HO HUM

The only surprise in the Sentiment Indicators last week was that there were no surprises. All indicators regressed to the norms from a few extremes - notably (from Barron's) the AAII Bulls coming of the complacent highs from the previous week - highest in 4 years- back below 50%. Disappointing to me were the consistent number (UNCH) of Gold shorts not covering, in what I opined was the start of a good rally. Gold buyers currently include (along with China which has been steadily buying) Russia - getting away from the $; ISIS - getting away from fiat currencies; and the Swiss- getting ready for the Nov.30 vote to hold 20% of Fed money in gold, never to sell any!

Here are the numbers:

Date>		11/21/2014	11/14/2014
Indices:	DJIA	17810	17634
	NAZ	4712	4688
	SPX	2063	2039
WklyVolume (Bshs).	naz/ny	8.4/3.9	8.8/3.5
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish		2.15	2.51
Sentiment:	put/call-CBOE	53	60
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8		12.9	13.3
Advance/Dec-NYSE..		1949/1287	1534/1726
Weekly Net:		662	-192
Cumulative:		164231	163569
Weekly	NYSE hi/low	401/123	458/116
New Hi's/Low's	Nasdaq h/l	251/188	313/184
McClellan	Oscillator	23	15
McClellanSum	.+750/-1000	490	441
Newsletter	Inv.Intel -Bull:tues	56.4	55.5
Surveys	Bear:-5yrs	14.9	14.8
	AAII  -Bull :wed.	49.1	57.9
	Bear	23.8	19.3
COT:SPX w/w	large/small (net)k	6k/10k	6K/6K
COT:gold  comm.hedg	long-short.000	(71k)	(72K)
CEOinsider	selling	24:1	34:1
off.&bd b/s.vs.	10% holder b/s	160:45	210:40
3-box rev	Bullish%-	74	69
US equity -ICI	Fund Flows	WeekDelay	unch
MMF flows	Change in $B	9.8B	9.1B
MargDebt- top (300M)	monthly		SEPT:
ETF:mthlyEqty/	Int'l/Bond-$B		SEPT:
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation		0.51%	0.52%
	InsiderTotal:	InsBuy:Fin.(50%)
		10%All Sales

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance

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HO HUM

REST STOP

After a huge post-correction rally, it might be a time to stop and reflect on the immediate future of stocks. The McClellan Oscillator is coming off a very high level, and the NYA Composite it is based on has  yet to hit a new high, unlike the other indices which went to new highs - albeit on negative A/D breadth. The Oscillator itself went negative after posting +50 highs the last three weeks.
Insider selling increased a bit, as did shorting of gold - but the gold miners' indices seemed to jump up with huge Volume the past few days - Oversold? GDX, NUGT.

Here are the numbers:

Date>		11/14/2014	11/7/2014
Indices:	DJIA	17634	17573
	NAZ	4688	4632
	SPX	2039	2031
WklyVolume (Bshs).	naz/ny	8.8/3.5	9.7/3.9
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish		2.51	2.49
Sentiment:	put/call-CBOE	60	63
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8		13.3	13.1
Advance/Dec-NYSE..		1534/1726	1798/1451
Weekly Net:		-192	347
Cumulative:		163569	163761
Weekly	NYSE hi/low	458/116	540/172
New Hi's/Low's	Nasdaq h/l	313/184	337/192
McClellan	Oscillator	15	53
McClellanSum	.+750/-1000	441	275
Newsletter	Inv.Intel -Bull:tues	55.5	54.6
Surveys	Bear:-5yrs	14.8	15.1
	AAII  -Bull :wed.	57.9	52.7
	Bear	19.3	15.1
COT:SPX w/w	large/small (net)k	6K/6K	5k/3k
COT:gold  comm.hedg	long-short.000	(72K)	(55k)
CEOinsider	selling	34:1	24:1
off.&bd b/s.vs.	10% holder b/s	210:40	160:45
3-box rev	Bullish%-	69	65
US equity -ICI	Fund Flows	WeekDelay	(1.7B)
MMF flows	Change in $B	9.1B	5.9B
MargDebt- top (300M)	monthly	SEPT:	464B
ETF:mthlyEqty/	Int'l/Bond-$B	SEPT:	1120/432/276
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation		0.52%	0.50%

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance

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REST STOP

HIGHS AND LOWS

HIGHS AND LOWS

As markets hit new Highs last week, I thought it a good idea to post the multi-year Hi's and Lo's for my Indicators - see previous blog for the individual results:

Date>	DECADE	HI	LOW
Indices:	DJIA	17573	6626
	NAZ	4632	1114
	SPX	2031	683
WklyVolume (Bshs).
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish		3.39	1.59
Sentiment:	put/call-CBOE	104.11/08	42
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8		90	8.8
Advance/Dec-NYSE..
Weekly Net:
Cumulative:		164731	71464
Weekly	NYSE hi/low	950	18
New Hi's/Low's	Nasdaq h/l
McClellan	Oscillator	Jan.09:108	May.'12:(110)
McClellan Sum	.+750/-1000	1568-6/03	(1514).
Newsletter	Inv.Intel -Bull:tues	62.9-12/04	22.2-10/08
Surveys	Bear:-5yrs	54.4-10/08	13.3-9/14
	AAII  -Bull :wed.	(12/10)63.3
	Bear	70.3(3/09)	16.4
COT:Change w/w	large/small (net)k
COT:gold  comm.hedg		(166k)nh
CEOinsider	selling	235:1	.2.1
3-box rev	Bullish%-	88	2
US equity -ICI	Fund Flows
MMF flows	Change in $B
MargDebt- top (300M)	monthly	466B
ETF:Eqty/	Int'l/Bond	1141/454/281
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation		0.58%nh

