Best In Class

The U.S. stock market and economy continues into 2015 as the best and safest of all places to invest (and live). Oil prices benefit most of Americans - consumers and corporations ( transports, utilities), etc.) while the JERCs (Japan, Europe, Russia, China) suffer.

The 18,000 level of the DJIA was finally breached last week and ended above there. Another notable recent high was the 2-year Treasury yield jumping 10 basis points from 0.64% to 0.74%. For new Lows, we look to Volume - the lowest week of the year, with the Holiday and 1/2 day trading. Both speculation (NAS Volume to NYSE) and complacency are again on the rise, but not to extremes yet.

Here are the numbers:

Date>		12/26/2014	12/19/2014
Indices:	DJIA	18053	17804
	NAZ	4806	4765
	SPX	2088	2070
WklyVolume (Bshs).	naz/ny….	4.9/2.3	11.6/6.4
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish		2.13	1.81
Sentiment:	put/call-CBOE	53	67
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8		14.5	16.5
Advance/Dec-NYSE..		2153/1068	2555/703
Weekly Net:		1085	1852
Cumulative:		165192	164107
Weekly	NYSE hi/low…	478/72	319/561
New Hi's/Low's	Nasdaq h/l	317/124	246/396
McClellan	Oscillator	36	16
McClellanSum	.+750/-1000	306	194
Newsletter	Inv.Intel -Bull:tues	n/a	49.5
Surveys	Bear:-5yrs	n/a	14.9
	AAII  -Bull :wed.	50.9	38.7
	Bear	18.9	26.9
COT:SPX w/w	large/small (net)k	n/a	6k/25k
COT:gold  comm.hedg	long-short.000	n/a	(115k)
CEOinsider	selling	31:1	32:1
off.&bd b/s.vs.	10% holder b/s	160:20	165:50
3-box rev	Bullish%-	75	72
US equity -ICI	Fund Flows	WeekDelay	(4.2B)
MMF flows	Change in $B	20.5B	(13.4B)
MargDebt- top (300M)	monthly
ETF:mthlyEqty/	Int'l/Bond-$B
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation		0.74%	0.64%
TIP (ETF)	Inflation		112

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance

Subscribe in a reader

Best In Class

RUNAWAY TRAIN

The question is: Did the the October runaway train just go into a tunnel in December,  or is it off track? History portends  a much higher market - see more Technical reasons at:

  http://www.examiner.com/stock-market-in-san-francisco/brent-leonard.

For now, the Sentiment Indicators seem mixed. Volume last week was very high, but the ratio of NYSE to NASDAQ was showing a more cautious note- below 1:2. Breadth and Price were positive, but the New highs/lows were not. Since the mid-October lows money has flowed into MMFunds every week - until last week, when it reversed. Per Barron's, U.S. equity funds had the largest WITHDRAWAL of money in 10 years - over $28B. Finally, Gold shorters (Commercials) remain strong, so that does not bode well at this time.

Here are  last week's numbers:

Date>		12/19/2014	12/12/2014
Indices:	DJIA	17804	17280
	NAZ	4765	4653
	SPX	2070	2002
WklyVolume (Bshs).	naz/ny….	11.6/6.4	9.4/4.3
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish		1.81	2.19
Sentiment:	put/call-CBOE	67	72
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8		16.5	21.1
Advance/Dec-NYSE..		2555/703	653/2614
Weekly Net:		1852	-1961
Cumulative:		164107	162255
Weekly	NYSE hi/low…	319/561	387/522
New Hi's/Low's	Nasdaq h/l	246/396	286/373
McClellan	Oscillator	16	-63
McClellanSum	.+750/-1000	194	365
Newsletter	Inv.Intel -Bull:tues	49.5	51.5
Surveys	Bear:-5yrs	14.9	14.8
	AAII  -Bull :wed.	38.7	45
	Bear	26.9	22.3
COT:SPX w/w	large/small (net)k	6k/25k	5k/16k
COT:gold  comm.hedg	long-short.000	(115k)	(117k)
CEOinsider	selling	32:1	32:1
off.&bd b/s.vs.	10% holder b/s	165:50	165:25
3-box rev	Bullish%-	72	72
US equity -ICI	Fund Flows	WeekDelay	(4.97B)
MMF flows	Change in $B	(13.4B)	18.5B
MargDebt- top (300M)	monthly
ETF:mthlyEqty/	Int'l/Bond-$B
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation		0.64%	0.54%
TIP (ETF)	Inflation	112	112

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance

Subscribe in a reader

RUNAWAY TRAIN

A Christmas story

Despite the pop up of the 2-year Treasury to a new recent high yield of 0.64%, then back down, I decided to add the TIP ETF (Treasury Inflation fund), which is actually at its recent lows of 112 -110 being the low in 2013 after the December 2012 multiyear high of 123. No Inflation worries now, although Deflation can be even scarier!.  Other notable Indicators were the Gold Commercial shorters rising up again, and Money Market additions went to recent highs - $25B. The  VIX jumped to 21 last week and the CBOE put to call ratio also jumped up to 72 - Bullish FOR the markets.

