ZUGZWANG

In Chess jargon the German word Zugzwang means "Forced Move", wherein the opponent has to make only one choice, and it is usually not a good one! As the investing world moves forward, fewer and fewer choices are available to prudent investors, and economists and Fundamental Analysts seem to be in unanimous agreement (usually a bad contrary sign) that the U.S. stock market will rise in the next three months to 2 years or more.

The Technical picture, based here on Sentiment Indicators is not so one-sided, although there are some eye-popping moves from last week - more explanation at:    http://www.examiner.com/stock-market-in-san-francisco/brent-leonard

Exchange Volume was at a 2014 high (Selling Climax?); the CBOE put/call ratio as well. The Commitment of Traders "smart money" - large traders, was dead even (buy/short), while the small ones were net long 20k.Finally, Insider Trading dropped to 13:1 sellers, but the surprise number was the 10% stock holders almost unanimously buying more stock!

Here are the numbers:

Date>		10/17/2014	10/10/2014
Indices:	DJIA	16380	16544
	NAZ	4258	4276
	SPX	1886	1906
WklyVolume (Bshs).	naz/ny	12.7/5.2	11.3/4.2
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish		2.44	2.69
Sentiment:	put/call-CBOE	75	72
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8		22	21.2
Advance/Dec-NYSE..		2000/1250	801/2453
Weekly Net:		-750	-1652
Cumulative:		158724	160251
Weekly	NYSE hi/low	89/813	103/565
New Hi's/Low's	Nasdaq h/l	81/650	80/549
McClellan	Oscillator	10	-61
McClellanSum	.+750/-1000	-625	-475
Newsletter	Inv.Intel -Bull:tues	37.8	45.5
Surveys	Bear:-5yrs	17.3	14.1
	AAII  -Bull :wed.	42.7	39.9
	Bear	33.7	31
COT:SPX w/w	large/small (net)k	0k/20k	(7k)/24k
COT:gold  comm.hedg	long-short.000	(75k)	(63k)
CEOinsider	selling	13:1	40:1
off.&bd b/s.vs.	10% holder b/s	160:20BUY	175:40
3-box rev	Bullish%-	41	61
US equity -ICI	Fund Flows	WeekDelay	(.5B)
MMF flows	Change in $B	(22B)	17.0B
MargDebt- top (300M)	monthly
ETF:mthlyEqty/	Int'l/Bond-$B
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation		0.38%	0.43%

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance

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ZUGZWANG