Breaking News: In today's TV interview, Charles Biderman, of TrimTabs in Santa Rosa, probably the best data analyzer next to Ned Davis and Bespoke Group, announced they were 100% in Cash, just as in early 2016. His reason is that in recent months $$ flows into equities by retail and institutions were net ZERO, so all market movers came from corporate stock Buybacks, although that has dropped as of March.
Another startling fact I observed in Barron's this weekend was the correlation (albeit small sampling of 4) between their Insider Selling peaks and the SPX tops over the past year -May, July, October, now. The Option column states that institutions bought 99,000 SPX calls to hedge VIX calls (against a market decline, and another 330,000 calls as well).
Sentiment Indicators last week showed a high and toppy Delta MSI rising stock level of 85 (same as last week) and a high Bullish%; the McClellan Summation is at a high level over 1200; and the Inv. Intell. Bull to Bear ratio is wildly Bullish, by a 24 point margin (complacency).
Whether to Sell in May or hedge and ride it out is the quandary. One way might be to do a Buy/Write on the VIX ETF - UVXY, as the Implied Volatility on the calls are Huge - 150 (lots of premium to sell)..
Here are the numbers:
| Date> | 4/29/2016 | 4/22/2016 | |
| Indices: | DJIA | 17773 | 18003 |
| NAZ | 4775 | 4906 | |
| SPX | 2065 | 2091 | |
| WklyVolume (Bshs). | naz/ny…. | …...9.8/5.1 | ……..8.9/4.8 |
| Specul.Ratio hi=bullish | 1.92 | 1.85 | |
| Sentiment: | put/call-CBOE | 68 | 69 |
| VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8 | 15.7 | 13.2 | |
| DeltaMSI-50% | MAC crossover | 85% | 85% |
| Advance/Dec-NYSE.. | 1639/1528 | 2143/1037 | |
| Weekly Net: | 111 | 1106 | |
| Cumulative: | 166299 | 166188 | |
| Weekly | NYSE hi/low… | 270/25 | 336/27 |
| New Hi's/Low's | Nasdaq h/l | 207/93 | 192/77 |
| McClellan | Oscillator | -9 | 25 |
| McClellanSum | .+750/-1000 | 1215.0 | 1168 |
| Newsletter | Inv.Intel -Bull | 44.3 | 47.4 |
| Surveys-Tues | Bear:-5yrs | 20.6 | 21.7 |
| Wed. | AAII -Bull | 27.4 | 33.4 |
| Bear | 28.6 | 23.9 | |
| US$-WSJ | 93 | 95.1 | |
| 3-box rev | Bullish%- | 76 | 78 |
| US equity -ICI | Fund Flows | weekLate | (4.2B) |
| MMF flows | Change in $B | 10.3B | (32.9B) |
| MargDebt- top (300M) | monthly | 446B | |
| 2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation | 0.78% | 0.82% | |
| TIP (ETF) | Inflation | 114.9 | 113.8 |
With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance
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