On the downside, every Rainbow must have Rain to produce it! Viewing the PBS program of the 1929 Crash, there are some similarities: It ran up 8 years after WWI (we are up 6 so far, tripling the March '09 low); Blind pools manipulated markets (HFTs?); the Economy slowed, but stocks rose.
Margin buying was at record levels.
Luckily there were warning signs - Corrections- which should be paid to attention to; either hedging or exiting.
The big difference between then and now, however, is the Sentiment. Everyone was in the markets then - shoeshine boys, cab drivers, etc. Last week, again, my Indicators only showed tepid levels:
With all markets barely below record levels, Volume last week was average, as was the ratio of Nasdaq Volume to NYSE (speculative); option put to call ratio and the VIX were quiet; but Gold shorting by the Commercial traders (hedgers) went back up - not a good sign.
Here are the numbers:
| Date> | 4/10/2015 | **4/2/2015 | |
| Indices: | DJIA | 18057 | 17763 |
| NAZ | 4995 | 4886 | |
| SPX | 2102 | 2066 | |
| WklyVolume (Bshs). | naz/ny…. | 8.1/3.7 | **6.9/3.2 |
| Specul.Ratio hi=bullish | 2.19 | 2.16 | |
| Sentiment: | put/call-CBOE | 56 | 69 |
| VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8 | 12.9 | 14.7 | |
| Advance/Dec-NYSE.. | 2072/1155 | 2145/1070 | |
| Weekly Net: | 917 | 1075 | |
| Cumulative: | 167699 | 166782 | |
| Weekly | NYSE hi/low… | 261/57 | |
| New Hi's/Low's | Nasdaq h/l | 237/125 | |
| McClellan | Oscillator | 23 | 12 |
| McClellanSum | .+750/-1000 | 495 | 380 |
| Newsletter | Inv.Intel -Bull | 50.4 | 54.5 |
| Surveys-Tues | Bear:-5yrs | 14.2 | 14.2 |
| Wed. | AAII -Bull | 28.7 | 35.4 |
| Bear | 24.2 | 32 | |
| COT:SPX w/w | large/small (net)k | 10k/(9k) | 6k/(3k) |
| COT:gold comm.hedg | long-short.000 | (108k) | (81k) |
| CEOinsider | selling | 22:1 | 25:1 |
| off.&bd b/s.vs. | 10% holder b/s | .160:30 | .160:30 |
| 3-box rev | Bullish%- | 71 | 70 |
| US equity -ICI | Fund Flows | WeekDelay | (3.3B) |
| MMF flows | Change in $B | 0 | (47B) |
| MargDebt- top (300M) | monthly | 465B | |
| ETF:mthlyEqty/ | Int'l/Bond-$B | 1280/457/320 | |
| 2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation | 0.56% | 0.48% | |
| TIP (ETF) | Inflation | 113.95 | 114.05 |
| **Holiday | |||
With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance
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