Here are the numbers:

Date>		12/12/2014	12/5/2014
Indices:	DJIA	17280	17958
	NAZ	4653	4780
	SPX	2002	2075
WklyVolume (Bshs).	naz/ny….	9.4/4.3	8.9/4.0
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish		2.19	2.23
Sentiment:	put/call-CBOE	72	61
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8		21.1	11.8
Advance/Dec-NYSE..		653/2614	1478/1786
Weekly Net:		-1961	-308
Cumulative:		162255	164216
Weekly	NYSE hi/low…	387/522	455/326
New Hi's/Low's	Nasdaq h/l	286/373	286/302
McClellan	Oscillator	-63	-7
McClellanSum	.+750/-1000	365	563
Newsletter	Inv.Intel -Bull:tues	51.5	53.4
Surveys	Bear:-5yrs	14.8	13.9
	AAII  -Bull :wed.	45	42.7
	Bear	22.3	25.9
COT:SPX w/w	large/small (net)k	5k/16k	8k/13k
COT:gold  comm.hedg	long-short.000	(117k)	-89
CEOinsider	selling	32:1	41:1
off.&bd b/s.vs.	10% holder b/s	165:25	165:45
3-box rev	Bullish%-	72	76
US equity -ICI	Fund Flows	WeekDelay	(3B)
MMF flows	Change in $B	18.5B	25.6B
MargDebt- top (300M)	monthly
ETF:mthlyEqty/	Int'l/Bond-$B
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation		0.54%	0.64%
TIP (ETF)	Inflation	112	112

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance

Subscribe in a reader

A Christmas story

Following The Script

Hopefully, now that the Fed is through manipulating the market with extended Debt, it will get back to its normal - which is a usual hiatus in mid-December (selling losers for taxes, winners for window dressing), before a Santa Claus rally.
Extremes in Sentiment last week include:
a jump in the Treas. interest rates (2-year); a rare decline in Advance/Decline - third in two months (and a concomitant negative in the McClellan Oscillator). Also, a large jump in MMF assets.

Here are the numbers:

Date>		12/5/2014	11/28/2014
Indices:	DJIA	17958	17828
	NAZ	4780	4791
	SPX	2075	2067
WklyVolume (Bshs).	naz/ny….	8.9/4.0	5.5/2.9
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish		2.23	1.9
Sentiment:	put/call-CBOE	61	61
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8		11.8	13.3
Advance/Dec-NYSE..		1478/1786	1768/1475
Weekly Net:		-308	293
Cumulative:		164216	164524
Weekly	NYSE hi/low…	455/326	477/194
New Hi's/Low's	Nasdaq h/l	286/302	293/151
McClellan	Oscillator	-7	13
McClellanSum	.+750/-1000	563	592
Newsletter	Inv.Intel -Bull:tues	53.4	56.5
Surveys	Bear:-5yrs	13.9	13.8
	AAII  -Bull :wed.	42.7	52.5
	Bear	25.9	20.8
COT:SPX w/w	large/small (net)k	8k/13k	N/A
COT:gold  comm.hedg	long-short.000	-89	N/A
CEOinsider	selling	41:1	40:1
off.&bd b/s.vs.	10% holder b/s	165:45	215:45
3-box rev	Bullish%-	76	74
US equity -ICI	Fund Flows	WeekDelay	(2.0B)
MMF flows	Change in $B	25.6B	8.4B
MargDebt- top (300M)	monthly		454B
ETF:mthlyEqty/	Int'l/Bond-$B		1168/424/294
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation		0.64%	0.47%

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance

Subscribe in a reader

Following The Script

ThanksTaking

The title of my Examiner.com article this week:   http://www.examiner.com/stock-market-in-san-francisco/brent-leonard -  was supposed to reflect the increasing Greed of stores to hold Holiday sales for most of the week, not just on Black Friday. My acronym - STUD, or Shop Till U Drop didn't intend to mean things like the Chicago shopping mall where a shopper shot his wife and killed himself at the mall!

 Last week set new highs for all indices yet again, despite the Friday selloff in stocks. Volume was down with the Holiday, but not in quality - the 2 handle in the ratio of NASDAQ to NYSE (speculative if high) broke to below 2 last week.Breadth was still positive - Advance/Declines and New highs/lows. Insider trading was not available (N/A) due to Thx, but gold rallied $50 today (Monday).

ETF monthly figures were out for Oct. with Stocks and Bond funds at new highs. Int'l stocks and Margin Interest fell. Here are the numbers:

Date>		########	11/21/2014
Indices:	DJIA	17828	17810
	NAZ	4791	4712
	SPX	2067	2063
WklyVolume (Bshs).	naz/ny….	5.5/2.9	8.4/3.9
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish		1.9	2.15
Sentiment:	put/call-CBOE	61	53
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8		13.3	12.9
Advance/Dec-NYSE..		1768/1475	1949/1287
Weekly Net:		293	662
Cumulative:		164524	164231
Weekly	NYSE hi/low…	477/194	401/123
New Hi's/Low's	Nasdaq h/l	293/151	251/188
McClellan	Oscillator	13	23
McClellanSum	.+750/-1000	592	490
Newsletter	Inv.Intel -Bull:tues	56.5	56.4
Surveys	Bear:-5yrs	13.8	14.9
	AAII  -Bull :wed.	52.5	49.1
	Bear	20.8	23.8
COT:SPX w/w	large/small (net)k	N/A	6k/10k
COT:gold  comm.hedg	long-short.000	N/A	(71k)
CEOinsider	selling	40:1	24:1
off.&bd b/s.vs.	10% holder b/s	215:45	160:45
3-box rev	Bullish%-	74	74
US equity -ICI	Fund Flows	WeekDelay	(3.6B)
MMF flows	Change in $B	8.4B	9.8B
MargDebt- top (300M)	monthly	454B	OCT
ETF:mthlyEqty/	Int'l/Bond-$B	1168/424/294	OCT
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation		0.47%	0.51%
	InsiderTotal:		InsBuy:Fin.(50%)
			10%All Sales

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance

Subscribe in a reader

ThanksTaking