Contrary to what I posted earlier this month (Contrarian
that I am!), after visiting with family and friends over the past two weeks in Redding and So. Lake
Tahoe, I find that some extended family members ( possibly back east) would
like to hear what I have to offer in the way of Investment Finance info I dig
up each week and report on my blog - Mktsentiment.blogspot.com , after over ten
years of doing so.
I don't pretend to know or forecast what the market will do
short term - no one can do that, just as with the weather or Economy. Contrary
to these last two predictions which are impossible to envision long term, short
term markets are harder (less profitable) to trade, unless you are a highly
trained trader or HFT (high frequency trader- computer).
For young people just starting out, as well as retirees who
do not need their 401Ks/IRAs for emergencies ( passing them on to heirs) IMO
the stock market is the place to be. Lately the go to investment is Index funds
- either mutual funds, or ETFs (Exchange Traded Funds) which are usually mutual
funds traded on an exchange, such as the New York SE. They have outperformed
"managed" funds due to very low management fees.
I recently read that over 50 years, with a high fee (over 2%
annually) the managed fund fees will suck up 66% of the money you invest -
outrageous!
Having worked for Schwab, I can recommend their Index funds
as well as Vanguard's.
Over time, stocks have outperformed all other asset classes
such as Real Estate, Gold, Bonds, etc. , although as we've seen this century,
all have Boom/Bust cycles.
I've mentioned in previous columns that DCA (Dollar Cost
Averaging) is definitely the way to go - adding a set amount at fixed periods
over time. For example, if ine had just started to invest for retirement in the
Nasdaq (Over The Counter, mostly tech stocks) in 2000, they would be at the same
level now - unless they had contributed (DCA) during the bottoms of
2002 and 2009. Of course, even though the Composite Index (COMPQ) has risen
from 1555 to its old high of 5048, it does not have near the 100 P/E ratio back
then (now @19). With $CA one can actually be Happy to see the market sell off -
one can buy more shares with a fixed amount!
Enough for now - nest week I hope to explain the purpose of
my blog (above) for persons who want to "time" the markets using
Technical Analysis (rather than Fundamental) - using Charts that show Price
Volume over Time (as well as my favorite Indicator: Sentiment, or Contrary
Behavior.
Below are my favorite Sentiment Indicators which I have
followed over two decades, having gotten my Market Technician designation on
that topic:
|
Date>
|
|
5/15/2015
|
5/22/2015
|
|
Indices:
|
DJIA
|
18272
|
18232
|
|
|
NAZ
|
5048
|
5089
|
|
|
SPX
|
2122
|
2126
|
|
WklyVolume
(Bshs).
|
naz/ny….
|
8.4/3.7
|
8.3/3.4
|
|
Specul.Ratio
hi=bullish
|
2.27
|
2.44
|
|
|
Sentiment:
|
put/call-CBOE
|
59
|
64
|
|
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8
|
12.4
|
12.1
|
|
|
Advance/Dec-NYSE..
|
1883/1323
|
1496/1731
|
|
|
Weekly
Net:
|
|
560
|
-235
|
|
Cumulative:
|
|
168326
|
168091
|
|
Weekly
|
NYSE
hi/low…
|
198/118
|
265/110
|
|
New
Hi's/Low's
|
Nasdaq
h/l
|
238/150
|
300/152
|
|
McClellan
|
Oscillator
|
n/a
|
-8
|
|
McClellanSum
|
.+750/-1000
|
n/a
|
274
|
|
Newsletter
|
Inv.Intel
-Bull
|
47.5
|
50.6
|
|
Surveys-Tues
|
Bear:-5yrs
|
15.8
|
15.8
|
|
Wed.
|
AAII -Bull
|
26.7
|
25.2
|
|
|
Bear
|
26.4
|
25.0
|
|
COT:SPX
w/w
|
large/small
(net)k
|
|
|
|
COT:gold comm.hedg
|
long-short.000
|
n/a
|
(133k)
|
|
COT:OIL
comm.hedg
|
long-short.
|
n/a
|
(350k)
|
|
US$-WSJ
|
|
n/a
|
86.3
|
|
CEOinsider
|
selling
|
n/a
|
36:1
|
|
off.&bd
b/s.vs.
|
10%
holder b/s
|
|
.160/50
|
|
3-box
rev
|
Bullish%-
|
64
|
64
|
|
|
Fund Flows
|
(5.0B)
|
WeekDelay
|
|
MMF
flows
|
Change
in $B
|
(1B)
|
20.6B
|
|
MargDebt-
top (300M)
|
monthly
|
|
|
|
ETF:mthlyEqty/
|
Int'l/Bond-$B
|
|
|
|
2-yr
Tsy Yield: Inflation
|
n/a
|
0.62%
|
|
|
TIP (ETF)
|
Inflation
|
n/a
|
112.93
|
For those FB readers who get too much "spam"
already (I had to stop FB on my cell as it ran me over on my data feed amount),
they can block my weekly utterances by going to home page - click on the fourth
icon to the right of Find Friends on the upper toolbar (the padlock).
With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance
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