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance

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HIGHS AND LOWS

V FOR VICTORY

The V-Spike is a common Technical Analysis signal, especially when occurring with massive Volume, as the recent (finally) expected October decline of nearly 10%  - a correction area. Since then it has been onward and upward, and I expect more of the same. More commentary (!) at:

  http://www.examiner.com/stock-market-in-san-francisco/brent-leonard

Most remarkable of the Sentiment Indicators last week were: New Highs in the DJIA, SPX, Utils and Transports - and the NAS is nearing its record of the 2000 Bubble of 5049. There seems to be a conflict of the Bull/Bear views - the CBOE is high (fear) in the 60s, while complacency reigns in the Surveys - AAII and Inv. Intell., which come out mid-week.

Most remarkable was the Sector line of Insider Selling AND Buying last week - both huge, but the ratio was down to 24 to 1 Sellers (see below). The monthly stats of ETF flows finally came out for Sept. - down in all three categories.

Here are the numbers:

Date>		11/7/2014	10/31/2014
Indices:	DJIA	17573	17390
	NAZ	4632	4630
	SPX	2031	2018
WklyVolume (Bshs).	naz/ny	9.7/3.9	10.0/4.2
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish		2.49	2.38
Sentiment:	put/call-CBOE	63	62
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8		13.1	14
Advance/Dec-NYSE..		1798/1451	2440/813
Weekly Net:		347	1627
Cumulative:		163761	163414
Weekly	NYSE hi/low	540/172	441/156
New Hi's/Low's	Nasdaq h/l	337/192	332/182
McClellan	Oscillator	53	84
McClellanSum	.+750/-1000	275	-5
Newsletter	Inv.Intel -Bull:tues	54.6	47
Surveys	Bear:-5yrs	15.1	16.3
	AAII  -Bull :wed.	52.7	49.4
	Bear	15.1	21.1
COT:SPX w/w	large/small (net)k	5k/3k	(4k)/(6k)
COT:gold  comm.hedg	long-short.000	(55k)	(99k)
CEOinsider	selling	24:1	29:1
off.&bd b/s.vs.	10% holder b/s	160:45	160:25
3-box rev	Bullish%-	65	60
US equity -ICI	Fund Flows	WeekDelay	1.1B
MMF flows	Change in $B	5.9B	6.1B
MargDebt- top (300M)	monthly		464B
ETF:mthlyEqty/	Int'l/Bond-$B		1120/432/276
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation		0.50%	0.49%

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance

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V FOR VICTORY

BUY HIGH, SELL HIGHER?

The motto of the IBD ( Investors' Daily) is worth considering these days. Several Sentiment Indicators are relatively high (complacent) but with what is traditionally the best three months of the year, and the U.S. stock market the best game in town, how much more rally can we see?
The U. of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index is the highest it has been since...2007!

Last week was the best one in two years as many indices hit all time highs, including the Utilities - the Nasdaq is getting closer. Breadth is very positive, with the McClellan Oscillator hitting above my +50 (sell) number, but it is also the first trading day of the month. Traders' Almanac states the first day in the past outperformed all other days of the month combined.

Commercial traders of Gold are still shorting it bigtime, although I hope we saw a Selling Climax of Volume recently. Gartner sees it going lower.

Here are the numbers from last week - the monthly numbers at the bottom - Margin Interest and ETF flows have been reported as well.

Date>		10/31/2014	10/24/2014
Indices:	DJIA	17390	16805
	NAZ	4630	4483
	SPX	2018	1964
WklyVolume (Bshs).	naz/ny	10.0/4.2	9.3/3.9
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish		2.38	2.38
Sentiment:	put/call-CBOE	62	63
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8		14	16.1
Advance/Dec-NYSE..		2440/813	2135/572
Weekly Net:		1627	1563
Cumulative:		163414	161787
Weekly	NYSE hi/low	441/156	214/101
New Hi's/Low's	Nasdaq h/l	332/182	137/152
McClellan	Oscillator	84	68
McClellanSum	.+750/-1000	-5	-353
Newsletter	Inv.Intel -Bull:tues	47	35.3
Surveys	Bear:-5yrs	16.3	18.2
	AAII  -Bull :wed.	49.4	49.7
	Bear	21.1	22.5
COT:SPX w/w	large/small (net)k	(4k)/(6k)	(1k)/(7k)
COT:gold  comm.hedg	long-short.000	(99k)	(105k)
CEOinsider	selling	29:1	12:1
off.&bd b/s.vs.	10% holder b/s	160:25	210:25
3-box rev	Bullish%-	60	48
US equity -ICI	Fund Flows	WeekDelay	4.7B
MMF flows	Change in $B	6.1B	12.9B
MargDebt- top (300M)	monthly	464B	SEPT.
ETF:mthlyEqty/	Int'l/Bond-$B	1120/432/276
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation		0.49%	0.39%

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance

Subscribe in a reader

BUY HIGH, SELL HIGHER?