Monday, December 28, 2015

WHIFF THIS

Although Inflation is still a long way away, due to a sluggish Economy, etc., the 2-year Treasury Note broke 1% last week, to the upside; the TIPs are still under control, however.
The reliable McClellan Oscillator, at +50 last week, bode unwell for today, which opened down 100 DJI points; however, the AAII Bears still dominate the Bulls and New Highs/Lows (breadth) still stinks. Dec.18, posted below, showed the classic 10:1 low/high ratio on the NYSE, much better last week.
Nice Santa rally last week - has he left town?

Date> 12/24/2015 12/18/2015
Indices: DJIA  17552 17128
  NAZ  5048 4923
SPX  2061 2005
WklyVolume (Bshs). naz/ny…. 5.5/3.0* 11.5/6.5
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish 1.83 1.77
Sentiment: put/call-CBOE  59 66
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8 15.7 20.7
Advance/Dec-NYSE.. 2853/371 1517/1721
Weekly Net: 2482 -204
     Cumulative: 161072 158590
Weekly  NYSE hi/low… 88/215 78/793
New Hi's/Low's Nasdaq h/l 96/237 122/519
McClellan  Oscillator 50 -33
McClellanSum .+750/-1000 -137 -244
Newsletter Inv.Intel -Bull n/a 37.8
Surveys-Tues Bear:-5yrs n/a 29.6
Wed. AAII  -Bull  26.4 23.9
Bear  31.5 39.4
US$-WSJ 89.7
CEOinsider selling n/a Finance
3-box rev Bullish%-  56 54
US equity -ICI Fund Flows week delay  (7.4B)
MMF flows Change in $B 11B (20.3B)
MargDebt- top (300M) monthly  473B NOV.:
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation 1.01% 0.97%
TIP (ETF) Inflation 109.9 109.9


With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance


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Monday, December 14, 2015

ETFs

Per Barron's this week, ETF flows stats are not reliably reported - apparently if one is shorted, it reports shares as Inflows as well - stat will be deleted from now on. Open end mutual funds and MMFs (money market) flows will still be reported.

Ugly week in stocks last week - breadth was terrible, with Advance/Declines as well as new lows to highs nearly 10 to one on the downside. The reliable McClellan Oscillator was a huge minus 80 a/o Friday, which usually foretells an UP Monday, which started down but rallied midday.

No Inflation showing in the TIPS yet, and the 2-year Treas. yield dropped back after hitting a new high the week before (see below) . Insider Selling to Buying dropped to a recent low of 8:1, with buying the more reliable number.
Here are the numbers:

Date> 12/11/2015 12/4/2015
Indices: DJIA  17265 17847
  NAZ  4933 5142
SPX  2012 2091
WklyVolume (Bshs). naz/ny…. 9.6/4.8 10.1/5.2
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish 2 1.94
Sentiment: put/call-CBOE  82 69
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8 24.4 14.8
Advance/Dec-NYSE.. 386/2844 1122/2099
Weekly Net: -2458 -977
     Cumulative: 158794 161252
Weekly  NYSE hi/low… 80/639 191/267
New Hi's/Low's Nasdaq h/l 113/429 266/235
McClellan  Oscillator -80 -14
McClellanSum .+750/-1000 -34 252
Newsletter Inv.Intel -Bull 44.9 41.2
Surveys-Tues Bear:-5yrs 27.6 26.8
Wed. AAII  -Bull  28.5 29.5
Bear  29.9 21.2
US$-WSJ 89.7 89.7
CEOinsider selling .8:1 .20:1
3-box rev Bullish%-  56 66
US equity -ICI Fund Flows week delay  (8.0B)
MMF flows Change in $B 12.7B 17.8B
MargDebt- top (300M) monthly  472B
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation 0.89% NH:0.96%
TIP (ETF) Inflation 110.3 110.4



With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance


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Saturday, December 5, 2015

POST OP UPDATES

Still recovering from knee replacement surgery, here are the latest Sentiment stats:

Date> 11/27/2015 12/4/2015
Indices: DJIA  17798 17847
  NAZ  5127 5142
SPX  2090 2091
WklyVolume (Bshs). naz/ny…. 5.9/2.8* 10.1/5.2
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish 2.1 1.94
Sentiment: put/call-CBOE  65 69
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8 15.1 14.8
Advance/Dec-NYSE.. 2052/1157 1122/2099
Weekly Net: 895 -977
     Cumulative: 162229 161252
Weekly  NYSE hi/low… 183/203 191/267
New Hi's/Low's Nasdaq h/l 194/201 266/235
McClellan  Oscillator 27 -14
McClellanSum .+750/-1000 253 252
Newsletter Inv.Intel -Bull 45.4 41.2
Surveys-Tues Bear:-5yrs 26.8 26.8
Wed. AAII  -Bull  32.4 29.5
Bear  26 21.2
US$-WSJ 90.8 89.7
CEOinsider selling .29:1 .20:1
3-box rev Bullish%-  69 66
US equity -ICI Fund Flows week delay  (3.5B)
MMF flows Change in $B 11.8B 17.8B
MargDebt- top (300M) monthly  OCT: 472B
ETF:mthlyEqty/ Int'l/Bond-$B OCT: 1271/484/345
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation 0.93% NH:0.96%
TIP (ETF) Inflation 110.8 110.4


With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance


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