SELL IN MAY AND GO AWAY

Per usual, I need to head for the hills of Lake Tahoe and Redding, CA to family bond and celebrate my birthdate - Friday the 13th - with my brother's ma-in-law's 96th. Being data dependent, blogs will not be forthcoming for awhile.

Near term and all time peaks abound : the DJIA and SPX approaching last year's highs; Barron's chart of Insider Transaction spiking as with previous tops in April '15, July and Oct.

Breadth has been very strong lately - Advance/Declines (cumulative near tops); stocks on BUY signals -Bullish % and Delta MSI;    VIX with a 13 handle (complacency). NYSE new highs to lows beat the 10:1 ratio last week; even newsletter surveys, reporting midweek, are wildly Bullish - a contrary indicator.
Here are the numbers:

Date>	2016	4/22/2016	4/15/2016
Indices:	DJIA	18003	17897
	NAZ	4906	4938
	SPX	2091	2080
WklyVolume (Bshs).	naz/ny….	8.9/4.8	8.5/4.8
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish		1.85	1.77
Sentiment:	put/call-CBOE	69	65
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8		13.2	13.6
DeltaMSI-50%	MAC crossover	85%	n/a
Advance/Dec-NYSE..		2143/1037	2503/664
Weekly Net:		1106	1839
Cumulative:		166188	165082
Weekly	NYSE hi/low…	336/27	276/20
New Hi's/Low's	Nasdaq h/l	192/77	140/74
McClellan	Oscillator	25	16
McClellanSum	.+750/-1000	1168	1020
Newsletter	Inv.Intel -Bull	47.4	41.2
Surveys-Tues	Bear:-5yrs	21.7	27.8
Wed.	AAII  -Bull	33.4	27.9
	Bear	23.9	24.9
US$-WSJ		95.1	94.7
3-box rev	Bullish%-	78	77
US equity -ICI	Fund Flows	weekLate	(4.3B)
MMF flows	Change in $B	(32.9B)	(7.7B)
MargDebt- top (300M)	monthly
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation		0.82%	0.74%
TIP (ETF)	Inflation	113.8	114.3

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance

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SELL IN MAY AND GO AWAY

V FOR VOLATILITY

Other than the Warriors' expected victory, the high point of  this past weekend was a 2-hour class/tutorial (free) at the S F Options Group meetup at Fort Mason by Richard Lehman on Options and Volatility - Outstanding - I even bought his and Larry McMillan's book: Options For Volatile Markets! What I learned most was to abandon my hedging positions of TVIX (which has no options, and has broken down below its longterm Support) in favor of UVXY which, just as NUGT for gold miners, has HUGE IV or Implied Volatility - which is the "juice" one sells to make big bucks.

It was great to see old friends again, after my recoop time from knee replacements, and even got an invite to give my DITM (covered call) talk to the Silicon Valley Option Group sometime this summer.  Although I discovered this income strategy (in a zero interest rate world) back in 2009, it seems to me more timely now, as the Bull market wears down, and rates seem to be destined to stay low ( even negative??).

Last week's Sentiment Indicators were very similar to the previous week's dramatic one, with the McClellan Summation (of the weekly Oscillator) again breaching the 1,000 mark - Positive Advances/Declines. If breadth continues strong it can (eventually) break up through the indices all-time highs. DJIA 18,351 (today 17.968); S&P 500 2,134 (today 2089).
Here are today's numbers:

Date>	2016	4/15/2016	4/8/2016
Indices:	DJIA	17897	17576
	NAZ	4938	4850
	SPX	2080	2047
WklyVolume (Bshs).	naz/ny….	8.5/4.8	8.6/4.5
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish		1.77	1.97
Sentiment:	put/call-CBOE	65	68
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8		13.6	15.4
DeltaMSI-50%	MAC crossover	n/a	74%
Advance/Dec-NYSE..		2503/664	1225/1958
Weekly Net:		1839	-733
Cumulative:		165082	163243
Weekly	NYSE hi/low…	276/20	277/47
New Hi's/Low's	Nasdaq h/l	140/74	126/91
McClellan	Oscillator	16	-17
McClellanSum	.+750/-1000	1020	940
Newsletter	Inv.Intel -Bull	41.2	45.4
Surveys-Tues	Bear:-5yrs	27.8	27.8
Wed.	AAII  -Bull	27.9	32.2
	Bear	24.9	21.5
US$-WSJ		94.7	94.2
3-box rev	Bullish%-	77	76
US equity -ICI	Fund Flows	weekLate	(5.3B)
MMF flows	Change in $B	(7.7B)	(26.7B)
MargDebt- top (300M)	monthly
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation		0.74%	0.70%
TIP (ETF)	Inflation	114.3	116

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance

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V FOR VOLATILITY

ETFs - WTF?

