 | 4942 | |
SPX | 2096 | 2099 | |
WklyVolume (Bshs). | naz/ny…. | 8.5/4.3 | 7.3/4.3* |
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish | 1.98 | 1.7 | |
Sentiment: | put/call-CBOE | 67 | 60 |
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8 | 17 | 13.5 | |
DeltaMSI-50% | MAC crossover | 74% | 70% |
Advance/Dec-NYSE.. | 1576/1589 | 2167/1011 | |
Weekly Net: | -13 | 1156 | |
Cumulative: | 168313 | 168326 | |
Weekly | NYSE hi/low… | 513/37 | 368/27 |
New Hi's/Low's | Nasdaq h/l | 255/108 | 202/79 |
McClellan | Oscillator | -13 | 30 |
McClellanSum | .+750/-1000 | 990 | 843 |
Newsletter | Inv.Intel -Bull | 47.3 | 45.4 |
Surveys-Tues | Bear:-5yrs | 23.8 | 23.7 |
Wed. | AAII -Bull | 27.8 | 30.2 |
Bear | 27.8 | 29.1 | |
US$-WSJ | 94.7 | 94 | |
3-box rev | Bullish%- | 72 | 71 |
US equity -ICI | Fund Flows | WeekLate | (.8B) |
MMF flows | Change in $B | (5.7B) | 0 |
MargDebt- top (300M) | monthly | 456B | |
10-yr Tsy yield | hi= stock buying | 1.64% | 1.70% |
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation | 0.73% | 0.78% | |
TIP (ETF) | Inflation | 115.8 | 115.1 |
With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance
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