This week's Barron's financial magazine profiled the best of Dividend ETFs and Schwab's came out on TOP! I've been recommending this one-  SCHD - for my family and those who are not zoned in on the investment scene. Regular contributions benefit from compound interest - the 8th Wonder of the World - especially if the market drops (buying more shares!).

Also #1 on the list of first quarter ETFs/stocks: the NUGT, which is 3 X the DGX ETF, or gold miner stocks. It was up 140% and is still rising. The huge Volatility cuts both ways - Up and Down, so it is quite dangerous, if not hedged . However, using my DITM (deep-in-the-money covered calls) lessens the risk.

Finally, another highly recommended choice - CEFs or Closed-End Funds (munis) -which  I've owned and recommended for years, are both lucrative and relatively safe.

All of these could unwind (temporarily) When (not If) the stock market tanks - which is why I recommend another 2 X ETF - the TVIX, which "should" rise dramatically as stocks tank. Handle with Care!
Last week's extreme Sentiment Indicators were again mixed, with the 2-year Treas. dropping while the TIP hit new recent highs; the dollar is dropping - helping both gold and U S stocks overseas.
Here are the numbers:

Date>	2016	4/8/2016	4/1/2016
Indices:	DJIA	17576	17792
	NAZ	4850	4914
	SPX	2047	2072
WklyVolume (Bshs).	naz/ny….	8.6/4.5	8.4/4.5
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish		1.97	1.87
Sentiment:	put/call-CBOE	68	64
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8		15.4	13.1
DeltaMSI-50%	MAC crossover	74%	71%
Advance/Dec-NYSE..		1225/1958	2299/889
Weekly Net:		-733	1410
Cumulative:		163243	163976
Weekly	NYSE hi/low…	277/47	376/31
New Hi's/Low's	Nasdaq h/l	126/91	159/105
McClellan	Oscillator	-17	13
McClellanSum	.+750/-1000	940	1075
Newsletter	Inv.Intel -Bull	45.4	43.3
Surveys-Tues	Bear:-5yrs	27.8	28.9
Wed.	AAII  -Bull	32.2	27.2
	Bear	21.5	25.8
US$-WSJ		94.2	94.6
3-box rev	Bullish%-	76	79
US equity -ICI	Fund Flows	weekLate	(3.7B)
MMF flows	Change in $B	(26.7B)	13.9B
MargDebt- top (300M)	monthly		436B
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation		0.70%	0.74%
TIP (ETF)	Inflation	116	114.7

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance

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ETFs - WTF?

T For TWO

Previously mentioned TVIX for hedging still looks like a viable option, although it has never been this low (barely breaking below $5). It echoes the VIX 2-fold, which is also weak recently, but the ETN, based on expiring futures, usually does lose money y/y. However, based on chart activity, it should scream up if the market tanks - last Sept. it hit $20 - 4 X its previous average level.

Sentiment Indicators are anything but boring these days:  The TIP (Inflation indicator) hit a recent high at 114, while the 2-year Treas. dropped a bunch - .89% to .74%. MMF flows went from minus $15B to plus $14B in a wild swing. The McClellan Summation Index came off a 1000 level ( a rara avis); the Bullish % - stocks on a BUY signal are at a high 79%, while the $ weakens.
Finally, the Bullish signs include my newly acquired Delta MSI from Barron's - stocks breaking up through their 50- MA; and the NYSE Hi to Los were more than 10:1...

Here are the numbers:

Date>	2016	4/1/2016	3/24/16*
Indices:	DJIA	17792	17515
	NAZ	4914	4773
	SPX	2072	2035
WklyVolume (Bshs).	naz/ny….	8.4/4.5	6.4/3.4*
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish		1.87	1.88
Sentiment:	put/call-CBOE	64	82
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8		13.1	14.7
DeltaMSI-50%	MAC crossover	71%	69%
Advance/Dec-NYSE..		2299/889	1055/2113
Weekly Net:		1410	-1058
Cumulative:		163976	162566
Weekly	NYSE hi/low…	376/31	166/27
New Hi's/Low's	Nasdaq h/l	159/105	101/96
McClellan	Oscillator	13	-5
McClellanSum	.+750/-1000	1075	990
Newsletter	Inv.Intel -Bull	43.3	47.4
Surveys-Tues	Bear:-5yrs	28.9	27
Wed.	AAII  -Bull	27.2	33.8
	Bear	25.8	23.7
US$-WSJ		94.6	96.1
3-box rev	Bullish%-	79	76
US equity -ICI	Fund Flows	weekLate	(2.1B)
MMF flows	Change in $B	13.9B	(14.8B)
MargDebt- top (300M)	monthly	436B	447B
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation		0.74%	0.89%
TIP (ETF)	Inflation	114.7	113.2

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance

Subscribe in a reader

T For TWO